The Ording Sports Report

R.I.P. Lakers (& Kobe)

2008-06-13T09:42:00.002-04:00

Ask anyone who considers him or herself an NBA fan, that game last night was a fairly obvious turning point. For Paul Pierce and Kobe Bryant, something changed in the 3rd quarter of Game 4.

Pierce became something more than a big-time scorer; he's now a big-time defender as well. While he had been doing an admirable job on Kobe throughout the first 3 games, last night's performance was remarkable. He held Bryant to just 19 points on 6-19 shooting. Even as LA was romping through the first half with an 18-point lead, Bryant was without a field goal. At the time, that stat was meant to show how balanced LA was and what a great distributor Bryant was. Yet, looking back, it's telling that Pierce was shutting Bryant down for an entire half. By the time Boston's offense got hot, and Bryant had to start shooting, it was too late to get a rhythm. Pierce used his size to trap and corral Bryant into difficult shots the entire game. Rarely was Bryant able to shoot cleanly. Too often, he had to pump fake or shoot fadeaways to get off a shot.

Combined with the record-setting comeback, Pierce's performance will undoubtedly vault him into the pantheon of Celtics' greats. In his 10th year with the team, Pierce has been a rock of consistency. He came back from multiple stab wounds and never missed a beat. He's played with great supporting casts and some downright awful ones. Yet, through it all, he never stopped putting up 20 a game. But, unlike past Celtics' stars, he had been unable to get his team to the Finals. They lost to the Nets in the 2002 E. Conference Finals but that would be as far as they'd get until this year.

Now up 3-1, a lead no team has ever relinquished in Finals history, the Celtics and Paul Pierce should establish a new legacy in Boston. It's been 20 years since the heyday of Larry Bird and Kevin McHale, but Pierce finally has Boston back on top. You can now put the former Kansas star right up there along with Parish, Johnson, Havlicek, White, Cowens, Russell, etc. I know he doesn't have the number of rings that those guys do, but he also didn't have Hall of Famers surrounding him like they did. Until this year. Too often, an epic defensive performance will be glossed over in favor of the flashy shot. However, Pierce's play on defense in Game 4 should not be forgotten. He shut down the reigning MVP on the road in a game that LA should have won easily.

While Pierce's legacy just went up, Bryant's has just taken a major hit. Look at this scenario for a second. Up 24 in the first half, at home, about to tie the series at 2-2, the next game is at home, you have the reigning MVP, ... and they lose??? How does that happen?

This has to be on Kobe. His bench didn't do much, but Odom and Gasol combined for 36 points on 14-24 and 20 rebounds. That's more than enough.

It's Game 4 of the NBA Finals. You have a chance to tie the series with another home game looming on Sunday. The Lakers had an easy opportunity to go back to Boston up 3-2. If this is the league's MVP, I want to know why he let that slip away. If you want to be better than Jordan, or even Shaq, you have to be able to win a game like this.

As Boston was furiously storming back in the 3rd quarter, and continuing to outplay LA in the 4th, Kobe seemed powerless to stop it. He couldn't get off a clean shot and when he did, there wasn't any rhythm to it. Too often, it looked forced. But, against a defense as strong as Boston's, Kobe found it difficult to do much.

You know how often we talk about MJ's 'flu game' or his GW shot against Utah, I think this game may have the same effect on Kobe. He completely bombed in a game that LA had to have, and basically did have for half the game. His golden opportunity to bring LA back in the series was for naught. An MVP shouldn't be doing this at home in the playoffs (well unless you're Dirk Nowitzki).

Bryant is still a no-doubt Hall of Famer, and at age 29, still has plenty left in the tank. But, I'm wondering what his legacy will be if he never wins another title. Is it the 3 titles he won with Shaq? Or will it be Game 4 of the 2008 NBA Finals where he played horribly and let Boston erase a record-setting deficit?

The D-Train has D-Railed

2008-06-10T14:47:00.003-04:00

Of all the things that have gone wrong for the Tigers in 2008 -- Bondo, Verlander, Zumaya and Rodney, Pudge, Granderson, etc. -- the biggest disappointment has been the shocking deterioration of Dontrelle Willis' skills.

Once one of the game's best and most exciting pitchers, Willis has lost all control of his pitches. He looks lost and frustrated on the mound. It's obvious even he doesn't know where to turn. Jim Leyland and Chuck Hernandez must be thinking the same thing. They've given him a rehab assignment in the minors, a stint in the bullpen, nothing has worked yet. There were certainly signs of this in 2006-7 when Willis walked 170 men. Compare that to his first 3 years where he allowed 174 walks. Apparently Hernandez doesn't have the magic touch that Leo Mazzone or Dave Duncan have. Because Willis has now walked 21 in 11.1 innings with the Tigers. What was once a warning sign is now an alarming trend. Unfortunately, there is little Detroit can do about it.

As a 5-year veteran, Willis has the right to refuse any minor league assignment. Obviously, Willis needs some work where he doesn't have any pressure on him. Letting him work this out in A-ball seems like the best idea, but for someone like Willis who has played in a World Series and won 22 games, why would he accept that? And, are we going to put this high-priced pitcher into the backend of the bullpen? With his control, we could really just use him in mop-up situations. I highly doubt that would cure his psychological or physical problems. It would just embarrass and frustrate him even further. Best-case scenario, we convince Willis to go on the DL with some injury like "tired arm" or tendinitis. Then, we can still pay him his major-league salary and he gets to rehab on his own without any pressure.

In a game as hard as baseball, players can make the most difficult plays seem like a cinch. Yet, when those same players lose that ability, it can happen rapidly and often times, it's downright sad to watch. Most baseball fans know about the Steve Blass Disease. Named after the former Pirates pitcher, Blass won 78 games between 1968-1972. Then, he lost all ability to hit the strike zone. In 1972, Blass walked 84 in 249.2 innings. In 1973, he walked 84 in 88.2 innings (he also hit 12 and threw 9 wild pitches). He came back once more in 1974, but was done after walking 7 and allowing 8 runs in 5 innings.

After Blass, there were the famous cases of Mark Wohlers, Chuck Knoblauch, and Rick Ankiel. Wohlers saved 97 games for Atlanta between 1995-1997. In 1998, he had a 10.18 ERA after walking 33 in 20.2 innings. After missing all of 1999 while trying to get his control back, Wohlers would come back for 2000-02, pitching for Cincinnati, New York AL, and Cleveland. But, he was never more than a league-average reliever.

Knoblauch was once a Gold Glove second baseman for the Minnesota Twins before being traded to the Yankees. Other than his rookie season, Knoblauch never made more than 11 errors in a season for the Twins. With New York, he averaged 18/yr before moving to the OF. He simply could not make the throw to first base. Seemingly the easiest throw on the infield, it became torture to Knoblauch and the NY media were all over him. His offense couldn't support the move to the OF and he retired at age 33.

Ankiel may be the best-case scenario for Willis, actually. Once the game's top pitching prospect, Ankiel bewildered lefty hitters in the NL with his big, looping curveball in 1999 and 2000. At age 20, Ankiel was already starting for the Cardinals in the playoffs. But, it was in that 2000 postseason that Ankiel imploded. In 4 innings over 3 games, Ankiel walked 11 men and threw numerous wild pitches that were nowhere close to the catcher. At first, it seemed as if it was just the high-pressure situation getting to the youngster. But, the spring of 2001 found Ankiel no different. He still couldn't find the plate and he was sent to the minors. After a couple arm surgeries, Ankiel found himself back in the majors in 2004. He didn't embarrass, in fact, he only walked 1 man in 10 innings. But, the Cards brass and Ankiel both knew he wasn't the same dominating pitcher. From there, Ankiel went back to the low minors and became an outfielder. Now, in his 2nd year as the Cards' CF and only 28 years old, Ankiel has become an above-average hitter and a solid defender.

For Willis, is the Ankiel route possible or even necessary? I honestly think it may be. The 3-year trend is there, and while he hasn't thrown the ghastly wild pitches that got Ankiel into trouble, Willis is nowhere near the pitcher he was in 2005. He has become a liability to his team. With the way he can hit the ball, I have no doubt that Willis can be a major league outfielder, and probably out-hit Ankiel. Baseball Prospectus recently named Willis as the game's best hitting pitcher. They noted that he gives his team an extra 8.7 runs a season with his bat, which is a full 2 runs better than runner-up Micah Owings. Last year, Willis had 7 extra base hits in only 63 ABs. The big difference is that Willis is already 28 years old, Ankiel was 24 when he made the switch to hitting. It took him a little over two years to get back to the majors. Assuming Willis would want to switch, it probably wouldn't happen until next season, after he's exhausted all options from the pitching side. At that point, Willis will be 29. If he made Ankiel-like progress, he'd back in the majors at age 31 or so. That would still give him about 5 years to be a productive hitter. But, I'm not convinced he'd want to switch at his age. Still the similarities between the two young lefties are hard to ignore, and it would be quite interesting to see Willis bat full-time.

UPDATE: Willis has been sent to Class-A Lakeland. There, he will be able to work on his mechanics with no pressure or a timetable for return. I love this idea. Let him work out what he needs to work out. He won't have to deal with the spotlight of the major league media or major league hitters. I'm glad Dontrelle has accepted this assignment and I wish him the best in his recovery from whatever is ailing him right now. As sad as it is for the fans to watch, it must be that much worse for him to go through it personally.

The Wings Win Again

2008-06-05T15:40:00.004-04:00

Now, I don't claim to be the most knowledgeable hockey fan. I know much, much more about basketball, baseball, football, and even golf. But, I know the rules, the good players and teams, some history. It's the lesser players and strategy that escape me.

After all, I've really only enjoyed hockey in person, never on TV. When the subject of the Red Wings came up, I'd always make some sarcastic comment about how hockey sucks. In fact, I've usually rooted against the Wings just to piss off everyone else. It's not nice, I know, but it made me feel better. I felt that the worse the Wings were, the worse it was for hockey fans. But, I think the tide may be changing for me. After watching more hockey in the past week than I have in the past 3 years, I feel like a born-again hockey fan. I'm not ready to call myself a Wings fan yet. I would never jump on a bandwagon like that. I've seen enough girls in pink Red Sox hats to know differently. But, I can certainly be a hockey fan, can't I? Maybe I'm overreacting, this could just be a high from watching the Finals with a large group of friends.

I watched Game 6 at a friend's house before heading to downtown Royal Oak for the celebration. The streets were lined with people, horns were going off left and right, and I think I gave more high-fives than I care to admit. A couple of my buddies and I just set off down the street and took it all in. We stopped to have one drink at a bar, but that turned out to be fairly anticlimactic. Simply going up and down Main St. was more exhilarating. Mind you, this wasn't a weekend night. This wasn't the victory parade. This was simply a bunch of sports fans gathering to celebrate a Stanley Cup together. I ran into people I hadn't seen in years, including, Steve Feeman, with whom I played baseball when I was about 11. He was nice enough to remind me of the MVP Award I should've received in our travel baseball league. That was around the peak of my athletic abilities apparently.

Whether it's hockey, baseball, football, whatever, this is what sports is all about. Which is why I'm confused now as to why I always hated hockey. It's low scoring, but I enjoy watching the World Cup. It has a lot of foreign players, but then so does every sports league now. Maybe I was just being stubborn, my little rebellious move to be different. Yet, there I was last night celebrating with everyone else on Main St. When people ask why I love sports so much, the scene in Royal Oak has to be near the top of my list. Granted, the numbers and analysis are pretty darn compelling, but when it comes right down to it, there's not much better than the people.

I don't mean to get too preachy here, but sports can bring people together from all walks of life. I'm sure most of you have sat a bar or sporting event and talked with someone you've just met about the game. When the team does well, you celebrate together. When the team does bad, both agree that you could do better than any of them. All of sudden, you're arguing with complete strangers over who should've won the MVP or whether the ref made a bad call in the first period. I've argued with a 300 lb. Puerto Rican at 3:30 am in South Bend over how many points Scottie Pippen averaged in 1994. Of course, that's a tad extreme, but you get the point. When you have nothing else in common, sports will give you something to talk about.

Last night proved to me once again how great sports can be, even the ones that I don't necessarily love. I may not know exactly who Jiri Hudler or Brett Lebda is, even if I can name the entire Pistons roster from their Bad Boy teams or who won the World Series in 1926. But, it's something I'll work on for next year in hopes of adding hockey to my arsenal of sports knowledge. Lord knows if I'm going to be celebrating with the real hockey fans, I better start acting like one as well.

Flip Saunders Fired

2008-06-03T11:50:00.002-04:00

Well, I'm sure we all saw this coming. I know I did. No Pistons coach has lasted more than 3 years since Chuck Daly from 1983-1991. The last 3 coaching stints have been particularly strange.

Rick Carlisle won 100 games in '01-02, yet was fired because he supposedly didn't see eye-to-eye with Joe Dumars and Bill Davidson.

Larry Brown won 108 games the next 2 seasons, including an NBA title and a Finals loss, but was canned after looking for another job during the season. Basically, Brown had his bags packed and ready to leave before the Pistons closed out the regular season.

Now, Dumars has shown Flip Saunders the door today after winning 176 games over 3 years. Saunders' great downfall was his 3 consecutive Eastern Conference Finals losses.

Dumars can continue to fire coaches every couple years, but it seems to me that the problem lies elsewhere. We've had largely the same cast of characters for the past 5 years and nothing has changed. Every year, we win 50+ games, cruise through the first two rounds of the playoffs, then, bam!, something changes. All of a sudden, we go through scoring droughts and commit dumb fouls. We struggle to keep our emotions intact as the deficit grows. As a veteran-laden team, that type of immature behavior and sloppy play at such a crucial time of the year is mind-boggling.

I think the time is right to move on from some players, rather than coaches. We've gone as far with this current core as we can possibly go. I hope Dumars realizes this as well and begins making the necessary changes.

Wallace is the first to go in my opinion. He turns 34 in September and will be in the last year of his contract. If we can get the right price for him, I would certainly set him free. His technicals were down in the regular season, but they went right back up in the playoffs. His inability to contain his emotions is no longer a source of motivation and inspiration for us. It's a nuisance and something that shouldn't be tolerated from a supposed team leader.

The Pistons have solid replacements for him in Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson. The pair is younger, cheaper, and a whole lot more athletic. For some reason, perhaps matchups, Maxiell's minutes have yo-yoed up and down recently. To maximize his full potential, we have to give the man some consistent time. There's no other way to establish a rhythm. Saunders was hesitant to use Maxiell against taller players, but I think his leaping ability and strength compensate for his smaller stature. Johnson ran into too much trouble to receive more PT, but a little more practice can cure that quickly. He too is extremely athletic and an intelligent player for his age. I already see tremendous potential in his post moves and ability to shoot a mid-range J. Given more regular playing time, I can easily see Johnson and Maxiell surpassing Wallace's production.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Dumars move Billups or Hamilton, if he finds the right deal. Both have tons of extra mileage on their bodies and are on the wrong side of 30. Historically, guards have shown to break down quicker than big men. That may be more true of someone like Hamilton who takes such a pounding moving off the ball. Whomever Dumars chooses to move, he has a future All-Star waiting in the wings in Rodney Stuckey. The Eastern Washington alum can play the 1 or 2 because of his size/speed combo. While I think Wallace will be moved before either starting guard, some type of shake-up must happen. Moving a starting guard would send that message.

Early reports have Michael Curry being named the new head coach. This may look radical at first, given Curry's lack of coaching experience (1 year as a Piston assistant). However, he has always been that "coach on the floor" type similar to Avery Johnson. And, look at the job Johnson did with his limited coaching experience. Curry was a captain for the Pistons and the Bucks, while also serving for a number of years as the NBA Players Union President. I actually love this decision, should it go through. Earlier, I said that the coach wasn't the problem, but since Saunders is already gone, I am in favor of hiring Michael Curry. The Pistons starters seem to really respect Curry and what he has to say. If you watch the players during timeouts and before they go back to the floor, look at who they are talking to. It's rarely Saunders; it's usually Curry or Terry Porter. While Dumars has allowed Porter to interview with Phoenix and Chicago, he has kept Curry under lock and key. Now, we know why. Dumars was saving Curry for this job. Let's not just hire a big name to satisfy a few fans. Hire the guy who will do a good job and have players respect him. Because really, that's all that NBA coaching is about: Getting the players to respect you and work hard for you.

Saunders may have won almost 60 games a year, but in this new world of Palace sellouts and yearly contention, that was not enough. All of the facial tics and quasi-mullets weren't going to save Flip from losing his job. He never seemed to connect with the players or fans. There was always one more thing he could've done or one thing he didn't do right. Those problems came to fruition moreso in the playoffs with the heightened expectations. Saunders never got over that final hump. Whether it was truly his fault will never be determined. But, I think Dumars has to start over for 2008-09 and it begins with a new coach. Soon enough, we could wave goodbye to Wallace, McDyess, maybe even Hamilton. One thing is for certain, this is bound to be an intriguing summer, starting with the Draft on June 26.

Chi-Town, Son

2008-06-01T16:44:00.003-04:00

So, I've been in Chicago with my boys this weekend and I must say, this is an incredible sports city. We partied in Wrigleyville on Friday after the Cubs comeback win. Where else can you find a jam-packed bar at 4 on a Friday?

Although the Chi Sox are on tv, the North Side is definitely a Cubs-only territory. I'm one of the biggest Braves fans you'll meet, but I found myself strangely rooting for the Cubs this weekend. It's infectious how the Lovable Losers affect you.

I know this is supposed to be a sports blog. And, we did watch the Pistons and Wings at the bar. But, something about this town just turns it up a notch. Suddenly, a Pistons loss doesn't feel so bad, the friendly confines of Wrigley capture our spirits and it doesn't matter so much anymore.

It's a Sunday afternoon and we just hit up the brunch buffet at a local bar called Duffy's. 105 mimosas later and we're ready to go home. But, if we had the money, we would definitely stick around. $5 beers do a number on the wallet for sure.

I have to give thanks and the utmost respect to my lifelong friend, the Shue, and his roommate Ross. This is normally a 100% sports blog, but the absolutely gorgeous stuffed pizza, waitresses , and bachelorette parties take priority.

Much thanks to Andrea, Ashley, Jake, Annie, Steve and his thumbs-up. Let's just say that Hydrate is a rousing good time and you should never leave home without the boys you grew up with.

Thursday Thoughts

2008-05-29T16:39:00.003-04:00

- Pistons and youngsters just don't go together do they? In recent times, our coaches have been reluctant to play the newbies. Granted, we've have a terrific veteran starting five, but eventually those guys are going to decline or move on. It seems Joe Dumars finally realized this and gave an edict to Flip Saunders to play the young players this season. Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, Arron Afflalo, and Amir Johnson all played major minutes off the bench in 2008. While Saunders has slashed the rotation in the playoffs, Stuckey and Maxiell have still been playing in crucial situations. I've seen the evolution of Maxiell long enough to expect solid play from him. But, even I couldn't foresee the excellent play of Stuckey in this postseason. Not since Tayshaun Prince's coming out party in 2003 has a Piston rookie contributed like this. Back then, Prince was inserted into the lineup in the Orlando series over Michael Curry after barely playing in the regular season. He helped shut down Tracy McGrady and bring the Pistons back from a 3-1 deficit. Then, he made the game-winning spinning hook shot against Philadelphia (which I heard about from a teacher as it was during our senior formal).

Now we have Rodney Stuckey picking up the slack from a hobbled Chauncey Billups. I've never been more excited about the future of the Pistons than when I watch Stuckey drive fearlessly to the hole and draw a foul. His strength and quickness combination is uncanny. For a guy who played just two years at Eastern Washington and missed 25 games this year, I can't believe he's already playing fourth-quarter playoff minutes against the Boston Celtics.

Depending on the health of Rip Hamilton's elbow, we may see Stuckey starting on Friday night. He certainly has the height (6'5") to play the 2-guard. And, our offense doesn't miss much when Billups is coming off screens instead of handling the ball.

- Regarding the Hamilton injury, I hope this doesn't have the same effect it had on Miami in 2005. That season, Wade got hurt just as Miami was going up 3-2 in the E.C. Finals. Detroit proceeded to take the final 2 games with Wade less than 100%. Now, Detroit is facing elimination with its leading scorer disabled. Now, I'm positive Stuckey offers more production than Damon Jones or Keyon Dooling did. We've seen what Stuckey and Hunter are capable of. But, if Hamilton does have to sit out, will Saunders go to Jarvis Hayes, Arron Afflalo, or Juan Dixon. Hayes was a great shooter for us in the reg. season, but he has seen his minutes dwindle in the playoffs. Afflalo and Dixon might as well of stayed at home once April ended. Something tells me Saunders would go to Hayes. Dixon has been with the team for only a few months and I don't see Saunders trusting him now. As for Afflalo, it's more a case of not wanting too many rookies on the court. Having him and Hunter on the floor might work as a defensive unit for short bursts actually. I can see that being reminiscent of the Mike James/Hunter combo in 2004. However, we would need a solid offensive frontcourt in place for that rotation. Hayes, however, offers offense and big enough body to play defense for a spell. He won't remind anyone of Prince, or even Hamilton, but I think he has the talent to play more than he is now. You know what, let's just hope Hamilton plays and this scenario never happens.

- Boston has wilted in the 4th quarter in the last two games. They collapsed down the stretch in Game 4, allowing Detroit to pull away. In Game 5, they had a large enough lead that their collapse didn't prevent a win. Still, that type of play at home has to say something about Detroit's chances to come back. For all the Pistons fans who have watched this team since 2003, you know Detroit will come out with a renewed passion in Game 6 and win going away. The question is what happens in Game 7. Can Boston really win 3 Game 7's in a row? If Ray Allen continues to play like he should, then Detroit is in for a tough battle. We weren't exactly running roughshod over the Celtics when he was struggling. Now that his shot is back, our defensive assignment just got that much tougher. I'd love to see what Afflalo can do for a few minutes, but like I said earlier, I don't think Saunders is confident playing yet another rookie. Really, though, Afflalo played in two consecutive Final Fours at UCLA. It's not like he's never seen a pressure-packed situation before.

- On to the Tigers. Gary Sheffield has made his long-awaited trip to the DL and it should be a while before he returns. Detroit called up 25-year-old lefty slugger Jeff Larish from AAA to replace him. Larish was hitting .277/.372/.592 at Toledo. He'll likely play DH against righties and may play some 1B if Leyland gives Cabrera a rest. Larish has done nothing but rake since being drafted out of Arizona St. I expect a little more out of him than Matt Joyce who was more of a late bloomer. Joyce had a terrific start to 2008 at AAA after inconsistency throughout the minors. Larish's track record suggests a better player and one that should contribute immediately.

- Larish, Joyce, Armando Galarraga, Clete Thomas, Freddy Dolsi. Who among us expected these names to dot the 2008 Tigers roster before the September 1st callups? This story has beaten like a dead horse already, but one thing bears mentioning. Detroit traded away its top prospects, save Rick Porcello, for a run at the Series this year. Now, that injuries and ineffectiveness have hit, we've had to turn to our second-tier prospects. This is obviously the worst-case scenario, but let's look at the positives. It hasn't been the fault of the youngsters. Galarraga has been our most consistent starter. Dolsi has made the jump from Single-A and only allowed 2 runs in 9.2 innings. Thomas showed little power in his first go-round with Detroit but he made contact and got on-base at a reasonable clip. Joyce was sent down this morning after striking out in 6 of his last 10 ABs. There was no question that the kid could smash a fastball. But teams soon figured out his weakness for the breaking ball and crushed his spirits. Nevertheless, I think Detroit has found an above-average corner outfielder for 2009.

Photo Credit:Photo by D. Lippitt/Einstein/NBAE via Getty Images)

NCAA Baseball Regional

2008-05-28T15:24:00.003-04:00

This weekend, Michigan will be host to one of the 16 NCAA Baseball Regionals. It's the first time the Wolverines have hosted the event since 1986. Competing with Michigan will be #1 seed Arizona, #3 Kentucky, and #4 Eastern Michigan. The Wolverines are the only #2 seed to host a regional in 2008.

Many people have debated whether Michigan deserves a hosting nod. Critics point to their 1-4 record against the RPI top 64. The weak schedule has been a thorn in the Wolverines' side for years now. Their location in the North means they have to play the first month of the season on the road. While most of the good teams are located in the South and West, Michigan can't afford to overload its schedule on these teams to improve its schedule. Playing on the road for a month at a time is difficult enough. That's why the Wolverines have consistently played lower-class Southern teams in advance of the Big Ten campaign.

Again, Michigan can't be faulted for its Big Ten schedule. The league is very much a mid-major in baseball, routinely sending only one or two teams to the NCAA Tournament (Michigan is the lone representative in 2008). But, while basketball teams like Memphis and Gonzaga can compensate for weak conferences by scheduling tough opponents early in the year, the poor Northern weather forbids Michigan from doing the same. Playing multiple tough opponents on the road would do nothing to help our reputation. Their needs to be a good balance of home and road competition for that tactic to work. Or else, our team would be deflated from traveling thousands of miles down to Arizona or Florida to play a top-ranked squad.

Also, while many of these top warm-weather programs can schedule mid-week games against good competition, Michigan is forced to pick among the nearby MAC schools for its games. Obviously, it's tough to find a team to travel far for a Wednesday afternoon game with classes going on. Whereas it's too difficult to find tough nearby competition for warm-weather schools.

That was a bit of a rant, but I'm trying to put into perspective the odds that the Michigan baseball squad goes up against. Now, while some critics have questioned the hosting nod, there are others that have been confident for awhile that the Wolverines would get the regional.

Even before the season began, the NCAA was leaning towards helping the Northern and Midwestern schools. It established a uniform start date for games as February 22. Before 2008, many warm-weather schools got a head-start because of the balmy January and February climate. Schools like Michigan would then come down to start its season during its Spring Break and already be behind 20 games.

With that rule change in place, there were also rumors that the NCAA wanted to find a northern school to host. When Michigan began romping through the Big Ten, I believe the NCAA selection committee was quite happy. With a Big Ten record 26 wins and 45 overall, it was easy to pick Michigan as a host.

I'm also leaving out perhaps the biggest piece of the puzzle: The Fred Wilpon Complex and Ray Fisher Stadium. Michigan's newest athletic achievement comes courtesy of New York Mets owner Fred Wilpon. The Wolverines' recent success no doubt provided the motivation to rebuild the venerable stadium. With the new complex and added amenities, the NCAA was given even more reason to award a regional to Michigan. I went to almost every home game this year, and I can say, the stadium looks great. There are new concession stands, bathrooms, luxury boxes, press boxes, chairback seats, indoor hitting facilities, and a so-called Brick Monster in leftfield. The wall in leftfield is meant to give the stadium a bit of character, though I feel it looks out of place so far. Power-hitting righty Zach Putnam might agree with me as well.

As the #2 seed, the Wolverines will play Kentucky on Friday. The Wolverines are loaded on offense. Just take a quick glance at this lineup

SS Jason Christian .321/.428/.554

2B Leif Mahler .300/.378/.414

1B Nate Recknagel .372/.466/.758

P/DH Zach Putnam .309/.398/.543

3B Adam Abraham .342/.411/.525

CF Kevin Cislo .363/.471/.435

LF Derek VanBuskirk .303/.391/.505

C Chris Berset .245/.339/.300

RF Ryan LaMarre .290/.354/.374

Coach Rich Maloney will also slide Recknagel to catcher and play Mike Dufek (.317/.355/.465) at 1B. He may also play Alan Oaks (.444 SLG) over LaMarre to add more power.

The top 7 spots in the order are all difficult outs, especially Recknagel. Take another look at that slugging %. With 23 HR, Recknagel set the school's single-season record. He needs 3 more to tie Casey Close for the Michigan career record of 46. However, if you add his five HR at Oakland in his freshman year, Recknagel would have 48.

There is little doubt the offense can put runs on the board, especially in their home park. My fears lie in the pitching. Michigan has 3 tremendous arms, two starting and one in the pen.

Chris Fetter leads the team in ERA (2.39), innings (86.2), strikeouts (75), batting average against (.205), and complete games (4). At 6'8" 230, the big righty used his intimidating presence and solid command to amass a 10-1 mark. In fact, he tends to be a softer thrower than teammate and Big 10 Pitcher of the Year Zach Putnam.

Putnam, 6'2" 215, has long been one of the state's top players. Drafted by the Tigers out of Pioneer High School in Ann Arbor, Putnam chose to attend Michigan. He has been the school's top two-way player ever since. He hit a career-high 9 HR this year, but also tallied a 2.64 ERA with an 8-0 record.

Those two will start the first two games of the regional. Coming out of the pen will be Michael Powers. He was named Big Ten Tournament MVP after saving all 3 games last weekend. His 26 appearances were 8 more than any other pitcher on the team. Surprisingly, he was third on the team in innings pitched because Maloney couldn't settle on a solid rotation.

And, that question mark behind Putnam and Fetter will be the biggest test of the weekend. The Wolverines need a 3rd and 4th starter to step up for Sunday and possibly Monday. Right now, I imagine those two starts would go to Eric Katzmann or Kolby Wood. However, both have K/BB ratios hovering around 1/1. Last year's #3, Mike Wilson, has fallen to a 8.73 ERA in 9 starts and can no longer be trusted in close games. Playing teams like Kentucky and Arizona, who both totaled more than 38 victories playing in the SEC and Pac-10, it will be imperative to stay in the game early. If we get down 3 or 4 runs quickly, that may take our home crowd out of the game and force the back of our bullpen to pitch.

I'm not going to pretend to analyze Arizona and Kentucky. I don't know nearly enough about college baseball outside the Big 10 to make that up. All I know is those teams have plenty of experience and talent. For a little perspective, Arizona split its season series with Arizona St. while Michigan lost twice to the Sun Devils. But, that was back in February and neither Putnam or Fetter pitched. Michigan has been on a roll lately, tearing through the conference. I predict a couple low-scoring pitching duels Friday and Saturday before Michigan's bats have to come alive for the (please, please) championship on Sunday.

A Walk in the Park Pt. 2

2008-05-27T13:57:00.003-04:00

After a long weekend camping in Canada, I'm back with Pt. II of my look around the majors. Today, I'm examining the National League team-by-team. I covered the AL on Thursday.

NL East

Florida

Best Player- Dan Uggla. The Marlin 2nd baseman, already one of the best power-hitters at his position, has added even more thump in 2008. He has set the Marlin record for HR in a month in May and has compiled 36 extra-base hits so far. Much like fellow 2B Jeff Kent, he got a late start to his career, but has not wasted any time establishing himself as an All-Star.

Best Pitcher- Andrew Miller. As surprising as this may be, Miller has become the Marlins' ace. While Scott Olsen and Mark Hendrickson have better ERAs, their low K totals forecast an eventual downfall. Miller, though, has done nothing but improve since the season began. In his four May starts, Miller has averaged 6+ K, 1 run, and 4 hits allowed in 6+ innings a start. In fact, he struck out 9 in his last start against Arizona.

Biggest Disappointment- Cameron Maybin. Yes, he's in the minors, but Florida has been so successful in the majors, there are not any true disappointments. But, Maybin's performance in AA has to be disheartening to Marlins' personnel execs. He's struck out 67 times in 181 AB and his only hitting .249. I discussed this a couple weeks ago, but Maybin has done little to improve since then.

Atlanta

Best Player- Chipper Jones. Was there really any doubt? Jones has put this team on his back, putting them a game behind Florida in the division. His .416/.490/.674 line is near Bonds-ian. It may be premature to discuss a run at .400. But, Jones's tendency to miss a few games here and there may help his case. By giving him fewer at-bats, Jones may be able to qualify for the batting title near the minimum total; thus, Jones will have less chances to make outs. At age 36, it's remarkable he's hit this well for even two months.

Best Pitcher- Jair Jurrjens. With Glavine continuing his age-related decline and Smoltz getting hurt, Jurrjens and Tim Hudson have stepped up to lead Atlanta. However, Jurrjens has been slightly better. To get him and OF prospect Gorkys Hernandez for Renteria has been a steal thus far for the Braves. Jurrjens still walks too many people, but his high K totals have compensated nicely.

Biggest Disappointment- Jeff Francoeur. His 2005 rookie year set everyone's expectations far too high. By hitting 14 HR in 257 AB and basically hitting everything thrown to him, Francoeur looked like the next big thing. Yet, once pitchers recognized his horrible plate discipline, Francoeur's play has been very below-average. An on-base % under .330 and a SLG under .450 for an everyday RF is unacceptable. He seemed to have made some gains last year, but he has given them back in his 4th year, showing less power and making too many outs.

Philadelphia

Best Player- Chase Utley. Easily the best 2B in the league, Utley leads the Phillies in all major hitting categories. See the sidebar for more on Utley.

Best Pitcher- Cole Hamels. Only 24, Hamels has been a solid major-league starter for 3 years now. His ERA has gone down every year, while his K totals have gone up. Pitching at Citizens Bank Field, his HR total will always be high. But, he compensates by rarely walking hitters. With the struggles of Brett Myers and inevitable retirement of Jamie Moyer, Hamels will have to continue to throw like this for Philly to stay competitive.

Biggest Disappointment- Ryan Howard. He has started to heat up recently, but he will still have a hard time replicating anything close to his career numbers. He's currently on pace for 229 Ks, which would easily top his 199 from last year. At 28 years old, Howard doesn't project to get any better than this. His 58 HR peak of 2006 may not be seen again. It's likely Howard follows Adam Dunn's career path with a better AVG and lower OBP.

New York

Best Player- David Wright. I'm still quite amazed Wright isn't more popular. Playing so well in New York both offensively and defensively should garner more attention. He has consistently put up Hall of Fame type numbers since he came into the league. You can't blame Wright for the Mets struggles when Delgado, Beltran, Reyes, and Castillo have failed to live up to their reputations.

Best Pitcher- Johan Santana. While he hasn't been able to get back to his 2004-2006 peak, Santana is still one of the league's best pitchers. Unfortunately, his HR total went up by about 10 last year. He is on pace to match that again in 2008. Those extra homeruns are the only thing keeping his ERA above 3.00.

Biggest Disappointment- Mike Pelfrey. We've seen Delgado on the decline for a couple years now. And we all knew Pedro would get hurt again. But, Pelfrey's continued struggles has to be worse for Mets fans. Their former top pitching prospect, Pelfrey has now started 26 games over 3 years with New York. His ERA sits at 5.48 with a 81/75 K/BB ratio. Why fire Willie Randolph when the front office can't find 3 healthy, effective pitchers to slot in behind Santana and John Maine?

Washington

Best Player- Cristian Guzman. Another default selection here. Guzman is on pace for his best full season since 2001, but that still doesn't mean he should be your team's best player. He doesn't have the speed anymore, but he has adjusted by striking out less and hitting a few more HR. Nevertheless, Ryan Zimmerman should be ashamed.

Best Pitcher- John Lannan. The rookie from New York has led the no-name Nationals staff in 2008.

Biggest Disappointment- When Zimmerman came into the league in 2005, many thought he and David Wright would battle for 3B supremacy for years. While Wright has improved his stats yearly, Zimmerman has seen his drop each year. He has walked only 9 times this year while slugging just .427. His excellent defense is keeping him afloat, but much more was projected for him.

NL Central

Chicago

Best Player- Geovany Soto. This one was incredibly tough, considering the terrific production the Cubs have gotten on offense. Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, DeRosa, and Fukudome have all played well, but Soto has the team's highest OPS along with playing superb defense. At catcher, Soto's production is most valuable because of the physical demands. He'll have to battle Russell Martin and Brian McCann for the All-Star nod, but, at the very least, he's a leading candidate for Rookie of the Year.

Best Pitcher- Carlos Zambrano. Not many pitchers possess Zambrano's combination of hitting and pitching. Even though he constantly sits among the league leaders in innings pitched, he's shown no signs of slowing down. Who would've thought back in 2003 that Prior would be in the minors, Wood in the bullpen, and Zambrano still among the league's best?

Biggest Disappointment- Felix Pie. The Cubs' top OF prospect has failed to deliver the past 2 years. His .222/.286/.286 line deservedly gave way to Reed Johnson, who hasn't hit much better. But Pie's combination of youth/speed/power was supposed to translate well. Pie's poor plate discipline has rendered him ineffective.

St. Louis

Best Player- Ryan Ludwick. The career minor leaguer has come out of nowhere to lead the Cards in OPS. He's outslugging Pujols by 130 points and has managed to secure an everyday job in the Cardinals' crowded outfield. He's always been known as a power hitter in the minors, but teams didn't think he had the secondary skills or defense to play full-time. Yet, here he is, along with former pitcher Rick Ankiel, giving St. Louis two solid OFs.

Best Pitcher- Adam Wainwright. The Braves rarely trade away good pitchers, but they let one go in Wainwright. He is putting together another solid campaign. Along with Todd Wellemeyer, Kyle Lohse, and Braden Looper, Wainwright and the Cards have been a surprising hit on the mound. I would only bet on Wainwright for long-term success however.

Biggest Disappointment- Troy Glaus. If healthy, Glaus is one of the game's most powerful 3B. Therefore, I have to think something is wrong with Glaus. He has just 2 HR in 174 ABs. If the Cards are to overtake Chicago, they will need Glaus to hit like he is capable of. He's still getting on base, but his lack of power is disconcerting.

Houston

Best Player- Lance Berkman. Year in and year out, Berkman carries the Astros offensively. This year they've simply replaced poor hitters Adam Everett and Brad Ausmus with Michael Bourn and J.R. Towles. Either way, Berkman is the one constant through it all. Though he has moved defensively to first base, he's shown no signs of a drop-off on offense.

Best Pitcher- Wandy Rodriguez. He's only started 4 games due to injury, but the Astros' staff has struggled. Shawn Chacon, Brandon Backe, and Roy Oswalt have combined to give up 36 HR in 190 innings. Rodriguez had 24 Ks in his 23.1 innings and was looking like the pitcher he was projected to be 3 years ago. Injuries and poor control derailed his train, but hopefully this is his year.

Biggest Disappointment- Roy Oswalt. We may be seeing the decline of little Roy Oswalt. His K totals have dropped for 4 years as his walks have risen. He's also been giving up more homers. That shows he is losing speed on his fastball and hasn't adjusted by locating better. His small frame was bound to break down quicker than bigger pitchers, but to come at age 30 is tough to take.

Pittsburgh

Best Player- Nate McLouth. I really could have picked any of the Pirates OFs as Jason Bay and Xavier Nady are raking as well. But, McLouth has played the best. He leads the team in almost every offensive category in his third year. The Muskegon native is doing everything from taking walks to stealing bases. Now, if only Pittsburgh could get some production from its infield.

Best Pitcher- John Grabow/Matt Capps. The quartet of young starters in the Pirates' rotation (Duke, Maholm, Snell, Gorzelanny) have started slowly. But the back end of the bullpen has been stellar, particularly Grabow and Capps. Grabow, a lefty, strikes out 8.5 per 9 and leads the team with 25 appearances. Capps, a big righty, closes with 10 saves.

Biggest Disappointment- Freddy Sanchez. After 3 solid years, including 2006 where he hit .344, Sanchez has dropped down to .245/.275/.320. Granted, second base is a position where you can get away with lower numbers. But, that line isn't going to cut it at any spot. Sanchez was supposed to be the one Pirate that could be counted upon. Yet, he's struggled while Nady and McLouth have come through on their potential.

Milwaukee

Best Player- Ryan Braun. There has been the requisite decline for a second-year player. Teams have gotten more knowledge on him and pitched him tougher. Yet, he's still hitting .281/.309/.557. The on-base % concerns me, but unlike another young OF Francoeur, Braun hits with a high enough average to make up for that. So far, Alfonso Soriano has done the same thing. Braun is young and has time to adjust, but if he doesn't he should still be an above-average OF.

Best Pitcher- Ben Sheets. He's yet to have a major injury, knock on wood, but there are always concerns with his fragility. Nevertheless, Sheets has HOF ability when healthy. He has a 2.93 ERA and 55 Ks already in 2008. His HR totals are high, but he has never walked enough people for that to be a concern. While the team's other four starters have struggled, Sheets has cruised through his first 10 starts looking like a Cy Young candidate.

Biggest Disappointment- The Brewers Infield. Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, and Hall were expected to form one of the game's most productive infields. Yet, here we are at the end of May and all four are under their career norms. Fielder has been heating up recently and should be back to normal soon. However, as more time passes, it looks like we may never see the full potential of Hardy or Weeks.

Cincinnati

Best Player- Adam Dunn. The man may not possess the most graceful of baseball skills, but all he does is get the job done. He once again has a .400 OBP and .550 SLG. The Ks are ugly and so is his lumbering defense. But, when you're always on base and helping your team score runs, you can overlook that stuff. He may have to move to the AL soon with Joey Votto grabbing the first base job, but for now, I hope Reds fans appreciate Dunn's talents.

Best Pitcher- Edinson Volquez. Once a top prospect for the Rangers, Volquez failed in 3 different stints with the big league club. Traded to Cincy in the offseason, Volquez has established himself as a bona fide starter at age 24. He has an incredible 1.31 ERA with 76 K in only 62 innings. He's also given up just 1 home run in 31 innings at his launching pad of a home field. Combined with Aaron Harang and Johnny Cueto, the Reds have done a fine job building a rotation.

Biggest Disappointment- Ken Griffey, Jr. Currently sporting a sub-.400 slugging % for the first time in his career, Griffey still bats near the top of the Reds lineup. Dusty Baker continues to give him every chance to heat up, yet Griffey has done virtually nothing thus far. Most aging hitters will compensate for declining power by walking more. But Griffey has walked less and his continually porous defense hurts Cincy's young pitchers. I'm really surprised considering his 2007 line (.277/.372/.496) suggested nothing was wrong.

NL West

Arizona

Best Player- Stephen Drew. Conor Jackson has slightly better numbers, but Drew is doing his defensive work at shortstop, making him the more valuable player. Drew was nothing short of horrible in 2007, but Arizona let him work through his problems on the field. Those 600 PAs of experience no doubt helped him improve his game for 2008. With 24 extra-base hits already, Drew symbolizes the growth of the D'Back offense, especially youngsters Upton, Young, and Jackson.

Best Pitcher- Brandon Webb. With apologies to prodigy Max Scherzer, who may soon be the face of this franchise, Webb is putting together another Cy Young season. Though he has twice failed to secure his 10th win, his 64 Ks and 3.01 ERA are nothing to sneeze at. As long as he's throwing that powerful sinker, Webb will be tough to beat.

Biggest Disappointment- Eric Byrnes. Though he was recently given a large contract extension, I didn't think Byrnes would be able to fulfill the deal. He's already 32 and plays a haphazard style that doesn't lend itself to longevity. Therefore, it doesn't surprise me to see him struggling in 2008. His .219/.285/.388 line is ugly to look at and doesn't inspire confidence in a comeback.

Los Angeles

Best Player- Rafael Furcal. Before he got hurt, Furcal was putting together his best ever season. Any surprise that it's coming in a contract year? Yea, I'm not too shocked, either. Furcal is mashing to the tune of .366/.448/.597. At age 30, he still has the major's best infield arm along with the speed to leg out triples. Plus, he has added power as he's aged, making him a very complete player. (And one who should command mega money this offseason)

Best Pitcher- Chad Billingsley. He tends to get overlooked between the veteran presence of Derek Lowe and Brad Penny and the 20-year-old prodigy Clayton Kershaw. But, Billingsley has become an integral part of the Dodger rotation at age 23. In 58.2 innings, he has struck out 67 men while allowing only 3 HR. That type of production is rarely seen. He has been saddled with bad luck, resulting in a 4-6 record. But, if he continues to mow down hitters at this rate, it shouldn't be long before that gets turned around.

Biggest Disappointment- Andruw Jones. This could two years in a row that Jones has disappointed his employers. Challenged to redeem himself with a two-year contract, Jones has responded extremely poorly. He's hitting just .165/.273/.271. It's incredible that he has fallen to these depths just two years after hitting 41 HR and three years away from 51. Yea, he's been getting fatter and he's never been able to hit a slider, but how did has happen so suddenly? Can we chalk it up to the difficulty that is hitting a baseball? Is this one of those Knoblauch/Wohlers deals where he suddenly loses all skills? Whatever it is, for one of my favorite Braves, it's sad to watch.

Colorado

Best Player- Matt Holliday. Firmly established as a MVP candidate now, Holliday has not wavered one bit. Some players will back a bit from an MVP year, but Holliday has gone right back to the same. He recently went on the DL, but I don't see that affecting him too much. Unlike a Dante Bichette, Holliday is still somewhat productive on the road and his lights-out at Coors. A true team leader, Holliday is the face of this current Rockie squad. You can't blame him for the pitching coming back to earth.

Best Pitcher- Aaron Cook. The stars of last year's postseason run, Morales, Jimenez, Corpas, and Francis have all fallen off last year's stats in 2008. Cook, though, has been the one to improve. He even has a 2.33 home ERA with only 2 HR allowed. That type of success at Coors is hard to sustain, but Cook has the talent and sinkerball to do so.

Biggest Disappointment- Jeff Francis. Manny Corpas has also seen a large decline, but he didn't have the previous success that Francis has had. I thought Francis had found a secret to success at Coors. But, apparently that is short-lived. His ERA has jumped 2 runs up to 6.18. I'm more worried about 6.47 road ERA. He won 17 games last year and had been improving since he came into the league. This setback reeks of complacency after the World Series run.

San Francisco

Best Player- Bengie Molina. Batting cleanup and playing solid defense behind the plate, Molina has helped guide the Giants to a somewhat respectable record. I predicted this team to be the worst in baseball, especially their offense. Yet, Molina's career year pace and Rowand's solid production have San Fran in most games.

Best Pitcher- Tim Lincecum. Forecasted to be a major league ace, Lincecum has proved the critics right in his second season. 69 Ks, 3 HR allowed in 62.1 innings certainly sounds like ace material. For a team with such horrible offense, it's amazing Lincecum has won 6 games. But, with those stats, it becomes much clearer. Much like Roy Oswalt, I'll be interested to see how long Lincecum lasts with his small frame.

Biggest Disappointment- Barry Zito. Could it really be anyone else? The man has the largest contract in baseball and he was banished to the bullpen for 2 weeks. He didn't actually pitch in relief, instead coming back to the rotation and continuing to pitch like he had. While he hasn't fallen to Andruw depths, Zito's career has stalled since arriving on the other side of the Bay. He has more walks than Ks, which is hard to believe for a soft-tosser like him. This may require a few years and a change of scenery before we see any improvement.

San Diego

Best Player- Adrian Gonzalez. The big first baseman is the one source of power for the Padres. At 14, he has twice as many round-trippers as runner-up Kevin Kouzmanoff. Since failing to impress the Rangers, Gonzalez has been a godsend for the Padres. His power production has been the one bright spot on a pretty meager Padres offense.

Best Pitcher- Jake Peavy. He and Brandon Webb keep going back and forth for the title of best NL pitcher. Peavy recently went on the DL, but he had pitched beautifully before that. He continues to strike out more than a batter an inning while keeping the ball in the zone and in the park. His massive home park helps, but Peavy also holds a 2-1 road record.

Biggest Disappointment- Trevor Hoffman. The legendary changeup may be on its last legs. Lately, it seems to be all or nothing for Hoffman. He still strikes out 19 in 15.2 innings. But, he has walked 5 and given up 3 HR in that small window as well. It may be a lack of work due to the Padres poor record. It could also be, at age 40, Hoffman isn't fooling as many hitters as he used to.

A Walk in the Park

2008-05-22T17:58:00.002-04:00

We're about two months into the 2008 baseball season and the standings look nothing like any preseason predictions.

The Yankees are in last place.

The Rays lead the AL Wild Card.

The Mets are at .500 while the Marlins lead the division.

St. Louis and Houston are in contention in the NL Central.

Colorado has plummeted to the bottom of the NL West.

Oakland is near the top of the AL West.

And, of course, Detroit sits at the bottom of the AL Central.

Just goes to show how crazy and unpredictable those season previews are. Let's see where each team stands as we head into Memorial Weekend. I'll tackle the AL today and the NL on Monday.

AL East

Boston

Best Player- Kevin Youkilis. He continues to add power and progress as a player even at age 29. Hitting .324/.388/.582, the former Greek God of Walks is now a more complete athlete. He has solidified the Red Sox infield with Mike Lowell missing time and David Ortiz struggling.

Best Pitcher- Daisuke Matsuzaka. Seems like he made some adjustments in the off-season, huh? What a difference Dice-K has been in 2008. He still walks too many hitters (38 in 59.1 inn.) but he has stranded most of them to keep his ERA at 2.43. Josh Beckett has reverted to his homer-happy 2006 mode, so Matsuzaka's play has made the Japanese star the new ace.

Biggest Disappointment- Clay Buchholz. Admittedly his no-hitter last year was against a pretty poor Rangers squad. Nevertheless, Buchholz was supposed to keep improving in 2008. Rather, he has regressed with a ERA in the 5s. The promise is still there with a 9.14 K/9 ratio, but he needs to miss more bats to be effective.

Tampa Bay

Best Player- Eric Hinske. I didn't expect to write that name here, but he's the only Ray with a slugging % over .500. Only Dioner Navarro has a OBP over .400. Who would have thought the Rays, with one of the worst bullpens ever in 2007, would dominate the mound? Back to Hinske, in part-time play he has been the Rays' top hitter, with 18 extra-base hits and 17 walks. While he may never live up to the hype of his 2002 ROY Award, he is a versatile bench player who can start for a few weeks if need be.

Best Pitcher- James Shields. Has he supplanted Scott Kazmir as the Rays' ace? It sure seems so. Kazmir still struggles to pitch deep into games because of his walks. Shields, though, keeps runners off the basepaths and keeps the bullpen fresh. In fact, he has just 5 more walks than Kazmir in 40 more innings. Considering both are 26, and Kazmir has a 1.57 ERA in his 4 starts, you can't wrong with either.

Biggest Disappointment- Carlos Pena. After hitting 46 HR in 2007 and signing a big contract before the season, Pena has responded in 2008 by reverting back to his old self. Slugging .382 and batting a paltry .206, Pena seems to have lost everything he had last year. At age 30, with just one good season to his credit, when is it too early to call 2007 a fluke?

Baltimore

Best Player- I really thought the Orioles would be dreadful this year, but they've held their own thanks to surprising pitching and timely hitting. Leading the way has been the trade target Brian Roberts. Rumored to be heading to the Cubs since the winter meetings, Roberts is still in Baltimore and hitting as good as ever. He plays solid defense and leads the team in steals. Also second in OBP and third in SLG, his constant presence at the top of the lineup will be nice to see even when the Orioles slump down to the cellar.

Best Pitcher- On a team where every reliever has an ERA under 4.15, it's tough to pick just one guy. But, I'll go with Matt Albers. The 25-year-old came over in the Miguel Tejada trade and has started and relieved in Baltimore. With a 2.08 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00, Albers has been solid while contributing in a variety of ways. It's only a matter of time before he's in the rotation full-time instead of Steve Trachsel.

Biggest Disappointment- Ramon Hernandez. His sudden fall from All-Star status has been sad to watch. From 2003-2007, Hernandez averaged about a .275/.330/.470 with 12-20 HR. Last year his OPS dropped to .715 and now in 2008, he's at .583. Granted, he's a 32-year-old catcher, but the decline phase tends to be less steep than this. Luckily, the O's have the game's best catching prospect, Matt Wieters, ready to start in 2009.

New York

Best Player- Alex Rodriguez. Yea, I know he's been hurt, but A-Rod is still head and shoulders above any of his teammates. He already has 2 HR since he came back. Jason Giambi is the only other Yankee to supply any power, but A-Rod does it with better defense and an AVG 80 points higher.

Best Pitcher- Chien-Ming Wang. Mariano Rivera only has a .50 ERA, but that's come in just 18 innings. Wang has made a much bigger impact in the rotation. He has quickly become the Yanks' ace in his fourth year. Experts keep predicting his low K totals will be his downfall, but Wang keeps proving them wrong. His sinkerball induces a steady stream of grounders and plenty of outs.

Biggest Disappointment- Phil Hughes. The Yanks reportedly refused to give him up in the Santana negotiations, but maybe they should have. Whether it's the pressure of the New York lights or he's simply not ready, Hughes needs more work in AAA. A 9.00 ERA in 6 starts is ugly as is the 13/13 K/BB ratio. As Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina continue to decline, Hughes must be ready to replace them.

AL Central

Chicago

Best Player- Carlos Quentin. Stolen from the D'Backs for a A-ball first baseman, Quentin has been one of baseball's biggest surprises. At .294/.408/.588, Quentin has been a major help considering the poor starts by Paul Konerko and Jim Thome. Not known for power, Quentin may not sustain that pace, but he has great doubles power and will be among the league leaders in walks.

Best Pitcher- Though he's just 4th among his fellow starters in ERA, Vazquez has easily been the Sox' best pitcher. He has thrown more innings with a better K/9 ratio than the others. In fact, he's also walked less than any starter even with the inning advantage. Possibly the most durable pitcher of the century (he's never been on the DL), Vazquez bounced back from 3 down years to post a great year in 2007. With his start in 2008, another one is on the way.

Biggest Disappointment- The middle infield. Juan Uribe and Orlando Cabrera may bring this team down from first place with their play alone. Uribe is at .198/.262/.328 and Cabrera is hitting .219/.275/.290. While neither has ever been known as an offensive juggernaut, they've always been better than this. Uribe is in the game for his offense so if he can't pick up his game, the Sox may look elsewhere. Cabrera was traded for one of the team's best pitchers, so this production can't be good for management. At 33, Cabrera's best days may be behind him.

Cleveland

Best Player- Grady Sizemore. I have to pick Sizemore by default here as the Indians' big stars are all struggling. Hafner, Peralta, Martinez, and Garko (the team's power hitters) are all slugging under .418. Sizemore is only at .254/.365/.438, far below his career averages. Yet, his all-around play and good defense keep him atop the pack. Remember discussing Granderson v. Sizemore for AL centerfield supremacy? How's that look now?

Best Pitcher- Cliff Lee. Was there really any doubt? Lee has put up video game stats with only 5 walks in 59.1 innings. At 6-1 and sporting a 1.37 ERA, Lee looks to have firmly rebounded from two straight down years. Along with Aaron Laffey, C.C. Sabathia, Paul Byrd, and Fausto Carmona, Lee gives Cleveland the best rotation in baseball. Obviously, it'll be tough to maintain this type of pace, but still expect Lee to win 15-20 games.

Biggest Disappointment- Travis Hafner. This is more of a trend than a two month deal. Hafner has hit a brick wall in his career. From 2004-2006, he was one of the most feared hitters in baseball. But, something happened last year. He only slugged .451, dropping this year to .368. With his body type, he was never going to be one to age well. At age 30, Hafner may really be about done. Players of this type, think Boog Powell or Cecil Fielder, tend to flame out early. They don't have speed or any secondary hitting skills to help slow the decline. It's sad to see Pronk go down like this, but don't hold your breath for a recovery.

Minnesota

Best Player- Joe Mauer. Justin Morneau may have the better OPS, but Mauer does his hitting from the catching position, making his production much more valuable. Hitting .333 with a .404 on-base, Mauer just needs to stay healthy to be productive. So far so good on that front. Considering no one besides the M & M Boys are hitting for the Twins, Mauer will have to keep up this pace for the Twinkies to stay in contention.

Best Pitcher- Nick Blackburn. The 26-year-old rookie moved slowly in the minors, but he seems to have found a home in 2008. While not Johan Santana yet, Blackburn has been more than capable. One cause for concern is his low, 4.83, K/9 ratio. That stat brought down the career of Nate Cornejo, but Brian Bannister and Chien-Ming Wang have bucked the trend. Stay tuned for Blackburn.

Biggest Disappointment- It'd be unfair to label Francisco Liriano a disappointment yet. But, what is wrong with Delmon Young? All the prospect experts were claiming Young would develop power as he aged. Yet, here we are, and Young hasn't hit for power in the majors or minors. It'd be fine if he had other skills. But, now he is just a overhyped singles hitter. You don't trade Matt Garza for this. And you don't play someone with a .356 SLG in an outfield corner.

Kansas City

Best Player- Alex Gordon. I'm so happy to write his name here. I love seeing young prospects succeed. Last year I drafted Gordon in 3 fantasy leagues only to see him fail miserably for the season's first 4 months. This year, I passed on him in 2 of 3 leagues. Thankfully, he, along with Chipper Jones, are doing wonders for one of my teams. Gordon is hitting .295/.378/.451 so the power isn't quite there yet. But, that line is above-average for a 3B, especially the on-base ability. The George Brett comparisons may have been premature, but Gordon can certainly carry the Royals to a division crown in a few years.

Best Pitcher- Zack Greinke. Just a couple years removed from a personal leave of absence for mental problems, Greinke has transformed his life and his game. Only 24, Greinke already leads the Royals' rotation with a 5-1 record and a 2.18 ERA. Touted as a Greg Maddux-clone, Greinke has supreme control and great off-speed stuff. Now, that he has his head on straight, there's no telling his limits.

Biggest Disappointment- Gil Meche. The big free-agent signing of 2007, Meche was a surprising success last season. This year, he has fallen back to earth. With an ERA of 5.58 and 9 HR allowed, Meche isn't helping the Royals at all. When healthy, Meche has usually been good. Perhaps there is something wrong here that he isn't telling anyone.

Detroit

Best Player- Magglio Ordonez. He's never going to top last year's stats, but he continues to produce like he did in his ChiSox heyday. At .315/.376/.506, I'll take that line from my RF any day of the week. His defense won't wow anyone, but we simply pay him to be adequate out there. His hitting should only improve as Miguel Cabrera heats up. That type of hitter behind him will keep the good pitches coming.

Best Pitcher- Armando Galarraga. Crazy, right? Galarraga started the season in the minors, coming up when Dontrelle Willis got hurt. Now, Willis is back but will head to the pen in favor of the former Ranger. Both pitchers are actually the same age, even though Willis has been in the majors for 6 years. At 3-1 with a 3.06 ERA, Galarraga has been a savior for the Tiger rotation. While he has thrown less than 6 innings/start, he has been consistent, only once allowing more than 2 runs. The pressure is on now that Willis back with the team. Let's see if he can keep from looking over his shoulder when he makes a mistake.

Biggest Disappointment- I'll overlook Gary Sheffield's ugly line because his shoulder injury still isn't healed. What I can't neglect is Justin Verlander. Our supposed ace, our guy who won 35 games in two seasons, he's only 2-7 with a 5.61 ERA in 2008. The past two outings have been encouraging, as he's allowed just 3 runs in 12 innings. But, that was against KC and Seattle. Let's see what he can do against the big guns before I call him back to normal.

AL West

Los Angeles

Best Player- Casey Kotchman. An injury-filled minor league career derailed his progress. But those who watched him every day knew he'd be a star. At age 25, Kotchman has finally found his groove. Hitting .309/.360/.481, Kotchman is akin to Mark Grace or Will Clark. He won't be a typical power-hitting 1B, but he'll be on-base every time you turn around and he'll play great defense. He gives the Angels a solid 1B for the first time since Mo Vaughn.

Best Pitcher- Joe Saunders. Faced with danger after losing Kelvim Escobar for the year and John Lackey for April and much of May, the Angels found a savior in Saunders. He's been up and down with LA the past 3 years, but he looks to have stuck finally. He's 7-1 with a 2.48 ERA, but his K totals are down. Like many other young pitchers, let's see how he does the second time through the league.

Biggest Disappointment- Gary Matthews, Jr. It's amazing what one fluke year and a highlight catch will do for you. He leveraged 2006 into a big deal with LA and has been nothing but disappointing ever since. This year he's at .220/.312/.353 and I wonder how long it'll be before Scioscia goes with Reggie Willits or Juan Rivera instead. The only thing stopping him is that albatross of a contract.

Oakland

Best Player- Like alot of other AL teams this year, the A's are getting by with their pitching. Bobby Crosby leads the team with a .266 AVG! But, Jack Cust has been the best overall hitter. He can't play defense, he strikes out a ton, but the guy can flat-out produce. He's on-base at .426 clip and he has 13 extra-base hits in 160 AB. The DH platoon of him and Frank Thomas has been the A's best position. In fact, Thomas has been the team's 2nd-best hitter since coming over from Toronto. Again, why did the Jays give up so quickly? The Big Hurt is a notoriously slow starter and they had no one in line to replace him. Lucky for the A's, Thomas is back on track and smacking the ball.

Best Pitcher- With a team ERA of 3.37, Oakland has been dominant on the hill. Of course, they have to be if they want to succeed with that offense. Leading the pack has been Dana Eveland. See the sidebar for more on him. Behind Eveland, young guns Greg Smith and Chad Gaudin have been surprising as well. At least the A's know they have plenty of help when Rich Harden gets hurt again.

Biggest Disappointment- Daric Barton. He hit .417 in his September cup of coffee last season. Many were predicting him to be one of the best pure hitters in baseball. He was also an on-base machine in the minors. Both his hitting and eye have eluded him so far to a tune of a .217/.333/.325 line. With Eric Chavez out, the A's need some production from their infield corners. Barton was supposed to supply that, but has failed to live up to the hype.

Texas

Best Player- Josh Hamilton. The guy continues to prove everyone wrong that doubted him. Out of baseball for a time after struggling with injuries and drugs, Hamilton has rebounded to become a near All-Star CF. While the thin air in Texas has helped somewhat, Hamilton still has a .811 road OPS. At age 27, we should be seeing Hamilton's best ball for the next few years.

Best Pitcher- Vicente Padilla. He has never quite recovered from throwing 400 innings in 2002-3. That was after 3 years of relief, so perhaps his arm wasn't ready for the workload. In 2008, Padilla finally has his ERA back under 4.00 and providing Texas with some stability at the front of the rotation.

Biggest Disappointment- There's not one guy that just screams failure yet, but the Rangers' combo of 1B/DH have been among the worst in the league. Chris Shelton, Jason Botts, Ben Broussard, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia have all failed to deliver. The gaping hole left by Mark Teixeira has yet to be filled. And no, Frank Catalanotto is not the answer.

Seattle

Best Player- Raul Ibanez. After resurrecting his career in KC, Ibanez has continued to put up solid, unassuming lines for the last 6 years. He won't light up the scoreboard, but at the end of the year, there he'll be with an above-average line. He gets on-base, hits 20 HR, and plays solid defense. At age 35, he shows no signs of decline.

Best Pitcher- Felix Hernandez. He's yet to have a stretch befitting his King Felix moniker, but at age 22, his production is more than enough. At almost a K an inning, Hernandez is fooling plenty of batters. He just has to cut down on his 28 walks. With a 3.34 ERA, Hernandez is certainly a #2 pitcher already. A couple minor adjustments and he'll be an #1.

Biggest Disappointment- Kenji Johjima. Signed to a contract extension before the year, Johjima has gone about destroying that confidence ever since. Hitting only .222/.259/.311, Johjima has even struggled on defense. Two pitchers have already claimed backup Jamie Burke as their personal catcher. It won't be long before Johjima is a part-time player with a full-time size contract.

Updating the Former Tigers

2008-05-12T16:56:00.002-04:00

Due to my love for the Atlanta Braves, I've had a chance to follow Jair Jurrjens pretty closely this season. As I'm also a huge Detroit Tigers fan, it's been interesting to compare his performance to that of Edgar Renteria. Admittedly, it's early in the year and we should never make too much of one month's stats, but I'd like to look at some former Tigers and their performance thus far in 2008.

Note: (I'm only examining the players we let go or traded away since the end of last season)

The Atlanta Trade

Jair Jurrjens (4-3, 3.10 ERA, 41 K, 17 BB, .202 BAA)

--- Jurrjens has acquitted himself quite nicely in Atlanta's rotation. In fact, with Smoltz, Hampton, and Glavine all missing time with injuries, Jurrjens and Tim Hudson have been the lone constants. Today's start against Pittsburgh was the first time he failed to go six innings since April 2 and also broke a string of 5 consecutive quality starts. Only 22, Jurrjens may not have the upside of Miller or Verlander, but he is already a solid major league starter with the potential to be a #2 down the road.

Gorkys Hernandez (.309 avg, .378 obp, .568 slg, 5 2B, 5 3B, 2 HR, 5 SB, 6 BB, 14 K)

--- Playing for the Braves' High-A affiliate, Hernandez is more than holding his own. Only 20 years old, Hernandez has displayed a newfound power stroke. After slugging just .391 last year, he already has the same amount of triples he did all of 2007. He's doing this in one of the toughest hitters' leagues in the minors as well. These stats are what gave Cameron Maybin the "can't miss" label a couple years ago. So far, it seems Atlanta has won this trade. While Renteria has performed adequately, Jurrjens has been a solid starter and Hernandez is developing his all-around game quickly. Plus, both players are 22 and under, while Renteria is 32.

The Florida Trade

Andrew Miller (3-2, 6.52 ERA, 29 K, 16 BB)

--- Miller struggled mightily to open the 2008 campaign. However, he has shown some promise in his last two outings. In those starts, he went 13 innings, had 11 Ks, 3 BBs, and allowed just 2 runs. Keep in mind, the two starts were against San Diego and Washington, but Miller had been awful in two previous starts against the Nationals. I think Miller was severely rushed to the majors, and could probably still use time at AAA. However, Florida has no other options at this point so Miller will continue to learn on the job. There's no doubt he has the fastball to get major league hitters. The question is whether he can harness his control and off-speed stuff to shut down the better teams in the league.

Mike Rabelo (.239/.284/.299, 1 HR, 14 K, 4 BB, 4/14 CS)

--- Hurt for the beginning of the year, Rabelo has yet to find his stroke at the plate. Really, he doesn't have much of a chance of improving on his 2007 numbers. Rabelo is nothing more than a backup catcher. However, all he needs to do to keep his spot in the majors is hit a homer every couple weeks or play solid defense. Simply doing that should keep around until his late 30s.

Cameron Maybin (.242/.373/.419, 5 HR, 3 2B, 2 3B, 6 SB, 51 K, 25 BB)

--- Playing for Florida's Double-A affiliate, Maybin hasn't produced as expected. I think last year's unnecessary 3-level jump to the majors sidetracked Maybin a bit. Back with his age group, Maybin is still just 21 years old. I love the on-base percentage; it seems he's walking a fair amount. But, I'm not sure what has happened to his extra-base power. It certainly is no cause for concern at his age, but it is a small step backward after 2007.

Burke Badenhop (1-2, 6.31 ERA, 21 K, 10 BB)

--- Mostly a throw-in to the deal, Badenhop surprisingly reached the majors before Maybin. Needing help in the rotation, Florida turned to the 25-year-old after one start in Double-A. He's been old for his league so far in his career, so there doesn't seem to be much potential here. But, he has been solid nonetheless in the minors, suggesting a future as a back-end starter. For now, he has already been shifted to the bullpen.

Eulogio De La Cruz (5-1, 5.40 ERA, 31 K, 18 BB, .314 BAA)

--- De La Cruz would seem to be the quintessential Quadruple-A player. He had a great year in AAA last year only to falter when he reached the majors. At AAA again this year, he has bounced back from a rough start to post 3 great outings in his last 5 starts. However, he still doesn't miss enough bats to be productive enough at the big league level. Remember, it is possible for a pitcher's control to be different than his command. Almost anyone can throw a pitch for a strike; it's the pitcher that can locate that pitch anywhere in the zone that succeeds. So far, De La Cruz hasn't shown that ability.

Dallas Trahern (0-3, 7.59 ERA, 15 K, 6 BB, 8 HR, .326 BAA)

--- The final piece of the trade, Trahern is also pitching for Florida's AAA squad. Trahern was decent for the Tigers' AA team in 2007, but the jump to AAA has been a struggle thus far. As you can see, the homeruns have been a killer for Trahern. He gave up 12 all of last year. One reason may be his home park as Albuquerque is a hitter's haven. But, he had problems in his road start as well. He may be injured or he may just not have the stuff to succeed at the higher level. A few more months should tell the real story.

Omar Infante (4-13)

--- Infante was just recently activated off the DL by the Braves. There's no real point in analyzing his 4 games worth of stats. The only thing I can say for sure is that I like him much better than Ramon Santiago. Infante's versatility and offensive ability trump Santiago's defense in my opinion. However, Leyland never took a liking to Infante for whatever reason. As a Braves fan, I'm happy for his irrational favoritism.

Sean Casey (.346/.424/.462, 6 2B, 0 HR, 7 BB, 4 K)

---Another former Tiger who has spent time on the DL this season, Casey has produced wonderfully in his limited playing time for Boston. Bear in mind, that 45 of his 52 ABs have come against RH. Limiting him like this really ups his potential production. There's no way he'll keep up that stat line, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get his first .300 avg or .400 slg since 2005. There's no question he can be a solid bat off the bench. But, the Tigers were smart to let him walk rather than keep him as a starter. We had a superior bench player in Marcus Thames and cheaper help at AAA in Mike Hessman and Jeff Larish.

Tim Byrdak (1-0, 8 games, 0.00 ERA, 2 K, 7 BB)

--- A strange stat line isn't it? I was initially confused when the Tigers let Byrdak go, but given the performances of Seay and Rapada, my doubts have been quashed. If he continues to walk batters at this rate, there's no way he'll keep that ERA. In fact, five of the walks have come against RH, proving he can only be counted on to retire lefties. Let the Astros deal with the eventual breakdown.

Chad Durbin (0-1, 17 games, 1.50 ERA, 13 K, 12 BB)

--- Durbin has been a pretty effective member of the Phillie bullpen. I like that Charlie Manuel has used Durbin for over a inning per, as Durbin's starting background shows, he has the repertoire to do so. Much like Byrdak, Durbin's lack of control may eventually doom him. Yet, for less than a million dollars, he's a great weapon to have as a long reliever or spot starter.

All told, it seems the former Tigers are experiencing much success early in the season. The veterans are certainly faring better than the youngsters. But then, that was Detroit's plan. It could afford to give up the young guys because they didn't have the time for them to develop. Their window of opportunity is now; that's what makes the pitching implosion so difficult to watch. Plus, if the struggles continue, it could get ugly when Miller, Jurrjens, Maybin, and Hernandez become All-Stars. Let's hope that backlash doesn't happen, but for now, it seems more likely than not.

Lions have (no) hope

2008-05-07T17:39:00.004-04:00

It's a beautiful time to be a Detroit sports fan. The Wings are rolling through the NHL Playoffs, the Pistons are dismantling the Magic, the Tigers are still only 3.5 gms out of first place. What about the Lions, you say? Isn't this the time for optimism in the NFL? When your team has just drafted new blood and it's easy to overlook weaknesses. Not for the boys in Honolulu Blue.

According to Tom Kowalski at Mlive.com, Jon Kitna is not going anywhere soon. I know most of us realize that already, but doesn't it hurt to read it again? Detroit has plenty of holes besides QB, don't get me wrong. Yet, we aren't fooling anyone with Kitna behind center, either.

Our skill positions on offense are manned with plenty of youth. Unlike the Tigers, the Lions don't necessarily have a win-now makeup on its roster. Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Tatum Bell, and Kevin Smith are all before or in their primes. Our key players on the line (Backus, Cherilus, and Raiola) are equally young.

With that in mind, Kitna has no business starting at quarterback. Having watched Drew Stanton at Michigan St., I'm not convinced he's our answer, either. However, we still need to give him the chance to succeed. Simply handing Kitna the job is not the answer. There's no need to give Kitna too much comfort atop the depth chart. Anybody could have piled up those yardage totals in Mike Martz's offense. Look past that mirage and examine his turnover totals. He has 42 interceptions and 28 fumbles the past two seasons. I don't care if Coach Marinelli likes your intangibles or your toughness. Give me someone who can hold onto the ball. Given the lack of ability on the defensive side of the ball, the Lions can ill-afford to give away the ball so often.

Even more troubling about this situation is the sad state of the NFC North. Minnesota has a dominating run defense/offense, but no pass defense/offense. Chicago has its ongoing QB problems to go along with its newfound RB worries. And we all know about Green Bay's transition. This is a division in flux and it's really nothing new. The Vikings have struggled on pass D/O for the past two years. The Bears have done nothing since falling backwards into the Super Bowl. Plus, Matt Millen had to know Brett Favre would retire/decline inevitably. A strong organization plans for that and has their ducks in a row when it happens. I wish, for once, Millen would smarten up and take advantage of opponents' weaknesses. Of course, I'm not sure why I am even getting so worked up about this problem. Detroit hasn't had a long-term franchise QB since Bobby Layne in the 1950s.

The Pistons & Other Playoff Thoughts

2008-05-06T16:37:00.002-04:00

Now, isn't this what we've all come to expect? About a week and a half late, the Detroit Pistons have finally showed up to the playoffs. After sleeping through the first few games of the Philadelphia series, Detroit turned on the jets at halftime of Game 4 and hasn't looked back. I fully expect the Pistons to steal at least one in Orlando. That will set up a potential Game 5 clincher back in Auburn Hills. If this Celtics-Cavs series goes as long as I expect it to, Detroit could have itself a nice long rest. Whether that helps or hurts is like the chicken or the egg question, it really depends on the individuals involved. On a team playing as many veterans as we're playing, a little rest certainly wouldn't hurt. With that said, let me go through a few notes I have on the series thus far.

What do you readers think of the Pistons' bench minutes in the playoffs? Too much or too little? Or just right? Frankly, I'd like to see Jarvis Hayes more. I like his outside-shooting and he did nothing wrong in the regular season to deserve this drop in minutes. Granted, he may not be able to defend Turkoglu, but when someone like Bogans is out there, give Hayes some time. Let Prince rest a bit for god sake.
I'm glad Saunders put Lindsey Hunter on the IL and gave Stuckey full confidence as the backup point. I don't want Stuckey looking over his shoulder every time he makes a mistake. He earned that role off the bench over the last 3 months of the year. Hunter circa 1995 might deserve some PT, Hunter 2008 does not warrant more than an assistant coaching job. With that in mind, I would like to see Stuckey score a little more. He's looked a bit tentative in the playoffs. I miss the Stuckey of the regular season that would drive the lane with abandon and draw fouls. He might be too afraid to make a mistake in the playoffs, but that style has been successful for him and he shouldn't change it.
How huge has Theo Ratliff been for us? Playing only 16 regular season games usually isn't a recipe for playoff success (i.e Hunter), but Theo has been a solid contributor off the pine. He still has much of his leaping ability and athleticism he had when we drafted him out of Wyoming. Compared to our previous old backups (Dale Davis and Elden Campbell), Ratliff seems like a blockbuster signing. Those two were basically washed-up by the time they arrived in Detroit. Our frontcourt depth is a major reason for our playoff success the past 5 years. Think about it, who has hurt us in our playoff losses? It's really been the wing players. Kobe did more damage than Shaq in the 2004 Finals, Wade the same for Miami. LeBron obviously last year. Michael Redd had a few big games against us in the first round a couple years ago. Other than a Reggie Evans-type fluke, we've been able to consistently shut down the opponents' posts. A big reason is the play of guys like Ratliff and Maxiell, who by the way, were both playing in crunch-time last night.
I've yet to hear a valid reason why Kobe Bryant is the MVP instead of Chris Paul. Can any of you explain that one to me? Paul led the Hornets to the second-best record in the West in his 3rd year. He averaged 20 ppg while also leading the league in assists, which no one has done since Magic in 1988. This smells like a lifetime achievement award for Kobe, rather than a single season honor. If anything, Kobe should have gotten the MVP two years ago when he scored 35/gm and took a ragtag bunch of Lakers to the playoffs. He had a better supporting cast this season, no wonder his team had a better record. Ask any coach or GM in the NBA and I'm sure they'll tell you point guard is a tougher position to play than shooting guard. Much like awarding a SS or CF in baseball over a 1B or LF, Chris Paul's tougher position makes him the better bet.
Remember when he thought the Western Conference playoffs would be the most exciting time for the NBA in years? There has been blowout after blowout so far and no series have excited me yet. Utah closed the gap on LA in the second half Sunday, but the Lakers still controlled the tempo throughout. I want some back-and-forth exciting basketball, for a whole series. When that Spurs-Suns game went double-OT in Game 1, we all were primed for an intense 2 months. But, since then, it's been a major disappointment. Really, the East has been more exciting. Boston-Atlanta was out of nowhere, even if Game 7 was a snooze. Washington-Cleveland, nothing if not amusing, was physical and both teams were constantly on the verge of a flagrant. Philadelphia put a scare into Detroit for a 3.5 games. Only Orlando-Toronto was sort of bland, offering little except for Dwight Howard's Moses Malone impression.
Now, with LeBron vs. the Celtics looming, I can't help but think this series may best anything the West has to offer. I wasn't old enough to appreciate the Jordan v. Pistons/Celtics in the late 80s, but I imagine this to be similar. The Bulls had yet to blend the proper supporting players around Jordan, much like the Cavs' sorry state beyond LeBron. It wouldn't surprise me to see James go off for 45-50 in a few games. Boston has been recognized for its defense all year, but as James proved last year against Detroit, he can beat any defense. Last year, it was Daniel Gibson that stepped up behind LeBron and Big Z. Who will be this year? Cleveland desperately needs someone to be that 3rd guy or else they'll fall, likely in six or seven games.

One more question, baseball-style: Why, why, why won't Detroit sign Barry Bonds? How is this not a good idea? We have an open spot at DH/LF; he can platoon with Sheffield lefty-righty if need be; Leyland can mix and match Ordonez, Bonds, Sheffield through the outfield and DH spots; Our window of opportunity is now, not in three years, so Bonds' age means nothing; Illitch has shown he will spend the money; Bonds has a history with Leyland from Pittsburgh; we give Bonds an excellent shot to win a World Series because we're still only 3 games out of the division. C'mon, this has to work, right?
Since that probably won't ever happen, let's root for newcomer Matt Joyce. He's a 23-year-old who hit .299/.367/.563 in Toledo this year. Before this April, Joyce had never slugged over .500 in the minors. Let's hope this is breakout and not a small sample fluke. In any case, he can't be any worse and he'll almost certainly hit for more power than Clete Thomas did.

Back tomorrow

2008-05-05T15:36:00.000-04:00

The major workload of U of M graduation has finally ended. Thus, I will be back tomorrow with an NBA Playoff article. Sorry to keep all of you waiting.

---Ordo

Will Be Back Shortly

2008-04-17T17:48:00.003-04:00

I must apologize to my readers. I've been very busy at work lately. I am also in the process of acquiring information for my new high school sports website. Please forgive the lack of updates, but I will try to get a NBA playoff preview post up either tomorrow or Saturday. Thank you.

Detroit v. ???? in NBA First Round

2008-04-11T17:07:00.002-04:00

The NBA Playoffs start next Saturday, though the Detroit Pistons have already clinched the #2 seed. Boston will be the #1 and Orlando slots in at #3. Only the 8th seed is up in the air, but the Hawks have all but locked it up, leading New Jersey by 2 games with 4 to play. While the teams in the playoffs may be set, seeds 4 through 8 are still in doubt. I bring this up because we Pistons fans need something to root for as the season comes to a close.

Cleveland will more than likely capture the #4 seed, needing just a win tonight against Chicago. Atlanta should also stay at #8 because it is 3 games behind current 7th seed Toronto.

Those Raptors are vying with Washington and Philadelphia for the 5th, 6th, and 7th seeds. The Wizards are 5th as of now, leading by 1 over the Sixers, who are also 1 up on Toronto. Let's take a look at these teams to see who Detroit will likely play, or, rather, who we want to play. Interestingly, we will see both Washington and Toronto this weekend.

Washington Wizards
41-37, 5th seed
Games Remaining
@ Detroit
Philadelphia
Indiana
@ Orlando

The Pistons will be resting their starters, and probably sitting Hamilton, yet again tonight. Orlando will also be resting it starters in its final game. Those two expected wins should assure Washington of a 5 seed. Games at home against the Sixers and Pacers will be tougher, since both are fighting for playoff positioning. Still, the games are in D.C. On paper, Washington should win all four games, but games are played on the court and anything can happen.

If the Wizards do somehow collapse and fall to the 7th seed, they will be an extremely tough matchup for Detroit. With Gilbert Arenas back, Washington is a much more dangerous team Agent Zero is fully healthy yet, but he is still a better player than someone like Roger Mason or Antonio Daniels. The teams have split the season series, but Arenas was out for both contests. Last year, when Washington had largely the same squad, the teams also split the series. So, I have no doubt that this would be a killer matchup for us. The Wizards' trio of Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, and Arenas are hard to guard simply because it's difficult to put 3 great defenders on the court at once. Chauncey Billups can guard Arenas well because he has the size and quickness to stay in front of Gilbert. With his length and agility, Tayshaun Prince is certainly capable of shutting down Butler. But, it's Jamison that may be a tougher battle. It will probably be Rasheed Wallace on Jamison initially. The former Tar Heels matchup well height-wise, but Jamison is quicker and can drive past Wallace. We would likely have to double off someone like DeShawn Stevenson or Brendan Haywood, and that's not a problem.

The Wizards also have a very athletic bench, something Detroit can matchup well with. Andray Blatche, Nick Young, Antonio Daniels, Roger Mason, and Darius Songaila can all the run the floor and play above the rim. This is where I hope to see Amir Johnson get quality playoff time. I have a sneaking feeling Flip will go with Lindsey and Theo Ratliff far too often. But, it's Maxiell and Amir that have the athleticism to defend Blatche and Songaila. Same with Stuckey and Afflalo against Young and Daniels.

Possibility of seeing Wizards in Rd. 1: Slim
Desire to see Wizards in Rd. 1: Very Slim

Philadelphia 76ers
40-38, 6th seed
Games Remaining
Indiana
Washington
Cleveland
@ Charlotte

Like Washington, Philly has two games against teams still in the hunt and two against teams who have already set their playoff spots. The Sixers-Wizards game will go a long way in determining who gets the higher seed. Both Philly and Washington are on a roll; Philly has won 3 of 4, while Washington has won 3 straight. In fact, if these teams continue their recent play, the Raptors will be left in the 7th seed by default. Toronto has already lost 3 of 4, but has the easiest schedule of the 3.

If Detroit plays Philadelphia in Round 1, I'd be much happier. Yes, Philly has an athletic core led by Andre Iguodala. They have a steady point guard in Andre Miller. And, Samuel Dalembert always seems to give us fits. But, they don't have nearly the same experience or bench that Washington does. Their bench consists of second-year guys and rookies like Louis Williams, Thaddeus Young, Rodney Carney, and Jason Smith. Williams, Young, and Carney are largely one-dimensional athletes that have yet to round out their games. We split the season series, but Philly's last win came with much of Detroit's starters on the pine. And Detroit has beaten Philly in the first round two of the last five years. If Prince can contain Iguodala, there are no real tough defensive assignments on this squad. There is no Arenas or Butler here, and for that, I hope we get Philly on Saturday.

Possibility of seeing 76ers in Rd. 1: Moderate
Desire to see 76ers in Rd. 1: High

Toronto Raptors
39-39, 7th seed
Games Remaining
New Jersey
@ Detroit
Miami
@ Chicago

As I said earlier, the Raptors look to have the easiest remaining schedule of the 3 teams. Whether that helps them is something only Toronto can control. Detroit and Chicago have nothing to play for anymore, Miami should be in the D-League right now. Only New Jersey will present a tough game, and even that depends on Vince Carter's health. If he's out or has to miss more time than usual, Toronto wins going away.

But, Toronto is still the 7th seed and needs help to move up. For that reason, Toronto may still be the team we see in Round 1. Thus far, Detroit has taken 2 of 3 in the series. The Pistons' only loss came without Hamilton, though.

The Raptors are a solid 10-deep, with nine of the players between 5.7 and 12.7 points per game. Chris Bosh is the true star here, but his rebounds and blocks are down this season. I don't see any reason why he can be quieted by the Pistons' deep frontcourt. However, Detroit shouldn't forget Rasho Nesterovic. I can't believe I just wrote that, but seriously, Nesterovic has become an offensive juggernaut. A career 7 pts/gm scorer, Rasho has averaged about 15 per game since February. With a second low-post scorer, Toronto would be the only team among the 3 to have such a combo.

Another area of concern would be Toronto's two-headed point guard duo of T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon. Both players shoot well and rarely turn the ball over. This might be one team where Lindsey Hunter would come in handy. Ford and Calderon are both small, giving Hunter a good matchup. On offense, Billups and Stuckey are stronger and bigger than both, creating easy opportunities for post-ups and penetration.

Possibility of seeing Toronto in Rd. 1: Pretty Good
Desire to see Toronto in Rd. 1: Very High

Detroit Pistons All-Time Team

2008-04-09T16:31:00.003-04:00

Culminating a year-long process, the Detroit Pistons unveiled its all-time team last night before the game against New York. For those of you who watched the ceremony, I hope you enjoyed seeing the old players come back. It was also great to see each player greet owner Bill Davidson on his way out. I would have loved to have been there to see all the greats side by side. In fact, everyone who wasn't deceased or still playing/coaching around the league made it to the event. Except one person, of course --- Dennis Rodman. It's sad that even with what his life has become, he can't make it back to Detroit for one night with his former teammates.

In an effort to honor as many people as possible, the Pistons split up the team by era into three groups: The Classic Era, The Bad Boy Era, and The Current Era.

By no means do I want to criticize this process. I love that Detroit honored its all-time greats and helped younger fans to appreciate what these men meant to the organization. But, I have to take issue with some of these selections. The team consists of about 32 players and it should really be around 20. It seems that the committee basically selected any player who played decent minutes for a title team. And if you have a connection to the city of Detroit or are still in the media, that helps too. Really, is John Salley deserving of being on any all-time team? Yea, he's funny and a good interview, but he played six seasons in Detroit and never averaged more than 9.5 points or 6.1 rebounds in a season.

Same with Rick Mahorn. Another funny guy who is still involved with the team, so perhaps his case was helped there. But, he played just four seasons in Detroit, (not counting his two comeback years in 96-98) and basically put up 8 and 8. If you force me, I can sort of understand those two picks because they were solid bench players who still have viable personalities in today's media.

But, James Edwards, really?? The Detroit sports media were gushing over him in the pre-game roundtable. I think it was Chris McCoskey who said Edwards holds the all-time record for first quarter points. It may be hyperbole, but it's still a dumb comment. You can't just glorify these players years after they retire because they played a nice role on a title team. Edwards was, for his size, one of the worst rebounders in the league. He played 3.5 years in Detroit and never grabbed more than 4.2 rpg. I know he played with one of the best rebounders in NBA history, but Salley, Mahorn, and Laimbeer all found time to grab a few caroms. Not Buddha. If this committee thinks Edwards is an all-time team member, than so is Cliff Robinson.

Let's compare these two players:
Player A- 5 years, averaged over 17 ppg three times, never more than 4 apg or 3 rpg.
Player B- 6.5 years, averaged over 17 ppg three times, never more than 3 apg or 4 rpg.

It seems the players are fairly similar. Both were shooting guards who played in the late 1960s. Both played on the 1968 playoff team, though Player B played better. But Player A made the all-time team. My guess as to why? Player A is Jimmy Walker, Player B is Eddie Miles. Walker lived in Detroit after his career, fathering Jalen Rose. Miles didn't have a famous son. Anyone else have a better reason, I'm all ears.

They also named an all-time starting five. Isiah Thomas at PG, Dave Bing at the 2, Grant Hill at SF, Rodman at the 4, and Bob Lanier at center. I actually find it hard to argue with that starting five.

The only one who may not fit perfectly is Rodman. He wasn't a scorer by any means. But, his rebounding prowess was almost unbelievable. In fact, only Ben Wallace in 2002 has anyone grabbed over 15 per game in a season. If you want to argue with his lack of scoring, good luck finding anyone else to take his place. There's Sheed or Mahorn and Salley. When you consider that, Rodman is easily the best choice.

A couple other notes from the ceremony: Ben Wallace was booed it sounded like. That I don't understand one bit. Wallace basically turned around the team's reputation and became the face of the Pistons for six years. When he left, it was a business decision by Joe Dumars (and a smart one at that). Why turn your back on the man who brought a title to this town and won 3 Defensive Player of the Year awards? Even if he has played for our two biggest rivals this season, his impact has dramatically waned. There's no need for the booing; he should be cheered for doing what no one else could in the 1990s.

Finally, I know Hill couldn't make it, but I was shocked that he wasn't cheered more when his name was announced. The sports media mentioned it in the pregame, and I fully agree. Hill just wasn't recognized as he should have been during his time here. People seem to forget, but Hill was like Scottie Pippen and LeBron James. He averaged about 21 ppg, 8 rpg, and 7 apg, making the All-Star team all six seasons. Hill played point guard, he played scorer, he played rebounder, whatever the team needed, Hill did it. Maybe it was the team's inability to escape the first round (they lost 4 times in 4 tries). Maybe it was boring nature of his teammates and the lack of an identity during the mid-90s. Whatever it was, Hill doesn't deserve the negativity. I'm glad he was named to the starting five and I hope he can be recognized rightfully.

Final Four Preview

2008-04-05T14:26:00.002-04:00

For the first time in Tournament history, all four #1 seeds have advanced to the Final Four. This development should lead to one of the most competitive, well-played weekends in recent memory. Obviously, the big storylines have been about Roy Williams playing his former team or the battle of big-time point guards. But, I think the big story for tonight's games will be the play of Tyler Hansbrough and Kevin Love.

Memphis-UCLA

On the surface, Memphis seems to have a big edge in athleticism and speed. Their perimeter players, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose are a much more potent combo than the Bruins' Josh Shipp and Darren Collison. Shipp has been struggling since February, scoring in double-figures just six times. Collison is more than capable of heating up on offense, but UCLA will likely need Shipp's production so the Tigers don't double off onto Russell Westbrook or Collison. CDR and Rose have been nothing short of amazing in the Tournament, and it will be up to Westbrook, one of the game's premier defenders, to shut down Rose. CDR will likely be defended by long-armed Luc Richard Mbah a Moute.

Memphis loves to attack the basket as its 3-point shooting is weak. The Tigers would love to get Mbah a Moute or Love in foul trouble because the Bruins' depth up front is lacking. Backups Mata-Real, Aboya, and Keefe are not offensive players. They rely on defense primarily, maybe getting a few putbacks here or there. Taking away Love would severely hamper UCLA's offensive options, especially if Shipp can't find his shot.

For the Bruins, they will look to take advantage of their superior defense. Westbrook has been an amazing defender all year, routinely shutting down the opponent's best player. His play on Rose will be crucial. Disrupting Rose, forcing the freshman into turnovers would be helpful. Backup point Andre Allen is suspended for the weekend so Rose will have to play more minutes. Rather, if he exits, the Tigers will have to slide Anderson, Roberts, or Kemp over to the 1. That would only help the Bruins because I can't see the Tigers' offense running nearly as smoothly without Rose.

The biggest thing to watch for early will be how Love fares down low. He'll be matched primarily with Joey Dorsey. But, I'm sure Robert Dozier and Shawn Taggart will slide over at times. These three big bodies will do their best to shut down Love, but few teams, no matter how big, have completed this task in 2008. Love is a master on the offensive glass, creating multiple opportunities for the Bruin offense. He can also force Dorsey away from the lane with his 3-point ability. It may not look pretty, but it goes in 36% of the time.

When it comes down to it, I'm sticking with my pre-Tourney prediction. UCLA wins behind its superior defense in a low-scoring affair.

Kansas-North Carolina

Both of these teams goes solidly nine deep so expect a much faster game than the early contest. Each coach can play multiple lineups with different matchups that should create an interesting chess match. The Jayhawks can throw Darnell Jackson, Darrell Arthur, Sasha Kaun, and Cole Aldrich on the frontline to defend Tyler Hansbrough, Deon Thompson, and Alex Stepheson. In the backcourt, UNC can go big with Danny Green and Marcus Ginyard or go small with Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington. Kansas has big guards in Sherron Collins and Brandon Rush to go along with smaller guards Mario Chalmers and Russell Robinson.

The big question here: can Kansas stop the runaway train that is North Carolina? The Heels have rolled through the tournament, winning by 39, 31, 21, and 10. They've played great defense, great offense, and done so at a slower pace than normal. Hansbrough, recently named the AP Player of the Year, should have no problem getting his 20 and 10. Teams rarely shut him down and I can't see Jackson or Arthur staying out of foul trouble. Hansbrough goes to the line a la Karl Malone. Everytime you look up, he seems to be shooting free throws.

However, Hansbrough is weak on defense. This is where Arthur and Jackson must step up. They are both bigger and stronger than Hansbrough and need to take advantage of it. Much like Love, Kansas needs to get Hansbrough in early foul trouble to force UNC into using its bench. They are deep in the backcourt, but they have to go small on their frontcourt bench. Kansas only gets bigger when going to Kaun or Aldrich. This size should come in handy on the glass.

A big matchup problem could be UNC's Danny Green. His size and versatility allows to create mismatches. He excels on the offensive glass where he can use his speed against bigger defenders and his size against smaller ones. Brandon Rush may be the best option against Green, but he occasionally will take plays off and seem to coast. If he gets caught napping tonight, Green will no doubt take advantage.

The Jayhawks two-headed PG of Collins and Robinson needs to wear down Lawson. Full-court pressure will tire him while the Jayhawks can alternate guards. Force the Heels to use Quentin Thomas who is about 1/10th the player Lawson is. He turns the ball over easily against pressure and doesn't always read the court as well. Collins could be an all-conference performer elsewhere. At Kansas, he comes off the bench. What an option that is for Coach Self. His bowling-ball frame, combined with his quickness, helps him get to the hole and finish.

The Jayhawks must use Collins and Rush to push the tempo and keep the Heels off the offensive glass to win. However, Carolina is simply playing too well for them to be pushed around by Kansas. I see Deon Thompson stepping up on the offensive weak side and Carolina winning.

Detroit Tigers: 0-3???

2008-04-03T17:53:00.002-04:00

Five runs, three games, three losses.

Raise your hand if you expected this against Kansas City. In fact, raise your hand if you expected this against any team. I know it's a long season, and we were down Granderson for the series and Cabrera for a game, but still. Our pitching, supposedly our team's biggest weakness, was good enough to win in all three games. No, they weren't lights out, but we only allowed 4.3 runs/gm. Our offense was supposed to be able to break the scoreboard with our run totals. Obviously, many of those predictions, especially the 1,000 run total I've been seeing, were unrealistic. Nevertheless, this Tigers squad is capable of more than 5 runs against the Royals.

You might say we missed Granderson in the leadoff slot. But, I didn't see that in this series. Our leadoff hitters were 5-13 with a walk and a RBI. A .385 avg. with .429 OBP is nothing to scoff at. Renteria had all three Tiger hits in Wednesday's loss out of the leadoff spot.

Inge has filled in quite capably in Granderson's defensive spot as well. He threw out a runner at 3rd on Wed. and a runner at home on Mon. To top it off, he moved to third today, had two hits (including a HR), and actually walked! I'd say Inge has put all that trade talk on the back burner, wouldn't you?

If you're looking for offensive problems, look no further than Pudge. Pudge is at .083 with 4 K's and no walks. Leyland expressed interest in batting Pudge first at times. I have just one thing to say to that: PLEASE, NEVER. The man was never great at drawing walks, but since he came to Detroit, he has completely given up all plate discipline. He walked 11 times in 2005 and had just 9 free passes in 2007. Players tend to gain plate discipline as they age; they compensate for slowing bat speed with a better eye to get on base. To be valuable on offense, Pudge needs to hit the ball because he doesn't get on base any other way.

I have no problems with the way our starters pitched. Bonderman actually made it through the first inning without allowing any runs. Really, they should have given us the victory then. I can't remember the last time Bondo made it through the first without giving up a hit, much less a run. He was obviously tiring though in the sixth when he gave up a homer, single, and a walk to consecutive batters. We still should have gotten out of the 7th inning jam with two outs and one on. Lopez just threw a pitch that caught too much of the plate and Guillen drove in the 4th run. I am concerned that Bondo only had 1 K. If his elbow is fully healed, and his stuff doesn't have the same electricity, he could get shelled soon.

Rogers was his usual self. Six innings, 4 Ks, 1 walk, 2 runs. You can't ask for much more from a 43-year-old. If he can provide a quality start like that most of the time, I'll be very happy.

Verlander was the most dominating of the starters. He cruised through the first five innings without allowing a run. But, Alex Gordon, like he did to Bondo today, took a tiring pitcher deep. Verlander exited after allowing a walk and a single in the 7th. Grilli and Lopez proceeded to allow both runners to score. I don't know about you, but I can't expect either of those pitchers to get out of any jams. They're fine with no one on, but put a runner on base and watch him score.

That right there is, other than our surpisingly anemic offense, the crux of our problems. Our entire bullpen, save maybe Bobby Seay, is built around pitchers who are fine with no one on. But, they wilt like Nick Anderson in '95 Finals with runners on. Leyland will need to be extremely careful when deciding to remove his starters. If he lets them go a batter too late, we're doomed until Rodney and Zumaya return. Everyone knew that our bullpen would struggle, this series merely reinforced it. All you have to do is look what Lopez did today and Monday. Both times he entered with men on and allowed a run to score. Then he pitched a scoreless inning Monday and two scoreless today. It's almost fun to watch.

Thoughts On Opening Day

2008-04-01T16:56:00.002-04:00

Most every baseball writer tends to write some grand exposition exaggerating a team's Opening Day performance. It's usually taken for granted that this one game will be a microcosm for the next 161 games. We like to say how Xavier Nady is on pace for 324 home runs or that Carlos Gomez is suddenly a legit leadoff hitter. But, we all know that one game does not make a season. It takes a much larger sample to determine the quality of a hitter or pitcher. Having said all that, I would like to say a few things based on what I saw yesterday. For reference, I watched all or parts of Detroit-KC, Chicago-Milwaukee, San Diego-Houston, Washington-Philadelphia, Cincinnati-Arizona, Minnesota-LA, and San Fran-LA.

Let's not read too much into the Detroit bullpen yet. Grilli shouldn't be asked to shut down a rally with men on base. He's a long reliever capable of giving you several innings at a time and he may give up a run. I'm okay with that, as long as he keeps the team in the game and allows the other, more reliable bullpen arms to rest.
Denny Bautista looks to be a solid late-inning option until Rodney and Zumaya return. He continued his surprising spring and may really be a new pitcher. He has struggled mightily with his command his whole career. Fifty-seven walks in 117 innings is not good at all. But, he's always had a lightning-quick fastball and wicked movement. Harnessing those pitches are the only thing holding him back.
I know all the aces were going yesterday, but the cold weather still seemed to affect the hitters moreso than the pitchers. Ben Sheets, Carlos Zambrano, and Brandon Webb were masterful in the cold, especially Sheets and Zambrano. Both were delayed about 50 minutes during the third inning for rain. Yet, both came back out and continued mowing down hitters. It wasn't until the bullpens came in that the hitters took advantage. It's a shame that Sheets has been hurt so often, (30+ starts in only 3 of 7 years) because he's a joy to watch. He works very quickly, which is always a plus for fans, and he rarely walks batters.
It's only been one game, but this is no exaggeration. The Giants are dreadful. They're starting a guy (Brian Bocock) at shortstop who has never played above A-ball. What did he do at A-ball to deserve this promotion? Oh, just hit .243 with a .312 OBP and .344 SLG. They say he plays excellent defense, but once you lower that line for the majors, I don't even think Ozzie Smith can compensate for that. What about their 1B? Perhaps thinking this was 2001 the Giants have decided to go with Rich Aurilia. Now 36, and coming off a .252/.304/.368 year, it's inconceivable how he is starting at a corner on a team with no playoff hopes. Give the job to a youngster, please. You don't have Barry Bonds anymore, there is no reason to play this many washed-up veterans. Speaking of, Ray Durham is batting fifth, ahead of big free-agent signee Aaron Rowand. Durham, save for a fluke 2006, has largely been a .280/.360/.450 guy for most of his career. That is pretty valuable at second base, but certainly not a #5 hitter. And, why sign Rowand to such an enormous deal and bat him sixth, behind Durham and Bengie Molina? Sorry to rant, but no team confuses me more than San Fran.
While we're on the NL West, there is one heck of a lot of pitching in that division. Just yesterday, Jake Peavy, Brad Penny, and Brandon Webb combined for 19.2 innings, two runs allowed, 13 strikeouts, and 10 hits allowed. I can't see that division separating too much until at least August. There's too much pitching for these teams to falter, save any major injury.
One final thing. Minnesota is being overlooked by many in the Central race, and probably rightfully so. They lack power, their starting pitching is young, and, well, they start Craig Monroe at DH. But, with Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez in the outfield, they have the speed to wreak havoc with teams. Neither may fully fulfill his potential in 2008, but one or the other should come close. If nothing else, it will be exciting to watch those two run on that turf. Plus, they each have a tremendous throwing arm. While many, including me, were predicting the demise of Livan Hernandez, he calmly went out and shut down the Angels Monday. And he did it in typical Livan fashion. He allowed seven hits, only struck out two, yet just two runs crossed the plate. Hernandez has been the exception to almost every pitching rule in his career. From his scary high pitch counts to his propensity for allowing baserunners, Hernandez simply piles up above-average innnings without injury.

The 2008 Most Outstanding Player

2008-03-29T09:38:00.002-04:00

Stephen Curry is putting on quite a show this March and I hope it doesn't end until April 7.

He and his fellow Davidson Wildcats have stunned everyone and advanced to the Elite 8. Going into the Tourney, I thought of picking them to beat Georgetown. I had followed Davidson all year and I knew they had played UCLA, Duke, and UNC tough. But, they had lost all 3 games and I couldn't see them getting past G'Town's size in the frontcourt.

Boy, was I wrong. Roy Hibbert played about 16 minutes and was never a factor. Curry, along with Jason Richards and Andrew Lovedale picked apart the vaunted Hoya defense with ease.

Then, with everyone hyping the Wisconsin defense, especially Michael Flowers, Davidson was once again expected to lose. Yet, here was Curry once more, pouring in 33 points. I see no reason now to pick against the Wildcats. Kansas is also renowned for its defense, ranking second behind Memphis nationally (But, remember what conference each plays in -- Kansas is the true #1). The Badgers were third and look what Davidson did. Seventy-three points and a seventeen point victory.

It seems those close, early-season losses to the big boys helped prepare Davidson for this tournament. Even if Davidson can't be considered a Cinderella, they certainly fit the profile. They have an excellent superstar, a great point guard, tremendous three-point ability, and a solid inside scorer. They rarely turn the ball over, having only 5 miscues against the Badgers, making it hard for the supposed favorite to make any extended runs. In fact, the 3-point ability allows Davidson to make the long runs. A 50% mark from long-range is unbelievable, but the Wildcats did just that Friday night. Curry now has 108 points in 3 games, but he also benefited from the heady play of point guard Jason Richards. The nation's leading assist man, Richards has put on his show this tournament with 27 dimes. He always seems to know right where Curry will be. Richards also has the speed and driving ability to keep defenses on their toes. They can't double off Richards because he can score plenty of points as well. Andrew Lovedale has upped his game recently as well. After averaging just seven points a game during the season, Lovedale has tallied 12 ppg in the tournament. His inside scoring and defense has been better than supposedly superior players like Josh Heytvelt, Brian Butch, and Roy Hibbert.

A big question to arise out of this run is whether Curry is an NBA player. His size had turned off many scouts. Listed at 6'3" 185, Curry looks about 20 pounds less. And, I thought I couldn't grow facial hair. But, man, look at his face. Curry has the face of a twelve-year-old. Nevertheless, he has proven in the past three games that he can play with the big boys. There's no doubt about his ability to score in college. He's shown over the past two years that he's a offensive machine. In the NBA though, he'll be matched up with much bigger 2-guards and will find his shot harder to come by. I think he'll have to show point guard skills to be effective at the next level. Unless he bulks up big-time in the offseason, there's really no other way. As a combo guard, Curry can become something along the lines of Bobby Jackson with a better outside shot or a smaller Eddie House. That's nothing to be ashamed of, but Curry is simply too small to be an NBA starter. He will get exploited on defense with extended playing time.

An interesting comparison would be JJ Redick. They are about the same size, play at Carolina schools, and are lights-out from long range. But, that's really where the comparison ends. At Duke, Redick had superficially similar stats to Curry. In his senior year, Redick put up 26.8 ppg, 2 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.4 spg, 47% FG, and 42% 3FG. Curry, in his sophomore year, is averaging 25.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.9 apg, 2.1 spg, 49% FG, and 45% 3FG. Here's the kicker, though. Curry does his damage in four less minutes per game. Before you start complaining about the difference in conferences, take one glance at what Curry has done in the tournament and the early games against UCLA, Duke, and UNC. He had 24 against UNC, 20 against Duke, 15 against UCLA, 32 against Charlotte, and 29 versus NC State. Curry is a better player than Redick. He has more athleticism, better ball-handling, and from what I've seen, superior defense. Because of his one-dimensional skillset, Redick has struggled in Orlando. I believe Curry, with his more rounded game, will ultimately be a solid pro. But, for now, let's enjoy Curry and his fellow Wildcats in the tournament. I know I won't be betting against him tomorrow night.

Final Baseball Predictions

2008-03-26T16:15:00.002-04:00

Division Champs:
AL East- Boston
AL Central- Detroit
AL West- Los Angeles
AL Wildcard- New York

ALDS- Detroit over New York, Boston over Los Angeles
ALCS- Boston over Detroit

NL East- New York
NL Central- Milwaukee
NL West- Arizona
NL Wildcard- Philadelphia

NLDS- New York over Milwaukee, Philadelphia over Arizona
NLCS- New York over Philadelphia

WORLD SERIES- Boston over New York

AL MVP- Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP- David Wright

AL Cy Young- C.C Sabathia
NL Cy Young- Johan Santana

AL Rookie of the Year- Daric Barton
NL Rookie of the Year- Kosuke Fukudome

First Manager to be fired- John Gibbons

Best mid-season callup- Evan Longoria

Best free agent signing- Fukudome
Worst free agent signing- Aaron Rowand

Best Trade- Tigers acquire Cabrera, Willis
Worst Trade- Twins don't get nearly enough for Santana

Best Offense- Detroit
Worst Offense- Pittsburgh

Best Rotation- Arizona
Worst Rotation- Florida

Best Bullpen- Boston
Worst Bullpen- Houston

All-Stars
C- Victor Martinez
1B- Albert Pujols
2B- Chase Utley
SS- Hanley Ramirez
3B- Alex Rodriguez
LF- Alfonso Soriano
CF- Grady Sizemore
RF- Matt Holliday
DH- David Ortiz
SP- Johan Santana
SP- Brandon Webb
SP- Jake Peavy
RP- Jonathan Broxton
RP- Rafael Betancourt
CP- Francisco Rodriguez

AL Central Preview

2008-03-25T15:58:00.004-04:00

Projected Order of Finish
Detroit
Cleveland
Chicago
Minnesota
Kansas City

Best Positional Player: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit
Best Pitcher: C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland
Best Rookie: Carlos Gomez, Minnesota

Divisional All-Star Team
C- Victor Martinez
1B- Justin Morneau, Minnesota
2B- Placido Polanco, Detroit
SS- Edgar Renteria, Detroit
3B- Miguel Cabrera, Detroit
LF- Delmon Young, Minnesota
CF- Grady Sizemore, Cleveland
RF- Magglio Ordonez, Detroit
DH- Jim Thome, Chicago
SP- C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland
SP- Justin Verlander, Detroit
SP- Fausto Carmona, Cleveland
SP- Javier Vazquez, Chicago
SP- Gil Meche, Kansas City
RP- Pat Neshek, Minnesota
RP- Rafael Betancourt, Cleveland
CP- Joe Nathan, Minnesota
CP- Bobby Jenks, Chicago

1. Detroit Tigers

Lineup
C- Ivan Rodriguez
1B- Carlos Guillen
2B- Placido Polanco
SS- Edgar Renteria
3B- Miguel Cabrera
LF- Jacque Jones
CF- Curtis Granderson
RF- Magglio Ordonez
DH- Gary Sheffield
Bench- C- Brandon Inge; INF- Ramon Santiago, Ryan Raburn; OF- Marcus Thames

Pitchers
SP- Justin Verlander
SP- Kenny Rogers
SP- Jeremy Bonderman
SP- Nate Robertson
SP- Dontrelle Willis
CP- Todd Jones
RP- Fernando Rodney
RP- Tim Byrdak
RP- Denny Bautista
RP- Bobby Seay
RP- Jason Grilli
RP- Yorman Bazardo

Remember how healthy the Tigers were in 2006? That magical run from the bottom of the Central standings was helped by the Tigers' team health. Polanco missed a bit of time in August and Zumaya missed a bit due to his Guitar Hero injury. Since then, Detroit has been bitten hard by the injury bug. Last year, the Tigers lost Rogers for a significant period of time. Sheffield and Bonderman were shells of themselves in the second half because of nagging pains. Zumaya missed more time and Vance Wilson was shelved for the year. The string of bad luck continues into 2008 unfortunately. Wilson is still out, forcing Inge to return to catching duties for the first time in four years. Zumaya is out once again, begging the question whether he'll ever return to his 2006 dominance. Rodney will also begin the year on the DL, leaving Detroit with a gaping hole in the seventh and eighth innings. The starting pitchers appear to be relatively healthy, but Rogers's 43-year-old arm could break down any moment (especially with the reckless abandon he shows on defense). In somewhat ironic fashion, the Tigers, filled with older veterans on offense, lost one of their youngest players to injury this week. Granderson will miss at least 2 weeks with a wrist injury. Inge will also sub-in here, though Raburn or Jones could also see time.

There are certainly no doubts about this team's ability to score runs. But, with the age of their offense and the injury history of a few players, it bears reminding how quickly their fortunes can change. As Cleveland showed in 2006, it doesn't matter what your offense does if the bullpen can't hold the lead. Much of the Tigers' success in 2008 will depend on the arms of Byrdak, Grilli, Bautista, and Seay. None of those pitchers have proven themselves to be more than average arms, so one or two will have to step his game up.

Luckily, Detroit has a solid rotation that can go deep into games. All five pitchers are capable of 15 wins and a 4.00 ERA. Detroit knows what it will get from Verlander and, to a lesser extent, Robertson, but there are still question marks surrounding the other three. Can Rogers hold up for at least 25+ starts? Can Willis rebound from his two-year decline if he's pitching in front of a better defense? Will Bonderman ever solve his first-inning struggles? If Detroit can answer at least two of the three, they should roll to a division title. Whether the bullpen provides more than average work will determine their October fate.

2. Cleveland Indians

Lineup
C- Victor Martinez
1B- Ryan Garko
2B- Asdrubal Cabrera
SS- Jhonny Peralta
3B- Casey Blake
LF- Jason Michaels
CF- Grady Sizemore
RF- Franklin Gutierrez
DH- Travis Hafner
Bench- C- Kelly Shoppach; INF- Jamey Carroll, Josh Barfield; OF- David Dellucci

Pitchers
SP- C.C. Sabathia
SP- Fausto Carmona
SP- Paul Byrd
SP- Jake Westbrook
SP- Cliff Lee
CP- Joe Borowski
RP- Rafael Perez
RP- Rafael Betancourt
RP- Jensen Lewis
RP- Masahide Kobayashi
RP- Craig Breslow
RP- Tom Mastny

What happened to Travis Hafner last year? At only 30 years old, Hafner saw his stats plummet across the board. He went from a .308/.439/.659 line to a .266/.385/.451 in 100 more plate appearances. Granted, he was still an above-average player, but compared to his previous three years, 2008 was a dramatic decline. He will be 31 in June, which, with his body shape, is an area of concern. He's always had what some baseball writers call, "old man skills." Basically, he doesn't have the speed to carry him as he ages and loses power. According to Baseball Prospectus, two of his most comparable players are Boog Powell and Kent Hrbek. Both were essentially done by age 32. If 2007 was the sign of the things to come for Hafner, Indian fans won't be happy about the next two years.

Cleveland has drastically overhauled their pitching in recent years, resulting in an extremely deep staff in '08. One through five, the Indian rotation ranks as one of the league's best. Sabathia, Carmona, Byrd, and Westbrook are capable of 15 wins and barely any walks. Their #5 man, Lee, won 32 games in 05-06, and will be given a chance to rebound in 2008 if he can keep the ball in the park. Combined with power relievers Perez and Betancourt, Cleveland will have no trouble shutting down opposing offenses. Passing Detroit will depend on getting production from players like Cabrera, Michaels, Gutierrez, and Blake on offense.

3. Chicago White Sox

Lineup
C- A.J. Pierzynski
1B- Paul Konerko
2B- Juan Uribe
SS- Orlando Cabrera
3B- Joe Crede
LF- Josh Fields
CF- Nick Swisher
RF- Jermaine Dye
DH- Jim Thome
Bench- C- Toby Hall; INF- Alexei Ramirez, Pablo Ozuna; OF- Jerry Owens, Carlos Quentin

Pitchers
SP- Javier Vazquez
SP- Mark Buerhle
SP- Jose Contreras
SP- Gavin Floyd
SP- John Danks
CP- Bobby Jenks
RP- Matt Thornton
RP- Octavio Dotel
RP- Mike MacDougal
RP- Ehren Wassermann
RP- Scott Linebrink
RP- Boone Logan

A lot of people seem to be writing this team off behind Cleveland and Detroit. But, I look at the Sox offense and I see potential for 85+ wins. Dye, Thome, and Konerko have been an impressive 3-4-5 and now they add Swisher to the mix. Plus, give Fields another year of development and he could hit 30 HRs. All in all, there's potential for a lot of high-scoring games between the top 3 in the Central.

However, Chicago has to pitch too. And therein lies the rub. Behind Vazquez, Buehrle, and Jenks, there is little value. Contreras is about done, as years of Cuban overuse likely did him in. Floyd and Danks are young arms that have yet to fulfill their potential. Chicago needs a least one of them to post a 4.00 ERA and stabilize the back end. The bullpen that was so successful in the 2005 title run has failed them miserably the last 2 years. Thornton and MacDougal have proven why they spent most of their 20s in the minors. Their lack of control and tendency to allow HRs by the bushel hurt them. If Linebrink and youngsters Wassermann and Logan can pitch like they have recently, the White Sox may have a new guard.

4. Minnesota Twins

Lineup
C- Joe Mauer
1B- Justin Morneau
2B- Brendan Harris
SS- Adam Everett
3B- Mike Lamb
LF- Delmon Young
CF- Carlos Gomez
RF- Michael Cuddyer
DH- Jason Kubel
Bench- C- Mike Redmond; INF- Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert; OF- Craig Monroe

Pitchers
SP- Francisco Liriano
SP- Scott Baker
SP- Livan Hernandez
SP- Boof Bonser
SP- Kevin Slowey
CP- Joe Nathan
RP- Pat Neshek
RP- Juan Rincon
RP- Matt Guerrier
RP- Jesse Crain
RP- Dennys Reyes
RP- Brian Bass

A new era begins in Minnesota without Johan Santana and Torii Hunter. In their steads are Livan Hernandez and Carlos Gomez. Hernandez has been on the downturn for three years now and moves to the stronger AL. Already, he has struggled mightily in spring training. It's confusing why the Twins even signed him. Minnesota has one of the best collection of young arms in baseball; there was no need to sign the aging veteran. Guys like Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins, Kevin Mulvey, or Philip Humber all could have performed just as well for 1/10th the cost. And for a team like Minnesota that refused to spend money on Santana, it's odd that they would overpay for Hernandez (or Craig Monroe for that matter).

Offensively, their fortunes seem to depend on two people: Mauer and Young. Mauer has made it through one full season since making the majors. In that season, he hit .347 with 36 doubles and only 54 Ks. Mauer must replace some of the offense Hunter took to LA because new CF Carlos Gomez isn't quite ready yet. Leftfielder Delmon Young, acquired for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett, has a big burden on his shoulders. He was traded for potentially the Twins' best starter and their best defensive infielder. Young was widely regarded as the number-one prospect in baseball before last year. However, he struggled to develop power (.408 SLG) or plate discipline (.316 OBP, 127 Ks). Still only 22, Young has plenty of time to improve. Twins fans will likely want the whole package in 2008. While that may not happen yet, he has Vlad Guerrero-like skills and could be ready to replace Hunter's production sooner than expected.

5. Kansas City Royals

Lineup
C- John Buck
1B- Mark Teahen
2B- Mark Grudzielanek
SS- Tony Pena, Jr.
3B- Alex Gordon
LF- Joey Gathright
CF- David DeJesus
RF- Jose Guillen
DH- Billy Butler
Bench- C- Miguel Olivo; INF- Esteban German, Ross Gload; OF- Shane Costa, Justin Huber

Pitchers
SP- Gil Meche
SP- Brian Bannister
SP- Zack Greinke
SP- John Bale
SP- Brett Tomko
CP- Joakim Soria
RP- Joel Peralta
RP- Ron Mahay
RP- Jimmy Gobble
RP- Yasuhiko Yabuta
RP- Leo Nunez
RP- Jorge De La Rosa

Although I'm picking KC for last, this team has more promise and ability than any Royals squad since 2003. They are solid across the diamond, except for Pena and maybe Gathright. Teahen and Gordon could form a potential All-Star corner combo. Butler has the power to hit 30+ HR from the DH slot, as could Guillen in right. But, Teahen and Gordon have also struggled to maintain consistency in the majors. Butler can't defend to save his life and Guillen has been a malcontent who has bounced from team to team. Wherever there are positives on this offense, there are also plenty of questions. The Royals clearly have the division's weakest offense, but it could have a surprisingly underrated pitching staff.

Anchored by Gil Meche, KC has a few good young pitchers. Bannister and Greinke back up Meche with solid off-speed stuff, using more wits than velocity. The back end of the bullpen is scary good. Soria, Peralta, Gobble, and Yabuta are all above-average relievers. Gobble has become a reliable LOOGY (Lefthanded One-Out GuY) after years struggling in the rotation. Soria was picked up for a song last year in the Rule V Draft. Peralta was let go by the Angels and KC quickly grabbed the hard-throwing righty. All told, the Royals cheaply assembled a quality relief staff, something more small-market teams should consider doing.

The Royals don't have the superstars to compete in this division, but they have some good young talent. If things bounce the right way, I wouldn't be surprised if they overtook Chicago or Minnesota.

AL East Preview

2008-03-24T16:11:00.003-04:00

Projected Order of Finish
Boston
New York
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Baltimore

Best Positional Player: Alex Rodriguez, New York
Best Pitcher: Josh Beckett, Boston
Best Rookie: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay

Divisional All-Star Team
C- Jorge Posada, New York
1B- Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay
2B- Robinson Cano, New York
SS- Derek Jeter, New York
3B- Alex Rodriguez, New York
LF- Manny Ramirez, Boston
CF- B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay
RF- Alexis Rios, Toronto
DH- David Ortiz, Boston
SP- Josh Beckett, Boston
SP- Chien-Ming Wang, New York
SP- Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay
SP- Roy Halladay, Toronto
SP- Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston
RP- Joba Chamberlain, New York
RP- Hideki Okajima, Boston
CP- Jonathan Papelbon, Boston
CP- Mariano Rivera, New York

1. Boston Red Sox

Lineup
C- Jason Varitek
1B- Kevin Youkilis
2B- Dustin Pedroia
SS- Julio Lugo
3B- Mike Lowell
LF- Manny Ramirez
CF- Jacoby Ellsbury
RF- J.D. Drew
DH- David Ortiz
Bench- C- Kevin Cash; INF- Sean Casey, Alex Cora; OF- Coco Crisp

Pitchers
SP- Josh Beckett
SP- Daisuke Matsuzaka
SP- Tim Wakefield
SP- Jon Lester
SP- Clay Buchholz
CP- Jonathan Papelbon
RP- Hideki Okajima
RP- Mike Timlin
RP- Manny Delcarmen
RP- Kyle Snyder
RP- Julian Tavarez
RP- Javier Lopez

Have the Red Sox surpassed the Yankees yet in terms of ESPN overkill/annoying fans? It's certainly a fair question to ask. After all, the multiple late '90s-early '00s playoff losses, especially the Aaron Boone 2003 ALCS Game 7, brought back the curse theory. Then, when the Sox finally broke through in 2004 and 2007, everybody and their mother became a fan. They were no longer the underdog, spending just as much as the Yanks and competing for the outrageously priced foreign free agents. If you only watched ESPN for your baseball coverage, you would think it's a two-team league. Frankly, I can't stand the overhyped April matchups between the Yanks and the Sox. Watch as John Kruk and Peter Gammons and Steve Phillips foam at the mouth just waiting for the first pitch. It's quite a sight.

In reality, the Red Sox have surpassed the Yankees on the field. Their player development and wise spending in free agency has given them the leg up in the AL East. In fact, 2007 was the first time a team besides the Yankees had won the East since 1997 (Baltimore). I don't see this year being any different. Even though Schilling is out for the majority of the year, Boston has plenty of young arms to counter with. Buchholz, fresh off a September no-hitter, and Lester are more than capable pitchers in the back end of the rotation. Delcarmen is emerging as the new right-handed setup man behind Papelbon.

On offense, Ramirez and Varitek may be declining due to age. But, even their decline phases are more than enough compared to the average player. Ortiz continues to surge in his 30s, leaving behind his ugly and oft-forgotten time in Minnesota. Since he didn't hit 50 homeruns like in 2006, many people didn't notice Ortiz having his best year as a pro in 2007. He's definitely making a case for being the best DH of all-time. The other contenders? Edgar Martinez and Paul Molitor.

A couple other things to note: Pedroia was awful until about mid-May last year. Once he got adjusted to big-league ball, he was one of the best 2b in the league. Let's see what he can do with a full season under his belt. Same goes with Ellsbury. He was lights-out in September and October. Now a full-time starter, he should rank with Granderson, Suzuki, and Sizemore as the best CFs in the American League.

2. New York Yankees

Lineup
C- Jorge Posada
1B- Jason Giambi
2B- Robinson Cano
SS- Derek Jeter
3B- Alex Rodriguez
LF- Johnny Damon
CF- Melky Cabrera
RF- Bobby Abreu
DH- Hideki Matsui
Bench- C- Jose Molina; INF- Wilson Betemit, Morgan Ensberg; OF- Shelley Duncan

Pitchers
SP- Chien-Ming Wang
SP- Andy Pettitte
SP- Philip Hughes
SP- Mike Mussina
SP- Ian Kennedy
CP- Mariano Rivera
RP- Joba Chamberlain
RP- Kyle Farnsworth
RP- LaTroy Hawkins
RP- Edwar Ramirez
RP- Brian Bruney
RP- Sean Henn

I feel like the 2008 Yankees are teetering on the edge of a collapse. They have a few great players in their primes (A-Rod, Wang, Chamberlain, and Cano). They have a few potentially great young players who may or may not fulfill that hope this season (Hughes, Kennedy, Cabrera). But, the majority of their roster is filled with aging veterans who could suffer an injury or rapidly decline at any moment. Their outfield consists of Cabrera and three guys who should be DHing. Their first baseman also needs to DH. The problem is that three of those four will have to play the field each game. Jeter may not be as old as those four, but his defense has never been his strong point, no matter how many Gold Gloves he's won. By the way, that's the most meaningless award in baseball. It's usually given out year after year to the same player, mostly to players who are good on offense as well. You're really telling me Greg Maddux was the best defensive pitcher for 16 years? Think about it. Players have bad years on defense, too. But, the average voter can't tell, so they just vote the same as the year before.

ANYWAY, the Yankees defense figures to be one of the worst in baseball this year. This is especially troubling because of the makeup of the pitching staff. Wang is one of the most extreme ground-ball pitchers in baseball, rarely striking batters out. With an aging Jeter and Giambi behind him on the infield, a few more of those grounders will get to the outfield each year. Also, as Pettitte and Mussina have gotten older, their K rates have gone down, as they, too, rely on defense more. Hughes and Kennedy may be the lucky ones, with more powerful strikeout pitches, but I still many balls dropping in the outfield. Cabrera better be conditioned this year, running from left to right helping out Damon and Abreu.

3. Tampa Bay Rays

Lineup
C- Dioner Navarro
1B- Carlos Pena
2B- Akinori Iwamura
SS- Jason Bartlett
3B- Evan Longoria
LF- Carl Crawford
CF- B.J. Upton
RF- Jonny Gomes
DH- Cliff Floyd
Bench- C- Shawn Riggans; INF- Willy Aybar, Ben Zobrist; OF- Justin Ruggiano, Joel Guzman

Pitchers
SP- Scott Kazmir
SP- James Shields
SP- Matt Garza
SP- Andy Sonnanstine
SP- Edwin Jackson
CP- Troy Percival
RP- Dan Wheeler
RP- Al Reyes
RP- Gary Glover
RP- Trever Miller
RP- Scott Dohmann
RP- Juan Salas

My pick for the most improved team in baseball. While the Yankees will be a poor defensive team largely because of old, balky knees and legs, the Rays were the worst team on D last year for a different reason. They had a lot of inexperience and people playing out of position. Upton couldn't handle second base, faring much better in CF. Former SS Brendan Harris never had the range to play short, so Bartlett was brought in from Minnesota. Iwamura moves over to second, where his weak arm will play better. All in all, Baseball Prospectus projects the new-look Rays to improve significantly on defense. That change will greatly help their young pitchers.

In fact, this will be the best pitching staff in the Rays' young history. For the first time, they have a legit 1-2-3 trio. And all 3 are in their 20s. Kazmir, Shields, and Garza could all win 15 games if their offense comes through as expected. They still don't have the needed depth at the 4 and 5 slots, but Sonnanstine should be respectable at least. However, they have some of the best pitching prospects in baseball waiting in the minors. Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, Jacob McGee, and #1 pick David Price could all make their debuts this season.

On offense, 3B Evan Longoria projects to be the AL Rookie of the Year. Look for him to be somewhere between Ryan Braun and Ryan Zimmerman, which is a heck of a player. The big question mark is their outfield depth. Baldelli recently was diagnosed with a potentially career-ending injury. He has a rare disease where his muscles don't work properly. It makes him recover much more slowly from workouts and leaves him extremely fatigued very quickly. This leaves Tampa with no major league backups. They could use INF backups Guzman or Aybar as emergency backups in LF or RF, but they may not work defensively. Here's where the recent Barry Bonds rumors were so interesting. Why would either side not agree to a deal? Sign Bonds to an incentive-laden deal to play in a LF/DH platoon. He can drastically improve ticket sales in the notoriously empty Tropicana Field. He can still mash the ball and will help provide a second power source behind Pena. For Bonds, it gives him a chance to play on a team that could potentially win 85 games this year, much more than San Fran has won the past two years. He gets a chance to play in a warmer/more forgiving climate than San Fran. He can improve his 'me-only' image by playing well against the Sox/Yanks. This almost makes too much sense. But, I don't think Tampa has the guts to do it.

4. Toronto Blue Jays

Lineup
C- Gregg Zaun
1B- Lyle Overbay
2B- Aaron Hill
SS- David Eckstein
3B- Scott Rolen
LF- Matt Stairs
CF- Vernon Wells
RF- Alexis Rios
DH- Frank Thomas
Bench- C- Rod Barajas; INF- Marco Scutaro, John McDonald; OF- Shannon Stewart

Pitchers
SP- Roy Halladay
SP- A.J. Burnett
SP- Dustin McGowan
SP- Jesse Litsch
SP- Shaun Marcum
CP- B.J. Ryan
RP- Jeremy Accardo
RP- Scott Downs
RP- Jason Frasor
RP- Brian Tallet
RP- Brandon League
RP- Brian Wolfe

Toronto is vaguely similar to the Yankees, only about 10x worse. They are stocked with old, injury-prone players, except they don't have the young superstars that New York does. And, they don't have the minor league depth or money New York has to patch up any holes that might crop up. Their lineup is built around 40-year-olds Matt Stairs and Frank Thomas. Rolen might as well be 40, with the way his body has broken down. In fact, he is already hurt and will likely begin the year on the DL. Overbay and Wells each had one of the worst years of their careers in 2007, and with both over 30, it's hard to predict them rebounding too greatly. Frankly, besides Hill and Rios, this is a depressing team with little promise. Of course, if everything breaks right and everyone stays healthy, they have a great shot at 90 wins. But, that is a very slim possibility.

Their pitching is much better, if only because Roy Halladay is a workhorse in the rotation. Burnett is in a contract year, so we may see a good, injury-free year out of him. McGowan is proving to be a potential #2 starter, after a couple years missed to injury. Litsch and Marcum are two young arms who came out of nowhere last year to patch up the backend of the rotation. Ryan also returns as closer after missing 2007. In his absence, Accardo showed his talents and will be a great option in the 8th. I like Toronto's staff, but I fear they may be overtaxed if the offense suffers any injuries.

5. Baltimore Orioles

Lineup
C- Ramon Hernandez
1B- Kevin Millar
2B- Brian Roberts
SS- Luis Hernandez
3B- Melvin Mora
LF- Luke Scott
CF- Adam Jones
RF- Nick Markakis
DH- Aubrey Huff
Bench- C- Guillermo Quiroz; INF- Freddie Bynum, Scott Moore; OF- Jay Payton, Jay Gibbons

Pitchers
SP- Jeremy Guthrie
SP- Adam Loewen
SP- Daniel Cabrera
SP- Troy Patton
SP- Matt Albers
CP- George Sherrill
RP- Danys Baez
RP- Jamie Walker
RP- Chad Bradford
RP- Dennis Sarfate
RP- Brian Burres
RP- James Hoey

Remember when I said the Giants were the worst team this year? Baltimore will give them a run for their money. Whereas San Fran has to compete against four playoff-quality teams in their division, Baltimore must deal with Boston, New York, and an improving Tampa team. The Orioles have completely given in to a rebuilding process after years spent on overpriced free agents and a barren farm system. They traded #1 pitcher Erik Bedard for CF Adam Jones and new closer George Sherrill. Jones could be the Orioles' best player already in 2008. Combined with third-year RF Nick Markakis, Baltimore has the makings of a 1-2 combo to build around. Second baseman Roberts, the Orioles' best veteran, should be traded by July 31. Other than the two young OFs, Baltimore has little less but old, washed-up backup outfielder types. Millar, Payton, Huff, Mora, and Gibbons have all seen their best days, but all will see significant time on this team.

Baltimore should take this year to evaluate their young pitchers. They have an intriguing collection that probably doesn't include future ace. But, they need to sort out which ones can become #2s and #3s and try to trade the other ones for offensive depth. Between the likes of Garrett Olson, Troy Patton, Matt Albers, Brian Burres, and Adam Loewen, Baltimore should find some help. Their nominal number on is currently Jeremy Guthrie, who is already 29 and just had his first full big-league season. That should explain everything about their 2008 chances.

Live blogging the Tourney

2008-03-20T12:44:00.032-04:00

I'll be passing along notes and thoughts throughout the day as the NCAA Tournament kicks off its opening weekend. Hope you enjoy it.

12:30 Games:

MSU-Temple- MSU clearly has the edge inside early with Naymick, Gray, and Suton. But the Owls offense is doing much better from the perimeter so far.
Can Georgia really continue their momentum from last weekend? 15 minutes through the first half, it seems so. The Bulldogs won four conference games in the regular season, and four in one weekend. Xavier's defense has to eventually overtake the Bulldogs.
Why does Michigan St. always play these ugly, hideous looking games? They have such talented players, it always amazes me when they score 40 points in a game. Temple is shooting 4-14, MSU at 6-16 so far. If the Owls could make some of their inside shots (Sergio Olmos, I'm looking at you), it'd be a different game.
The Spartans are taking away the Owls' biggest strength -- 3-point shooting. They've only made 1-9 so far, and they don't have the inside scoring to make up for that.
I'm surprised at Xavier's lack of defense thus far. They're giving up too many fast break points. Georgia basically has one bit weapon, Sundiata Gaines, but today everyone is contributing. Xavier can't let this last-place team get so many easy buckets.
Xavier couldn't even get a shot off before halftime. To me, that is the mark of an inexperienced team. Xavier's seniors have made 3 NCAA Tourneys, there's no way they should be making that kind of error.
Temple has airballed about 3 or 4 shots now. I wonder how often a team wins when airballing that many attempts? They're complaining about fouls, but even so, that seems more like a trend than a coincidence.
Halftime Scores: Georgia 35-26 over Xavier. Kansas 49-26 over Portland St. Georgia is shooting 53% at half, Xavier 35%.
Temple is starting to get hot at the end of the first half, as their threes begin to fall. Now, they just need leading scorer Dionte Christmas to get going. With two early fouls, he's had trouble finding a rhythm.
The big question in the MSU-Temple second half will be, which star can get hot? Christmas and Tyndale have 2 combined points for Temple. MSU has only gotten 3 from Neitzel.
Halftime Score: Michigan St. 35-26 over Temple.
Mark it down at 15:45 left in the 2nd half. Georgia's center Dave Bliss picks up his 3rd foul with his team up 43-32. Let's see if Xavier can take advantage of the extra space in the lane.
Remember how I said that Temple's weakness is inside? If you didn't believe me then, believe me now: Drew Naymick of all people has 7 points and 4 rebounds.
The Spartans defense has continued its dominance from the first half. They've only allowed two points through the first TV timeout. MSU has been especially good denying entry passes. When the Owls finally catch the ball, they're out near the 3-point line.
Bliss comes back, Jackson goes out for Georgia. Their 2 starting big men have 3 fouls each with 12 minutes still to play. Xavier needs Duncan and Brown inside to take advantage. The problem is Georgia's ability to answer each time. Every time it seems Xavier will make a run, Georgia comes right back with a 3 or an easy layup.
Midway through the second half, this is the Xavier defense we're all used to. Steals, rebounds, strong perimeter D, it's all there. You can see why Stanley Burrell won the A-10 Defensive Player of the Year.
Tyndale can't even make a dunk. Things are not going well for the Owls. This isn't hockey or soccer. You need to score more than 2 points in 7 minutes to win a ballgame.
Xavier finally completed their comeback and they did it in true Xavier fashion. Their defense created a few turnovers, which led to fast break opportunities. That created easy, wide open 3's, giving Xavier the lead after being down by double digits most of the game. Georgia's turnovers seem to be a sign that the Bulldogs are finally falling back to earth.
The Spartans are pulling away gradually. Up 18 with 9 minutes to go, there aren't any signs of a let-up. Temple can't hit any shots, no matter where they are on the court. When your strength is outside shooting, your team can look pretty ugly when those shot don't fall. Temple has been unable to penetrate against the stout Spartan D. Morgan, Neitzel, and Lucas are playing great D against the Owls, allowing very little room to the opposing guards.
As well as Burrell as played on D for Xavier, Duncan has done just as well for them on offense. He has more speed and athleticism than anyone on Georgia's frontcourt. That advantage has allowed him to drive inside or shoot his mid-range jumper. Georgia's magical run looks almost done here with 5 minutes left and down 8. Their lack of frontcourt production has hindered them when teams gang up on Woodbury and Gaines in the backcourt.
Final Score: Kansas 85-61 over Portland St.
Upsets are usually keyed when the underdog's star player has a big game. They often need that big performance to push their team over the top. Without that kind of production, the underdog is left playing with its secondary players; these guys normally belong nowhere near the favored team in terms of talent. For Temple, Dionte Christmas' struggles today will be a major factor in the loss. It's tough to win against a top Big 10 team when your star PG shoots 1-9.
Final Score: Michigan St. 72-61 over Temple.
Final Score: Xavier 73-61 over Georgia.

2:30 Games (Marquette v. Kentucky, Baylor v. Purdue, Kent St. v. UNLV, Oral Roberts v. Pittsburgh)

The Marq./Kentucky game should heavily favor the guards. With Patrick Patterson out to injury, all the impact players are in the backcourt. The Wildcats' Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford key the Kentucky attack. For Marquette, it's a guard rotation of Dominic James, Wesley Matthews, and Jerel McNeal. So far, Crawford and Bradley are winning the battle. Maybe Crawford will finally give Wildcats fans a reason why he was such a highly touted recruit 4 years ago.
Marquette's Lazar Hayward is already making an impact for the Eagles. Kentucky has little post presence now. While Hayward is no All-America, he's better than anything the Wildcats have. A big game out of him will swing the battle away from the guards.
More reason why Kentucky won't win this game: no one has scored besides Crawford and Bradley. Their rebounding is nonexistent. Even Dan Fitzgerald, the Eagles 3-point specialist, was able to grab a wide-open rebound underneath and put in an easy layup.
It looks like Kent St. forgot the game started already. They have six turnovers and one field goal six minutes in. Luckily, their defense is keeping them in the game, holding UNLV to below-average shooting.
Kentucky is making up for its inside weakness by playing great perimeter defense. Marquette is only shooting about 33%. The Eagles have also failed to capitalize on the boards. The Wildcat guards are rebounding very well for their size, with 9 boards.
The Baylor-Purdue game is an amazing contrast in styles. Purdue's methodical offense leads to plenty of open shots and mid-range jumpers. Baylor plays at a much faster pace, going for 3's and penetration. So far, it seems to be working for both squads.
Kentucky and Marquette are playing at an extremely high pace, but their shots aren't falling. The difference, as I noted earlier, is Hayward. He has 9 points and 6 rebounds at the half. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have a heavy imbalance on offense. Only Crawford and Bradley are contributing. Stevenson has done a little, but he needs to do more on defense to stop Hayward.
Halftime Score: Marquette 33-29 over Kentucky.
Baylor's fast pace is leading to a tired defense. They're allowing Purdue to get open looks off screens and switches. The Boilermakers are a smart team, which is odd considering their youth. Their fundamental play is tough to come back against. So, the Bears can't allow themselves to fall too far behind because Purdue won't turn the ball over much.
And I thought Michigan had bad offense. Kent St. has just 10 points at the half. They made 5-23 shots and turned it over 17 times. The Rebels only shot 43%, but when you can create so many fast break opps, it's relatively easy to pile up a 21-point lead.
Halftime Score: UNLV 31-10 over Kent St.
When will Marquette decide to defend Joe Crawford? He's scored half of the Wildcat points because of his strength and penetration ability. But, someone on the Eagles has to pick him up. Like I said, the favored team can't let a star player get hot against them. Make the role players do the work.
Halftime Score: Pittsburgh 47-24 over Oral Roberts, Purdue 46-27 over Baylor.
The Eagles are starting to exert their dominance over Kentucky now. A couple steals and a block lead to fast break points and a powerful dunk by Lazar Hayward. They're starting to recognize Crawford and where he is on the floor. Their athleticism advantage over Kentucky is finally showing and it shouldn't be long before the Golden Eagles stretch the lead.
We have one game now that is under an 18 pt lead. Kentucky has hung in there longer than I thought they would. The shooting struggles of James (1-6) and Matthews (2-9) have hurt the Golden Eagles. Without Crawford scoring 28 points, the Wildcats would be nowhere near Marquette. It took him four years, but he's finally become the go-to scorer that Kentucky thought they were getting as a freshman.
With all the blowouts, I'm going to head out to the Michigan baseball home opener. I should be able to catch the last four innings.

2008 NCAA Tournament Preview (cont.)

2008-03-19T16:10:00.002-04:00

South (Houston)

Best Player
Brook Lopez, Stanford

Best Matchup
Mississippi St. (8) v. Oregon (9)

Biggest Sleeper
Temple (12)

Upset Special
Temple (12) over Michigan St. (5)

First Round
Memphis over Texas-Arlington
Mississippi St. over Oregon
Temple over Michigan St.
Pittsburgh over Oral Roberts
Marquette over Kentucky
Stanford over Cornell
St. Mary's over Miami
Texas over Austin Peay

Second Round
Memphis over Mississippi St.
Pittsburgh over Temple
Stanford over Marquette
Texas over St. Mary's

Third Round
Memphis over Pittsburgh
Texas over Stanford

South Regional Final
Texas over Memphis

West (Phoenix)

Best Player
Kevin Love, UCLA

Best Matchup
West Virginia (7) v. Arizona (10)

Biggest Sleeper
Baylor (11)

Upset Special
Baylor (11) over Purdue (6)

First Round
UCLA over Mississippi Valley St.
Texas A&M over BYU
Drake over Western Kentucky
Connecticut over San Diego
Baylor over Purdue
Xavier over Georgia
West Virginia over Arizona
Duke over Belmont

Second Round
UCLA over Texas A&M
UConn over Drake
Xavier over Baylor
Duke over West Virginia

Third Round
UCLA over UConn
Xavier over Duke

West Regional Final
UCLA over Xavier

FINAL FOUR PICKS

North Carolina over Kansas
UCLA over Texas

UCLA over North Carolina

2008 NCAA Tournament Analysis (cont.)

2008-03-18T16:35:00.005-04:00

Midwest Region (Detroit)

Best Player

Michael Beasley, Kansas St.

Beasley has been a man among boys for the Wildcats this year. His averages of 26.5 and 12.4 are incredible for a freshman. It isn't like he's doing this because of heavy shot volume either. He shoots 54% from the field, 39% from long range, and 77% from the line. Unfortunately, only one other teammate, Bill Walker, averages 10+ pts/gm. This hampered the Wildcats in the Big 12 season, as they've lost 7 times since February 1st. In the first round, Beasley will go up against O.J. Mayo and USC. The Trojans feature a much better supporting cast than K-St. Players like Davon Jefferson and Taj Gibson have the size and athleticism to defend Beasley. If he is neutralized, the rest of the Wildcats may be put in a difficult situation.

Best Matchup

USC (6) v. Kansas St. (11)

The matchup of highly touted freshmen, Beasley and Mayo, has all the TV and ad execs drooling. Both players have lived up to the hype thus far, compiling All-America type numbers and leading his team into the Big Dance. As always with the Wildcats, this game will hinge on the play of the supporting cast. Beasley will put up his 20 and 10 regardless whether they win or lose. But K-St needs Walker and Jacob Pullen to add some scoring. When those two play well, the Wildcats usually win. Too often, the Wildcats get caught ceding to Beasley and forgetting how to play the game. The Trojans, meanwhile, surround their best player with an excellent cast. Jefferson and Gibson are beasts down low. Gibson is the rebounder and banger, while Jefferson tends to play above the rim and make the flashier plays. If one of them can get Beasley in foul trouble early, K-St will be in serious danger. Trojan PG Daniel Hackett is only a sophomore but he played major minutes for USC's 2007 tournament team. Hackett, along with Gibson and forward Dwight Lewis, gives USC a big edge in tournament experience. Playing close to home, in Omaha, the Wildcats would seem to have a slight advantage. But, K-St has struggled on road and neutral courts. I cannot see this team having much success if Beasley doesn't score 40 and rebound 20. Even then, the Trojan depth is much superior and will clinch the victory.

Biggest Sleeper

Davidson (10)

Playing close to home in Raleigh, Davidson has a great chance to make the Sweet 16. Led by supreme shooter, Stephen Curry, the Wildcats should have no problem dispatching Gonzaga. Remember, this Davidson squad only lost by 4 to North Carolina, 6 to Duke, and 12 to UCLA. And Davidson led by 17 at one point against the Bruins. So, this is certainly no small-conference fluke. Curry, 25.1 ppg, can score from anywhere on the court. If he were playing at Duke, Dick Vitale would be all over him as the second coming of J.J. Redick. Curry shoots 49% from the floor, 44% from 3-point, and 90% from the line. He even grabs 5 boards a game at 6'2" tall. His backcourt mate, Jason Richards, is no slouch either. He puts up 12.6 ppg with a 2.5:1 assist-turnover ratio. The key for Davidson will be their frontcourt players. Defending Gonzaga's Josh Heytvelt and Austin Daye or even G'Town's Roy Hibbert will require excellent defense from Boris Meno, Thomas Sander, and Andrew Lovedale. All 3 average better than five boards/gm while shooting over 50% from the field. Nothing less than that will be acceptable against the Bulldogs or Hoyas. But, if Curry can get his 25-30 points and his teammates can chip in superb defense and smart (i.e. few turnovers) play, there's no telling how far this team can go. Just keep in mind how well they played UNC, Duke, and UCLA early on. On a more neutral court, those games could be much different.

Upset Special
If I can't count my previously mentioned K-St or Davidson possibilities, I'd have to go with Villanova (12) over Clemson (5).

Personally, I see Clemson winning by double-digits over Nova. The Tigers have an impressive inside duo of James Mays and Trevor Booker that Nova can't really match. Dante Cunningham is a solid player, but he's nowhere near the caliber of player that the Tigers have. However, if Nova guard Scottie Reynolds can get hot, they have a chance. He can score points in bunches and in the tourney, a hot streak can make a big difference. It's not necessarily about the best overall team, but the best team at the current time.

First Round
Kansas over Portland St.
UNLV over Kent St.
Clemson over Villanova
Vanderbilt over Siena
USC over Kansas St.
Wisconsin over Cal St.-Fullerton
Davidson over Gonzaga
Georgetown over Maryland-Baltimore County

Second Round
Kansas over UNLV
Clemson over Vanderbilt
Wisconsin over USC
G'Town over Davidson

Third Round
Kansas over Clemson
Wisconsin over G'Town

Midwest Regional Final
Kansas over Wisconsin

2008 NCAA Tournament Analysis

2008-03-17T16:29:00.007-04:00

From now until Thursday, I'll be going region-by-region, analyzing the matchups, teams, and revealing my picks. Today, the East Region:

East (Charlotte)

Best Player

Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina

He may be one of the more annoying players to watch in all of basketball, but there's no doubting the stats he puts up. Every time you look up, he seems to be shooting free throws. Hansbrough has made his living being physical and getting the easy buckets. Whether they're free throws, lay-ups, or dunks, Hansbrough lives inside the paint. He's unlikely to make much of an impact in the pros, where his short arms and defensive weaknesses will be exploited. But, for now, Hansbrough is the best player in this region and one of the top 3 in the nation (along with Michael Beasley and Kevin Love).

Best Matchup

Butler (7) v. South Alabama (10)

Even as the higher seed, Butler will be playing a virtual road game in the first round. The Jaguars get the advantage of playing in Birmingham, not far from USA's Mobile campus. This matchup offers a great contrast of styles. Butler plays a slower, more methodical game based on defense and open 3-pointers. The Jaguars are much more physical on the glass and play at a faster pace. The teams were relatively even in the regular season, each team outscoring its opposition by about 10 ppg. However, USA outrebounded its opponents by 7/gm, while the Bulldogs had about one less per game than its opponents. Headed by thick 6'6" forwards Brandon Davis and DeAndre Coleman, USA will look to use its inside power to beat Butler's superior 3-point ability. Butler will need a big game from freshman Matt Howard down low. Two of USA's losses were to Ole Miss by 5 and Vandy in double OT, so it's not like the Jaguars are an unknown. Butler may be the bigger name, but playing in front of the home Alabama crowd, they will be severely tested.

Biggest Sleeper
George Mason (12)

The team that finished 8th in 2006 and went to the Final Four is back in the Tourney after a year off. Four players remain from that team, including starters Will Thomas and Folarin Campbell. Mason has the key ingredients to make a run this season. They have the inside presence with Thomas (15.8, 10.5). The Patriots also have three capable long-range shooters in Campbell, John Vaughan, and Dre Smith. The experience of Thomas and Campbell should not be underestimated. Whereas most mid-major and low-major schools can be psyched-out before the opening tip, the Patriots will be more than ready to play. Going against 5 seed Notre Dame and possibly 4 seed Washington St. in the second round, G. Mason has a good shot to make the Sweet 16.

Upset Special
St. Joseph's (11) over Oklahoma (6)

I think the Sooners are the most over-ranked team in this region. They were outscored by opponents in the Big 12. They have a strong inside presence with Blake Griffin and Longar Longar, but they are weak offensively in the backcourt. Only one player, Tony Crocker, can be considered a legitimate outside threat. But the Hawks have four players shooting at least 35% from long-range. Plus, with Pat Calathes and Ahmad Nivins, St. Joe's has the inside ability to stop Griffin and Longar. The Hawks shoot better from 2's, 3's, and the line than the Sooners. The teams are about even in turnovers and defense, so this game will likely come down to offense. If that's the case, the Hawks will win. Griffin or Longar is going to have guard Calathes on the perimeter because of his shooting. Taking a premium Sooner defender and rebounder outside the paint opens up plenty of lanes for passing and penetrating. Oklahoma played Texas three times this year, losing all 3 and never scoring more than 54 points. What does Texas do similar to St. Joe? They have big men who can play outside (Damion James and Connor Atchley) and guards who shoot a high percentage. I predict a win for the Hawks down in Birmingham.

First Round
North Carolina over play-in winner
Indiana over Arkansas
Notre Dame over George Mason
Washington St. over Winthrop
St. Joe's over Oklahoma
Louisville over Boise St.
South Alabama over Butler
Tennessee over American

Second Round
N. Carolina over Indiana
Notre Dame over Wash. St.
Louisville over St. Joe's
Tennessee over S. Alabama

Third Round
N. Carolina over N. Dame
Louisville over Tennessee

East Regional Final
North Carolina over Louisville

AL West Preview

2008-03-16T12:21:00.003-04:00

Moving on to the American League today, I will examine the AL West, baseball's smallest division. For the past decade, this division has really been about 3 teams: Oakland, L.A., and Seattle. Texas has found itself in third or fourth every year since 1999. Meanwhile, the Angels have suddenly become big spenders under owner Artie Moreno. Since he took over after their World Series win in 2002, L.A. has seen its payroll increase rapidly. It now ranks annually in baseball's top 5. However, that spending has not helped the Angels return to the Series. After striking out with last year's big free agent acquisition (Gary Matthews, Jr.), the Angels hope to turn the tables with this year's signing, Torii Hunter. Seattle traded away its best young player, OF Adam Jones, for pitcher Erik Bedard. Everyone seems to think Bedard is an ace pitcher, especially considering Seattle traded five players for him. Yet, he's only pitched one full season, thrown one complete game, never thrown 200 innings in a season, and has had only two seasons with an ERA under 4.00. It's not like he's young at 29. But, with little else behind King Felix Hernandez, Seattle had to make a move to compete with L.A.

Projected Order of Finish
Los Angeles
Seattle
Oakland
Texas

Best Positional Player: Vladimir Guerrero, L.A.
Best Pitcher: John Lackey, L.A.
Best Rookie: Daric Barton, Oakland

Divisional All-Star Team
C- Kenji Johjima, Seattle
1B- Daric Barton, Oakland
2B- Ian Kinsler, Texas
SS- Michael Young, Texas
3B- Adrian Beltre, Seattle
LF- Gary Matthews, Jr., L.A.
CF- Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle
RF- Vladimir Guerrero, L.A.
DH- Jack Cust, Oakland
SP- John Lackey, L.A.
SP- Erik Bedard, Seattle
SP- Felix Hernandez, Seattle
SP- Kelvim Escobar, L.A.
SP- Joe Blanton, Oakland
RP- Alan Embree, Oakland
RP- Scot Shields, L.A.
CP- J.J. Putz, Seattle
CP- Francisco Rodriguez, L.A.

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Lineup
C- Mike Napoli
1B- Casey Kotchman
2B- Howie Kendrick
SS- Erick Aybar
3B- Chone Figgins
LF- Gary Matthews, Jr.
CF- Torii Hunter
RF- Vladimir Guerrero
DH- Garret Anderson
Bench- C- Jeff Mathis; INF- Maicer Izturis, Robb Quinlan; OF- Juan Rivera, Reggie Willits

Pitchers
SP- John Lackey
SP- Kelvim Escobar
SP- Jered Weaver
SP- Jon Garland
SP- Ervin Santana
CP- Francisco Rodriguez
RP- Scot Shields
RP- Justin Speier
RP- Darren Oliver
RP- Joe Saunders
RP- Dustin Moseley
RP- Chris Bootcheck

The Angels' chances of winning the title in 2008 will hinge on two things: the health of their outfield and their pitching. They have dependable young talent in the infield who should all be improving as they hit their primes. But, the outfielders are all on the wrong side of 30. Manager Mike Scioscia will have to be careful how he doles out playing time amongst the four starters. Guerrero, Anderson, Matthews, and Hunter will have to rotate between the OF and DH to stay fresh. Guerrero has been injured on and off for years now because of the early pounding his knees went through on that horrible Montreal turf. Anderson is 36 and has seen his power decline rapidly over the past three years. The smart move would be to play Juan Rivera in his place, but Scioscia seems content to ride out Anderson until his retirement. Matthews was never worth the contract he signed last off-season. He had one decent season that was amplified by Texas' great hitting atmosphere and his highlight-reel catch. Now, L.A. is stuck with his contract for three more years. They admitted their mistake by signing Hunter this winter, but it remains to be seen how this will pan out. Hunter, too, is 33 and is unlikely to match last year's stats. By the time late summer rolls around, we may see L.A. playing Rivera and Reggie Willits much more often if the old starters break down. Oddly enough, that may net the Angels a few more wins. After all, big names and big money don't always guarantee big success.

Los Angeles has already seen their top two starters go down to injury. Lackey will be out until mid to late April. Escobar will likely be out until May. But, the Angels have the depth to account for these setbacks. That's why they're in first place so often in this division. Filling in will be Joe Saunders and Dustin Moseley, two players with plenty of starting experience already. Over the past 3 seasons, 27-year-old Saunders has started 33 games. In what amounts to a full season, Saunders has gone 15-8 with a 4.71 ERA. Moseley pitched in 46 games last year, starting 8. He had a 4.40 ERA. To have two guys like Moseley and Saunders on your bench is a major boon. Both could easily start for half of the other major league teams. The Angels can relax knowing they will get at least league-average innings from their replacements. They don't have to worry about taxing their bullpen or calling up an untested minor leaguer. The problem lies in the length of the pitchers' injuries. If either Lackey or Escobar miss a significant amount of time, the Angels will feel the effects. As good as Saunders and Moseley are, they are not aces. They're capable replacements in the short-term, but over a few months, they won't pitch like a #1 starter.

2. Seattle Mariners

Lineup
C- Kenji Johjima
1B- Richie Sexson
2B- Jose Lopez
SS- Yuniesky Betancourt
3B- Adrian Beltre
LF- Brad Wilkerson
CF- Ichiro Suzuki
RF- Raul Ibanez
DH- Jose Vidro
Bench- C- Jeff Clement; INF- Willie Bloomquist, Miguel Cairo; OF- Jeremy Reed, Wladimir Balentien

Pitchers
SP- Erik Bedard
SP- Felix Hernandez
SP- Jarrod Washburn
SP- Carlos Silva
SP- Miguel Batista
CP- J.J. Putz
RP- Arthur Rhodes
RP- Eric O'Flaherty
RP- Brandon Morrow
RP- Mark Lowe
RP- R.A. Dickey
RP- Sean Green

The Mariners are an intriguing team. Based on pitching alone, they are a worthy playoff contender. Playing in cavernous Safeco Field, Seattle can use the spacious dimensions to their advantage. With the acquisition of Bedard, the Mariners have a viable 1-2 combo with him and Hernandez. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they finished 1-2 in strikeouts in the league. Behind them, there are 3 dependable starters in Washburn, Batista, and Silva. None of them will ever win 20 games or strike out 200 in a season, but they rarely get hurt, they keep their ERA under 5.00 and keep their team in the game. There's not much more to ask for in your 3-4-5 starters.

The questions lie on offense. Seattle's middle infield of Lopez and Betancourt has plenty of potential and plays great defense, but their offense disappoints. The Mariners also play a middle infielder at DH, Vidro. In the American League, there is very little room for error on the offensive end. Seattle is risking a lot by playing three so-so middle infielders, one at a premium offensive position like DH. They also have Wilkerson and Ibanez in the outfield corners, two players who may be better off platooning at this point in their careers. They're certainly good players to an extent, but an AL team needs more power out of those positions. A lot of the offensive load will depend on Beltre and a bounce-back year from Sexson. If that doesn't happen, the performance of newcomer Bedard will be ever more emphasized.

3. Oakland Athletics

Lineup
C- Kurt Suzuki
1B- Daric Barton
2B- Mark Ellis
SS- Bobby Crosby
3B- Eric Chavez
LF- Travis Buck
CF- Chris Denorfia
RF- Emil Brown
DH- Jack Cust
Bench- C- Rob Bowen; INF- Donnie Murphy, Jack Hannahan; OF- Ryan Sweeney, Dan Johnson

Pitchers
SP- Joe Blanton
SP- Rich Harden
SP- Chad Gaudin
SP- Justin Duchscherer
SP- Lenny DiNardo
CP- Huston Street
RP- Alan Embree
RP- Joey Devine
RP- Santiago Casilla
RP- Kiko Calero
RP- Andrew Brown
RP- Keith Foulke

Many people expect Oakland to finish in last place this year after trading away Dan Haren and Nick Swisher. However, there is still a lot of talent left on the roster, especially on offense. Daric Barton could be the 2008 Rookie of the Year if he continues to hit like he did in his '07 cup of coffee. In 72 at-bats, Barton hit .347/.429/.639 with a 10:11 K:BB ratio. His power may not stay at that level, but expect a terrific on-base % and a .300 average. Jack Cust has a chance for 40 HRs with a full season in the bigs. He may also strike out 200 times while doing so. If nothing else, it will be interesting to see what Chavez and Crosby can do when healthy. The pair could form a potent left-side duo on the infield, but neither can seem to stay intact.

The wild-card will be the A's starting pitching. After Mr. Consistency Joe Blanton, Oakland has a mishmash of pitchers. Harden is a Cy Young contender when healthy, but that only happened in 2004-5. Every year, Oakland hopes Harden can stay in the rotation long enough to help the team, but each time he disappoints. In years past, they've had the depth to account for his absence. Now, Oakland is much shallower in the rotation. Gaudin and DiNardo have only started one year each, while Duchscherer is moving into the rotation for the first time. While both DiNardo and Gaudin performed capably in 2007, I can't imagine both will replicate the success. Look for just one of these 3 to be a viable rotation member.

4. Texas Rangers

Lineup
C- Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B- Ben Broussard
2B- Ian Kinsler
SS- Michael Young
3B- Hank Blalock
LF- Marlon Byrd
CF- Josh Hamilton
RF- Milton Bradley
DH- Frank Catalanotto
Bench- C- Gerald Laird; INF- Chris Shelton, Ramon Vazquez; OF- Nelson Cruz, David Murphy

Pitchers
SP- Kevin Millwood
SP- Vicente Padilla
SP- Jason Jennings
SP- Brandon McCarthy
SP- Robinson Tejeda
CP- C.J. Wilson
RP- Joaquin Benoit
RP- Frank Francisco
RP- Kaz Fukumori
RP- Wes Littleton
RP- Eddie Guardado
RP- John Rheinecker

Think about some of the players that have come through Arlington since the Rangers last won a division title. Ivan Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Juan Gonzalez, Alfonso Soriano, and Adrian Gonzalez. The problem has been the pitching. Year in and year out, Texas has failed to find a solid rotation. It continues again in 2008. Millwood, Jennings, and Padilla are fine pitchers, but none of them are #1's. Texas has not had a true #1 starter since Kevin Brown in the early 90s. Much like Colorado has done for much of its history, Texas gets caught up in its offensive numbers. Playing in an extreme hitters park, the offensive stats tend to get skewed upward. This illusion gets overlooked when evaluating players, causing the Rangers to build around overrated hitters and completely overlooking pitching. They figure pitching is hard to come by anyway in Ameriquest Field, so why not just get more offense?

The offense in '08 will feature above-average hitters in Young, Kinsler, Blalock, and Hamilton. However, they are also counting on Saltalamacchia in his first full major league season. Byrd and Broussard have proven over the years that they are no better than backups. Frank the Cat used to be a good utility player who could fill in at multiple positions, but now at 34, he's become a full-time DH. No longer able to offer versatility, hie value is much lower and he doesn't have the bat to start at DH. Yet, here they are starting (Chris Shelton may platoon with Broussard). It simply won't be enough combined with the lackluster pitching.

NL East Preview

2008-03-13T16:05:00.002-04:00

The National League East is a very stratified division in 2008. There are two teams capable of winning the World Series in New York and Philadelphia. Atlanta sits in the middle with plenty of talent, but too many question marks. And Washington and Florida are mired in the bottom with too many holes to win more than 75 games. However, that doesn't mean the race between NY and Philly won't be exciting. Johan Santana pitching against the Phillies' trio of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins is enough for me. If the NL West beats itself up too much, the Wild Card will almost certainly come down to the runner-up of this division.

Predicted Order of Finish:
New York
Philadelphia
Atlanta
Washington
Florida

Best Positional Player: David Wright, New York
Best Pitcher: Johan Santana, New York
Best Rookie: Cameron Maybin, Florida

Divisional All-Star Team:
C- Brian McCann, Atlanta
1B- Ryan Howard, Philadelphia
2B- Chase Utley, Philadelphia
SS- Hanley Ramirez, Florida
3B- David Wright, New York
LF- Pat Burrell, Philadelphia
CF- Carlos Beltran, New York
RF- Jeff Francouer, Atlanta
SP- Johan Santana, New York
SP- John Smoltz, Atlanta
SP- Cole Hamels, Philadelphia
SP- Tim Hudson, Atlanta
SP- John Maine, New York
RP- Jon Rauch, Washington
RP- Taylor Tankersley, Florida
CP- Billy Wagner, New York
CP- Rafael Soriano, Atlanta

1. New York Mets

Lineup
C- Brian Schneider
1B- Carlos Delgado
2B- Luis Castillo
SS- Jose Reyes
3B- David Wright
LF- Moises Alou
CF- Carlos Beltran
RF- Ryan Church
Bench- C- Ramon Castro; INF- Damion Easley, Ruben Gotay; OF- Marlon Anderson, Endy Chavez

Pitchers
SP- Johan Santana
SP- John Maine
SP- Pedro Martinez
SP- Oliver Perez
SP- Orlando Hernandez
CP- Billy Wagner
RP- Aaron Heilman
RP- Duaner Sanchez
RP- Joe Smith
RP- Scott Schoeneweis
RP- Matt Wise
RP- Jorge Sosa

The Mets collapsed down the stretch in 2007, losing a 7-game division lead in 17 games. They return largely the same core in 2008, except for one major addition: Johan Santana. Adding the best pitcher in baseball without giving up any major league talent was a major coup. Since the core of this squad is built to win now, it was not a big deal to part with multiple prospects. They badly needed starting pitching and they got the prize of the offseason in Santana. He will now anchor a rotation along with John Maine. Maine will have to rebound from a poor second half in which his ERA jumped three runs. When healthy, Pedro Martinez is probably the team's second-best pitcher still, but he can't be counted on for more than six innings a start or more than 25 starts a season. The back end of the rotation is, like most major league rotations, inconsistent. Perez can be flat-out dominating when he's on, but, far too often, he is wild and homer-prone. El Duque is still around, even he once played with David Cone and Darryl Strawberry. Suffice to say, he isn't quite the weapon he used to be.

A major question on offense will be the Mets' corner outfielders. Ryan Church doesn't have the power to hold down a corner position, but he will be the starting right fielder. Alou will start in left, and while he still has the ability (he hit .341 in '07), he's only played 140 games twice this decade. New York needs a decent backup to guard against Church struggling or Alou getting hurt. Unfortunately, they traded Lastings Milledge and Carlos Gomez this off-season. The rest of the offense will produce enough to contend for a title, but an injury in the OF will severely test their depth.

2. Philadelphia Phillies

Lineup
C- Carlos Ruiz
1B- Ryan Howard
2B- Chase Utley
SS- Jimmy Rollins
3B- Pedro Feliz
LF- Pat Burrell
CF- Shane Victorino
RF- Geoff Jenkins
Bench- C- Chris Coste, INF- Wes Helms, Eric Bruntlett; OF- Jayson Werth, So Taguchi

Pitchers
SP- Cole Hamels
SP- Brett Myers
SP- Jamie Moyer
SP- Adam Eaton
SP- Kyle Kendrick
CP- Brad Lidge
RP- Ryan Madson
RP- Tom Gordon
RP- J.C. Romero
RP- Clay Condrey
RP- Chad Durbin
RP- Fabio Castro

The Phillies feature the last two MVPs in Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins. Chase Utley probably deserved higher consideration (he finished 8th in '07), but he missed a month to injury. Those three form a potent nucleus that utilizes the small dimensions at Citizens Bank Park to their advantage. Along with slugger Pat Burrell, the Phillies can outpower any team in baseball. They also have an incredibly versatile bench that allows manager Charlie Manuel to play matchups and substitute freely late in games. Werth and Taguchi can play all three OF positions, and Coste can probably play anywhere but pitcher.

Their pitching is loaded at the top with Myers and Hamels. The two young studs should combine for 30-35 wins behind that offense. Even though he's now pushing 46, Jamie Moyer continues to pile up league-average innings. The key for Philadelphia on the mound will be Kyle Kendrick. He went 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA at age 22 last season. Kendrick must avoid the sophomore slump to give the Phillies another starter.

The battle between New York and Philadelphia will likely come down to back ends of their rotations. We have old veterans trying to stave off age in Moyer, Martinez, and Hernandez. There's also a couple young arms like Kendrick and Perez trying to provide consistent innings. We know the top starters will get the job done. But whoever has the better 4-5 starters will win this division.

3. Atlanta Braves

Lineup
C- Brian McCann
1B- Mark Teixeira
2B- Kelly Johnson
SS- Yunel Escobar
3B- Chipper Jones
LF- Matt Diaz
CF- Mark Kotsay
RF- Jeff Francouer
Bench- C- Brayan Pena, INF- Scott Thorman, Omar Infante; OF- Josh Anderson, Brandon Jones

Pitchers
SP- John Smoltz
SP- Tim Hudson
SP- Tom Glavine
SP- Chuck James
SP- Mike Hampton
CP- Rafael Soriano
RP- Mike Gonzalez
RP- Peter Moylan
RP- Tyler Yates
RP- Manny Acosta
RP- Will Ohman
RP- Royce Ring

Seems like ages ago that Atlanta last won the NL East, doesn't it? In fact, it's only been two years and they may get back there in 2008. Their offense has never disappeared, finishing 2nd and 3rd the past two seasons. Surprisingly, it's been their once-vaunted pitching that has failed them. In 2006, they finished 10th in R/G in the NL. The Braves were actually 2nd in 2007, but that was largely skewed by the performances from Smoltz, Hudson, and the bullpen. The back of their rotation was absolutely horrendous, as Jo-Jo Reyes, Mark Redman, Buddy Carlyle, Lance Cormier, Anthony Lerew, and Kyle Davies all cycled through at one time or another. None of the six posted an ERA under 5.00. They have since signed Tom Glavine to man the #4 spot behind Chuck James. In the five hole, Atlanta will look to Mike Hampton. The former 20-game winner has missed two straight seasons and is unlikely to pitch like he once did. Waiting in the wings will be former Tiger Jair Jurrjens. Acquired for Edgar Renteria, Jurrjens fills the Braves' Curacaoan quota with Andruw Jones gone. He had a 4.70 ERA in Detroit last season, but needs to work on his control if he is to succeed in Atlanta in 2008. More than anything else, the health of the Braves' pitchers will determine Atlanta's fate. Smoltz and Glavine are over 40 and Hampton hasn't played in two years. Hudson has no injury history, so he may have to shoulder a big load if/when injury strikes.

Atlanta's offense stacks up quite well with those of the Mets and Phillies. In fact, those were 3 of the top 4 NL offenses in 2007. The only hole in the lineup will be CF. Kotsay is only here as a stopgap for future starter Jordan Schafer. But, if he is to be of value, he needs to right the decline he's been in the past three years. Back problems have been the issue and he claims to be healthier, but how he holds up over the summer will be a big test. Remember, he is replacing an all-time great in Andruw Jones and fans may not wait long to boo. Keep your eye on youngsters Brandon Jones, Josh Anderson, Gregor Blanco, or Schafer. Any one of them could step in should Kotsay fail to produce.

4. Washington Nationals

Lineup
C- Paul LoDuca
1B- Dmitri Young
2B- Ronnie Belliard
SS- Cristian Guzman
3B- Ryan Zimmerman
LF- Wily Mo Pena
CF- Lastings Milledge
RF- Austin Kearns
Bench- C- Jesus Flores; INF- Nick Johnson, Felipe Lopez, Aaron Boone; OF- Elijah Dukes, Rob Mackowiak

Pitchers
SP- Shawn Hill
SP- John Patterson
SP- Jason Bergmann
SP- John Lannan
SP- Matt Chico
CP- Chad Cordero
RP- Jon Rauch
RP- Saul Rivera
RP- Luis Ayala
RP- Jesus Colome
RP- Chris Schroder
RP- Joel Hanrahan

The Nationals finally find a permanent home in 2008 after years of nomadic travel. The former Expos played in front of empty seats in Montreal, called Puerto Rico home for half a season, and than moved to Washington where they played in a football stadium. Now in their own baseball-only park, the Nationals can finally create an identity for themselves. GM Jim Bowden has done a good job so far, hiring manager Manny Acta and acquiring good young talent in Pena, Milledge, and Dukes. Acta has proven to be an excellent manager after just one year. Dealt a rotation full of cast-offs and minor league veterans, Acta knew when to pull the hook, using his bullpen more than any other team in baseball. His pen rewarded him with quality outings time and again, especially Rauch and Rivera.

Washington surprised many in 2007 by winning 73 games. They could get to 80 this year if their bullpen continues to pitch well. With no real stars or pricey free agents in the mix, they still were successful, allowing Acta to pull his struggling starters before it was too late. After a year of development, pitchers like Hill and Chico should be able to go longer into games. Improved pitching will help offset what looks to be a shaky offense.

Beyond Ryan Zimmerman, there are no proven stars on this Nationals offense. LoDuca is a couple years past his prime, as is Guzman. Also, what can Da Meat Hook do after last year's All-Star comeback season? I doubt he can repeat it, but if he comes anywhere close, Washington will gladly take it. The key will be the young outfielders Pena, Milledge, and Dukes. All three have had attitude problems in the past, but Washington, with nothing to lose, gladly took a chance. Given the at-bats and a good bill of health, they could all hit 30 HRs. However, they could also struggle in a larger exposure or run into more trouble. If the former happens, the Nationals could be scary. At the very least, expect one of the three to pan out.

5. Florida Marlins

Lineup
C- Mike Rabelo
1B- Mike Jacobs
2B- Dan Uggla
SS- Hanley Ramirez
3B- Jorge Cantu
LF- Josh Willingham
CF- Cameron Maybin
RF- Jeremy Hermida
Bench- C- Matt Treanor, INF- Dallas McPherson, Jose Castillo; OF- Luis Gonzalez, Alfredo Amezaga

Pitchers
SP- Scott Olsen
SP- Sergio Mitre
SP- Andrew Miller
SP- Mark Hendrickson
SP- Rick Vanden Hurk
CP- Kevin Gregg
RP- Justin Miller
RP- Taylor Tankersley
RP- Matt Lindstrom
RP- Henry Owens
RP- Logan Kensing
RP- Renyel Pinto

There isn't a much sadder sight in baseball than the Florida Marlins. When a team wants to rebuild and have a fire sale, it usually involves getting rid of expensive veterans. Young players are then acquired to build the next great team around. Instead, Florida trades Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, both of whom are 26 and under. Granted, they received two great prospects in return (Miller and Maybin). But, it is simply asinine to give away one of the top 5 players in baseball at such a young age. Cabrera is someone to build a dynasty around. Yes, the Florida management had a problem with Cabrera's weight gain and work ethic. But, guess what, he could flat-out hit. There's no substitute for that.

As hard as Florida may try, they still have some quality hitters on this roster. Ramirez and Uggla form an incredibly potent middle infield. Uggla has 30 HR-power at the keystone, while Ramirez does everything but play defense at SS. In terms of offense alone, Ramirez was the best player in the NL in 2007. But, his defense was enough to drag him down to maybe #10 overall. Nevertheless, MVP voters blatantly ignored him because of his team's record, something I'll never understand. Also, keep your eye on Jeremy Hermida in 2008. He struggled mightily in his rookie year in 2006, but he bounced back big in 2007 with a .369 OBP/.501 SLG. Still only 24, he can spray the ball to all fields, racking up doubles and homers by the bushel.

Florida's offense can probably be above-average if eveything breaks right, but its starting pitching will bring the team into the cellar. Manager Joe Girardi killed Florida's young pitchers in 2006, hurting the arms of Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, and Scott Olsen all for a chance at .500. Now in the hands of Fredi Gonzalez, Marlins' starters are still trying to recover. Sanchez and Johnson may never be the same, or healthy, again. They're now using veterans like Mark Hendrickson as well as lower-tier prospects like Vanden Hurk and Mitre instead. Olsen, who has had his fair share of attitude problems and suspensions, will try to corral his emotions into his pitching. He and Miller have a chance at a solid 1-2 combo, but it may take until 2010 for that.

The bullpen will have to shoulder the load, but it's more than up to the task. A solid pen full of young hardthrowers, the Marlins may resort to starting a reliever just to skip the rotation altogether. Gregg, Lindstrom and Tankersley lead the way. Gregg is the nominal closer, but plenty of guys should get save chances here. The problem is that they will come few and far between.

NL Central Preview

2008-03-11T16:32:00.005-04:00

Today is the NL Central's turn. Baseball's largest division, it's also the weakest. Six teams compete, yet none can reach 90 wins. One would think that this would lead to more parity among the teams. Unfortunately, the Brewers, Reds, and Pirates have been stuck for years in the bottom half of the division. The Astros and Cardinals, and occasionally the Cubs, have dominated the playoff berths. Last year saw Milwaukee dramatically improve its squad behind solid youngsters Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. As we enter 2008, the old guard has fallen by the wayside. St. Louis and Houston are struggling to reload after losing their veterans that won so many games for them in the past decade. Milwaukee and Chicago are the frontrunners, with Cincinnati not far behind.

Predicted Order of Finish:
Milwaukee
Chicago
Cincinnati
St. Louis
Houston
Pittsburgh

Best Positional Player: Albert Pujols, St. Louis
Best Pitcher: Roy Oswalt, Houston
Best Rookie: Jay Bruce, Cincinnati

Divisional All-Star Team:
C- Geovany Soto, Chicago
1B- Albert Pujols, St. Louis
2B- Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati
SS- Miguel Tejada, Houston
3B- Aramis Ramirez, Chicago
LF- Alfonso Soriano, Chicago
CF- Jay Bruce, Cincinnati
RF- Corey Hary, Milwaukee
SP- Roy Oswalt, Houston
SP- Carlos Zambrano, Chicago
SP- Tom Gorzelanny, Pittsburgh
SP- Ben Sheets, Milwaukee
SP- Adam Wainwright, St. Louis
RP- Carlos Marmol, Chicago
RP- David Weathers, Cincinnati
CP- Jose Valverde, Houston
CP- Matt Capps, Pittsburgh

1. Milwaukee Brewers

Lineup
C- Jason Kendall
1B- Prince Fielder
2B- Rickie Weeks
SS- J.J. Hardy
3B- Bill Hall
LF- Ryan Braun
CF- Mike Cameron
RF- Corey Hart
Bench- C- Eric Munson; INF- Craig Counsell, Joe Dillon; OF- Tony Gwynn Jr., Gabe Kapler

Pitchers
SP- Ben Sheets
SP- Yovani Gallardo
SP- Jeff Suppan
SP- David Bush
SP- Manny Parra
CP- Eric Gagne
RP- Derrick Turnbow
RP- Brian Shouse
RP- Salomon Torres
RP- David Riske
RP- Guillermo Mota
RP- Claudio Vargas

Before 2007, Milwaukee last had a winning season in 1992. They were the frontrunners in the Central for much of the year. But, a mid-season swoon allowed Chicago to overtake them. The Brewers fought valiantly in August and September, but injuries and inconsistency in their starting pitching was too much to overcome.

Another problem with the '07 Brewers was their defense. Braun was downright terrible at third and Hall was only so-so in center. To fix the problem, Milwaukee signed defensive whiz Mike Cameron to play center. Then they moved Hall back to his original position in the infield and pushed Braun to an easier position in left. Every one of their starters is a threat to go deep except for catcher Kendall. Manager Ned Yost has already said he will hit Kendall 9th behind the pitcher. Kendall's one offensive strength is reaching base, so his ability to act as a "second leadoff man" could help Fielder and Braun hit with more runners on base.

With their offense so dominant, the Brewers pitching has a lot of room for error. However, their starting rotation isn't very deep. Bush and Suppan are merely serviceable inning-eater types. Sheets is one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy. But, he hasn't pitched a full season since 2004. The other two projected starters, Parra and Gallardo, are young pitchers with injury histories as well. If healthy, both can be top-of-the-rotation starters.

The Brew Crew bullpen is also heavily dependent on pitchers with injury histories. Gagne, Mota, and Torres have all experienced arm problems in the past two years and are on the wrong side of 30. Luckily, Milwaukee has a strong collection of young arms in AAA and the bench to provide support. Vargas, Carlos Villanueva, Zach Jackson, and Seth McClung could all step in and not miss a beat.

Milwaukee's offense is easily the best in the division. With just a little help from its pitching, the Brewers should make their first playoff appearance since the early 1980s.

2. Chicago Cubs

Lineup
C- Geovany Soto
1B- Derrek Lee
2B- Mark DeRosa
SS- Ryan Theriot
3B- Aramis Ramirez
LF- Alfonso Soriano
CF- Felix Pie
RF- Kosuke Fukudome
Bench- C- Henry Blanco; INF- Daryle Ward, Ronny Cedeno; OF- Matt Murton

Pitchers
SP- Carlos Zambrano
SP- Ted Lilly
SP- Rich Hill
SP- Jason Marquis
SP- Jon Lieber
CP- Ryan Dempster
RP- Bob Howry
RP- Carlos Marmol
RP- Kerry Wood
RP- Scott Eyre
RP- Michael Wuertz
RP- Kevin Hart

The Cubs concern me a bit. On the surface, they have the most superstars of the division. Guys like Soriano, Ramirez, Lee, Wood, and Zambrano are household names that other teams in the division don't have. Yet, even with all those people, the Cubs barely beat Milwaukee in 2007. And, I can't see the Cubs pitchers equalling what they did in '07. Marquis, Dempster, and Lilly are probably going to decline back to their past career standard.

Chicago also has some major holes on offense that Milwaukee doesn't. Theriot is overmatched at shortstop and should probably be on the bench. But, the Cubs don't have a better option because Cedeno has proven he can't handle a starting load either. Pie will be a great talent someday, but in 2008, he will be below-average. Lou Piniella may be quick to bench him in favor of a veteranc if the Cubs are in contention. The X-factor will be Fukudome. As Japanese players like Hideki Matsui and Kenji Johjima have shown, power decreases when coming across the Pacific. For Fukudome to be productive, he'll have show gap hitting and plate discipline. If he's a success, it could push Chicago past Milwaukee.

However, none of that will matter if the Cubs pitching doesn't perform. Zambrano declined slightly in 2007, as the wear and tear of pitching 200 innings/yr may be getting to him. Michigan alum Hill may turn out to be the Cubs' best pitcher in 2008 if he continues his yearly improvement. Behind those two are big question marks, though. Marquis cannot be counted on to be much more than average. Lilly had a career year last season, can he do it again? The fifth spot may go to Dempster, but it's been years since he started. And the whole reason he moved to the pen was because he couldn't hack it in the rotation anymore. Lieber is also attempting a comeback after missing most of the past two years with injuries. The bullpen is stellar, with Wuertz, Marmol, and Howry anchoring the late innings. But, if you can't get your starters to the seventh inning, what's the point in a good pen?

As many questions as I've risen, the Cubs are still a top-2 team in this division. They have a scary middle of the order and solid front-end pitching. That's more than enough to contend in the Central.

3. Cincinnati Reds

Lineup
C- Javier Valentin
1B- Joey Votto
2B- Brandon Phillips
SS- Alex Gonzalez
3B- Edwin Encarnacion
LF- Adam Dunn
CF- Jay Bruce
RF- Ken Griffey, Jr.
Bench- C- David Ross; INF- Scott Hatteberg, Jeff Keppinger; OF- Corey Patterson, Ryan Freel

Pitchers
SP- Aaron Harang
SP- Bronson Arroyo
SP- Josh Fogg
SP- Matt Belisle
SP- Homer Bailey
CP- Francisco Cordero
RP- David Weathers
RP- Todd Coffey
RP- Bill Bray
RP- Mike Stanton
RP- Jeremy Affeldt
RP- Jared Burton

The Reds have some of the best young talent in the division in Votto, Bruce, Bailey, and top pitching prospect Johnny Cueto. But, the veterans, especially the pitchers, surrounding them aren't quite good enough to lift the Reds above third place.

You really can't ask for much more power in an offense. Phillips, Griffey, Dunn, and Encarnacion are all capable of 30 HRs. Bruce and Votto have tremendous power as well, but in their rookie campaigns, I expect something closer to 20 HRs and a little more doubles. If Gonzalez and Valentin can be anywhere close to league-average, this squad will pile runs in bushels. The launching pad that is Great American Ballpark certainly helps that quest.

Where it helps the hitters, it hurts the pitchers. Harang is the only proven commodity in the rotation. One of the most underrated pitchers in baseball, Harang carried the Reds rotation last year. Bailey has a chance to be a #1 starter someday, but he's still harnessing his control at this point. Fogg, Arroyo, and Belisle are middle of the rotation starters at best.

The bullpen is more of the same story. They have two very good pitchers in Cordero and Weathers, but nothing of value behind them. The lack of pitching depth will ultimately derail the Reds against stronger teams. Fortunately, their offense is more than enough to carry them past what's left of the Astros and Cardinals.

4. St. Louis Cardinals

Lineup
C- Yadier Molina
1B- Albert Pujols
2B- Adam Kennedy
SS- Cesar Izturis
3B- Troy Glaus
LF- Chris Duncan
CF- Colby Rasmus
RF- Rick Ankiel
Bench- C- Jason LaRue; INF- Aaron Miles, Brendan Ryan; OF- Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker

Pitchers
SP- Adam Wainwright
SP- Braden Looper
SP- Joel Pineiro
SP- Matt Clement
SP- Anthony Reyes
CP- Jason Isringhausen
RP- Ryan Franklin
RP- Russ Springer
RP- Randy Flores
RP- Tyler Johnson
RP- Todd Wellemeyer
RP- Brad Thompson

It's not much of a stretch to say the Cardinals may soon look like the Giants of recent years. Pujols could find himself surrounded by a bunch of ragtag veterans and overrated rookies like Bonds became accustomed to. Their fluke (only 83 reg. season wins) World Series victory in 2006 has got the Cardinals thinking they're closer to contention than they really are.

Other than Pujols, the only other good offensive players are Glaus, Duncan, and Ankiel. And, Ankiel and Glaus are free swingers that should be easy to pitch around. Offensive sieves like Molina and Izturis await. Though, to be fair, Molina is the best defensive catcher in MLB.

But, when a team has pitching like the Cards do, they're going to need more than just great defense behind the plate. Former top pitchers Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder are both out until at least mid-season. Wainwright is the only good pitcher left in the rotation. The bullpen is solid and should make up for some of the starters' errors, but there are far too many question marks still. Pineiro and Reyes haven't built on early-career promise and Clement is recovering from a year off. I could go either way with St. Louis and Houston, but I think the Cardinals superior bullpen gets the edge.

5. Houston Astros

Lineup
C- J.R. Towles
1B- Lance Berkman
2B- Kaz Matsui
SS- Miguel Tejada
3B- Ty Wigginton
LF- Carlos Lee
CF- Michael Bourn
RF- Hunter Pence
Bench- C- Brad Ausmus; INF- Geoff Blum, Mark Loretta; OF- Darin Erstad

Pitchers
SP- Roy Oswalt
SP- Woody Williams
SP- Wandy Rodriguez
SP- Brandon Backe
SP- Shawn Chacon
CP- Jose Valverde
RP- Oscar Villarreal
RP- Doug Brocail
RP- Chad Paronto
RP- Chris Sampson
RP- Dave Borkowski
RP- Geoff Geary

The Craig Biggio era finally ended in Houston, probably three years too late. But, as the Astros move on in 2008, they are a team without a true identity. Their offense should be respectable with Lee, Berkman, and Pence carrying the squad. Unfortunately, Tejada is being counted on as a superstar still. After all, they did trade five players for him. But, he has been declining the past three years and is not the player he once was. His offense will still be much better than his predecessor, Adam Everett, but his range has been severely hampered. Beyond that, though, Houston will be starting Matsui, Bourn, and Wigginton. None of them have proven to be major league starters - only Coors Field saved Matsui from another below-average year.

Valverde saved 47 games in 2007 for Arizona, but he won't come anywhere close to that in Houston. It's not that he'll decline, in fact, he's likely to improve. But, with only one quality starter, Oswalt, and no viable setup man, Valverde will struggle for save chances. The Astros have to hope for a big leap from third-year starter Rodriguez, because the other starters are aging and unlikely to pitch well in tiny Minute Maid Park.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Lineup
C- Ronny Paulino
1B- Adam LaRoche
2B- Freddy Sanchez
SS- Jack Wilson
3B- Jose Bautista
LF- Jason Bay
CF- Nate McLouth
RF- Xavier Nady
Bench- C- Ryan Doumit; INF- Chris Gomez, Josh Wilson; OF- Steven Pearce, Chris Duffy

Pitchers
SP- Tom Gorzelanny
SP- Ian Snell
SP- Zach Duke
SP- Paul Maholm
SP- Matt Morris
CP- Matt Capps
RP- Damaso Marte
RP- Byung-Hyun Kim
RP- John Grabow
RP- Jonah Bayliss
RP- Juan Perez
RP- Franquelis Osoria

Much like the Giants, the Pirates will be a bad team with a great rotation. Young pitchers Gorzelanny, Snell, Duke, and Maholm are all capable of winning 12-15 games. Gorzelanny and Snell are the best of the bunch and could win a Cy Young or two in a few years. Unfortunately, voters value wins too much for consideration in 2008. The pitchers simply won't receive the run support needed to win that many games. But, boy will those ERAs look pretty.

For the Pirates to reach respectability, they need a bounceback year from star Jason Bay. He was an All-Star his first two years, but he slumped badly in 2007. Was this because of the frustration of playing Pittsburgh or was this a sign of things to come? I hope for Pirates fans, it's the former. There is little in the way of star talent on offense, just plenty of decent players who would make great bench players on contending teams. Watch for rookie Steven Pearce though. If he can find playing time in the OF corners or at 1B, he could make an impact.

NL West Preview

2008-03-10T16:43:00.006-04:00

Major League Baseball opens regular-season play March 25 in Japan as Boston takes on Oakland. Over the next two weeks, I am going to preview the respective divisions, taking a team-by-team look. In between, I'll be analyzing the NCAA Tournament as well. Today, I'll be starting off with the National League West.

2007 was a highly competitive year in the NL West, as the top 3 teams were separated by just 1.5 games. In fact, both Colorado and Arizona made the playoffs, with the Rockies advancing to the World Series. Third-place San Diego lost to Colorado in Game 163 on a dramatic late-game run by Matt Holliday. 2008 will likely be just as tight. San Francisco seems to be the only team without a chance at the division crown.

Predicted Order of Finish:
Arizona
Colorado
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco

Best Positional Player: Matt Holliday, Colorado
Best Pitcher: Jake Peavy, San Diego
Best Rookie: Chase Headley, San Diego

Divisional All-Star Team:
C- Russell Martin, Los Angeles
1B- Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego
2B- Jeff Kent, Los Angeles
SS- Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado
3B- Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego
LF- Eric Byrnes, Arizona
CF- Andruw Jones, Los Angeles
RF- Matt Holliday, Colorado
SP- Brandon Webb, Arizona
SP- Jake Peavy, San Diego
SP- Chris Young, San Diego
SP- Matt Cain, San Francisco
SP- Brad Penny, Los Angeles
RP- Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles
RP- Heath Bell, San Diego
CP- Takashi Saito, Los Angeles
CP- Manny Corpas, Colorado

1. Arizona Diamondbacks

Lineup
C- Miguel Montero
1B- Conor Jackson
2B- Orlando Hudson
SS- Stephen Drew
3B- Chad Tracy
LF- Eric Byrnes
CF- Chris Young
RF- Justin Upton
Bench- C- Chris Snyder; INF- Augie Ojeda, Mark Reynolds, Chris Burke; OF- Jeff Salazar

Pitchers
SP- Brandon Webb
SP- Dan Haren
SP- Randy Johnson
SP- Doug Davis
SP- Micah Owings
CP- Tony Pena
RP- Brandon Lyon
RP- Doug Slaten
RP- Juan Cruz
RP- Chad Qualls
RP- Brandon Medders
RP- Yusmeiro Petit

In 2007, Arizona was actually outscored by its opponents. Yet, it still won 90 games and made the playoffs. Most times, I would call for a setback the next year as the team's luck will inevitably run out. Historically, teams that are outscored typically have losing records. Those that don't experience a regression to the mean in the next year. However, these D'Backs are a different story. They were a very young team last year, regularly starting five players 25 and younger. Those players experienced the usual setbacks and slumps that young players go through. With guys like Upton, Drew, Young, and Montero having gone through a major league campaign, I expect big improvements in their games. Young has already shown a 30-30 skill set, but he needs to improve his plate discipline. Drew may never be the all-around talent that is brother J.D. is (when healthy), but if he can hit 20 HRs a year at SS and improve his shaky defense, he and Gold Glover Hudson will be a force up the middle. That development will allow the D'Backs to improve their run-scoring.

I do worry where their power will come from. The only player with 30-homer potential seems to be Young. Everyone else is stuck in the 15-25 range. The major power positions of 3B, 1B, LF, and RF are weak compared to other teams. Jackson and Tracy are decent players who hit for a good average and double power, but their HR totals leave something to be desired. Last year, manager Bob Melvin could call on Tony Clark off the bench for that power. This year, Clark is in San Diego, and Melvin only has a couple utility infielder-types on the pine. The X-factor could be Upton. Debuting at 19 in 2007, Upton did about as well as could be expected. With a full season to play in 2008, Upton could very well do what his brother B.J. did in Tampa and showcase an all-around power/speed game.

Their pitching is easily the team's strength. Haren and Webb are one of the game's top 1-2 combos. Davis is a solid innings-eater, consistently producing 4.00 ERAs and 10-15 wins. Owings is their best young pitcher, who is also the game's best hitting pitcher. So much so that Melvin will likely bat him 7th or 8th when he pitches. Of course, Johnson is also back at age 44. His health will be carefully monitored throughout the year. How many starts he gives the D'Backs could be the key to where they finish in the standings.

In the pen, the D'Backs lost closer Jose Valverde to the Astros, but it shouldn't affect them much. They had one of the most talented relief cores in baseball in 2007, featuring quality middle relief from Cruz, Pena, and Slaten. Pena will likely be the closer this season, but he'll get plenty of help from Lyon and Qualls. Frankly, if this team doesn't lead, or at least finish in the top 5, in the NL in ERA, I'll be surprised.

2. Colorado Rockies

Lineup
C- Chris Iannetta
1B- Todd Helton
2B- Jayson Nix
SS- Troy Tulowitzki
3B- Garrett Atkins
LF- Brad Hawpe
CF- Willy Taveras
RF- Matt Holliday
Bench- C- Yorvit Torrealba; INF- Clint Barmes; OF- Cory Sullivan, Jeff Baker, Ryan Spilborghs

Pitchers
SP- Jeff Francis
SP- Aaron Cook
SP- Ubaldo Jimenez
SP- Jason Hirsh
SP- Franklin Morales
CP- Manny Corpas
RP- Brian Fuentes
RP- Ryan Speier
RP- Matt Herges
RP- Luis Vizcaino
RP- Taylor Buchholz
RP- Kip Wells

To many, the Colorado Rockies seemed to come out of nowhere in 2007. Years of last-place finishes and losing records will do that to a fanbase. However, while no one was watching, GM Dan O'Dowd quietly put together a pretty talented ballclub. They aren't quite as young people assume them to be. Most of their top players, like Holliday, Atkins, and Hawpe are in their late 20s. They just got a late start on their careers, forcing them to debut a little later than normal. Those 3 are all in the primes of their careers and should be counted on for pretty similar production in 2008. I also expect a monster year from Tulowitzki. We just saw the tip of the iceberg last season, when he finished second to Milwaukee's Ryan Braun for Rookie of the Year. Tulowitzki's defense is already All-Star-worthy and his offense is on its way there. While Helton is on the downside of his career, he is still a viable on-base machine in the lineup. His ability to hit doubles in his sleep is perfect for the spacious outfield at Coors.

The big question marks for the Rockies will be at catcher, second, and center. Torrealba started most of 2007 behind the plate, but he really shouldn't be playing that much. His big postseason may give him undue attention, as the rest of his season, and his career, have shown little else. Iannetta struggled to find a rhythm in his rookie campaign, but if he can find his stroke, he's capable of 20-25 HRs. Taveras is the CF, and a worthy one at that on defense. But, his offense is almost nonexistent, especially as the team's leadoff man. I'd like to see better plate discipline out of him, but with the power surrounding him, his defense may be able to carry his bat. The Rockies let Kaz Matsui go in free agency, leaving a hole at second. It was certainly a good decision as Matsui's career year was a fluke, largely driven by Coors' thin air. But, now Colorado will depend on youngster Jayson Nix at the keystone. If he can give them solid defense, that should suffice. Any offensive success would be surprising, but welcomed.

Pitching in Colorado is always a major question mark. But, last year's Rockies staff was the best in its brief history. The Rockies have done a solid job building a staff around their youngsters. Francis, Morales, Corpas, and Jimenez are 27 and younger, each major building blocks for the team. Surrounding those four are a mixture of cheap veterans. Guys like Cook, Fuentes, Speier, and Herges are not exactly household names, but they have gotten the job done in a stadium that is unforgiving to pitchers.

Even though Colorado seems to have more established talent on offense than Arizona, I see the D'Backs pitching and the potential of their younger players outlasting the Rockies in the end. It's also just too hard to count on two consecutive good years out of Rockie pitching.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

Lineup
C- Russell Martin
1B- James Loney
2B- Jeff Kent
SS- Rafael Furcal
3B- Nomar Garciaparra
LF- Juan Pierre
CF- Andruw Jones
RF- Matt Kemp
Bench- C- Gary Bennett; INF- Mark Sweeney, Tony Abreu; OF- Andre Ethier, Jason Repko

Pitchers
SP- Brad Penny
SP- Derek Lowe
SP- Chad Billingsley
SP- Jason Schmidt
SP- Hiroki Kuroda
CP- Takashi Saito
RP- Jonathan Broxton
RP- Yhency Brazoban
RP- Scott Proctor
RP- Rudy Seanez
RP- Joe Beimel
RP- Esteban Loaiza

I love the makeup of the Dodgers, except for two players: Juan Pierre and Nomar Garciaparra. Pierre is not a player who should be starting in the major leagues. He offers no power, no on-base ability, and his contract is much too large for his value. The Dodgers should have simply got rid of him after signing Jones. However, they moved him to LF, where he now blocks a much better (and younger and cheaper...) player in Andre Ethier. Garciaparra, after numerous injuries have sapped his strength and range, is a shell of his former self. He'll be starting at 3B, blocking Andy LaRoche. While LaRoche is injured for 8-10 weeks, Nomar was still penciled in as the starter before the injury. The Dodgers have so many other great players like Furcal, Martin, Kent, and Jones that it is odd for them to start two deadweights in Pierre and Nomar. It'd be one thing if they had no other options. But, to have two young players who can do a much better job sitting the bench is just ludicrous.

The top of their pitching staff is solid, but the back end of the rotation and bullpen have injury questions. Schmidt, Brazoban, Seanez, and Proctor all have had injury problems recently and shouldn't be depended on too heavily. Luckily, the Dodgers have multiple starters waiting in the wings in case Schmidt or Japanese import Kuroda falter. Guys like Loaiza, Hong-Chih Kuo, or 20-year-old phenom Clayton Kershaw are more than capable replacements.

4. San Diego Padres

Lineup
C- Josh Bard
1B- Adrian Gonzalez
2B- Tadahito Iguchi
SS- Khalil Greene
3B- Kevin Kouzmanoff
LF- Scott Hairston
CF- Jim Edmonds
RF- Brian Giles
Bench- C- Michael Barrett; INF- Tony Clark, Oscar Robles; OF- Chase Headley

Pitchers
SP- Jake Peavy
SP- Chris Young
SP- Greg Maddux
SP- Randy Wolf
SP- Mark Prior
CP- Trevor Hoffman
RP- Heath Bell
RP- Cla Meredith
RP- Kevin Cameron
RP- Joe Thatcher
RP- Clay Hensley
RP- Justin Germano

The Padres probably have the worst outfield of any playoff contender this year. Edmonds and Giles are past their primes and Hairston has never been a full-time starter in his five seasons. Their bench consists of Chase Headley, who has posted terrific minor league numbers at third base, but has yet to play in the majors, let alone a major league OF. In fact, Edmonds is already hurt, and the team may be forced to play Jody Gerut or Jeff DaVanon, two men who haven't played full-time in three years. It's sad that this team can't find a decent OF because it's pitching is so strong. Peavy, Young, and Maddux don't need many runs to allow them to win, but if the Padre offense doesn't contribute anything, those great pitching performances will go to waste. Right now, Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff are the only legitimate power sources in the lineup. Greene can get hot for a bit, and Iguchi is a solid on-base guy, but they don't strike fear in any pitchers. There's not that one hitter who needs to be pitched around. When it comes down to a clutch situation, it'd be nice to have a hitter that can go deep.

The Padres pitching will be asked to carry a heavy load in 2008. We all know what Peavy, Young, and Maddux are capable of. Maddux has 4 Cy Youngs and just continues to throw strikes at age 42. Young, the 6'10" former basketball player from Princeton, uses his height well as he's blossomed the past two years. Peavy may very well win another two or three CYs before it's all said and done. The bullpen is led by career saves leader Hoffman, who is also over 40. Surrounding him are a cast of no-namers, but they got the job done in 2007. Most times, that's how you build a good pen. The expensive big names are usually overrated and not worth the cost. The Padres picked up Cameron, Bell, and Meredith off the Rule 5 Draft and a minor trade, respectively. If the Padres are to contend in 2008, the pitching will have to continue to be lights-out. Especially with Petco Park being a pitchers' haven, San Diego has to take advantage. Unless the Padres pull off a major trade, their offense will be weak.

5. San Francisco Giants

Lineup
C- Bengie Molina
1B- Dan Ortmeier
2B- Ray Durham
SS- Omar Vizquel
3B- Rich Aurilia
LF- Dave Roberts
CF- Aaron Rowand
RF- Randy Winn
Bench- C- Guillermo Rodriguez; INF- Kevin Frandsen, Eugenio Velez; OF- Fred Lewis, Rajai Davis

Pitchers
SP- Matt Cain
SP- Tim Lincecum
SP- Barry Zito
SP- Noah Lowry
SP- Jonathan Sanchez
CP- Brian Wilson
RP- Brad Hennessey
RP- Kevin Correia
RP- Vinnie Chulk
RP- Tyler Walker
RP- Steve Kline
RP- Jack Taschner

Ladies and gentlemen, the worst team in baseball in 2008. Look again at that offense. It's absolutely dreadful. This team was last place WITH Barry Bonds. Take away one of the best players in the game, and what's left? Yes, they added Aaron Rowand, but he's 31 and unlikely to match his career year from last season. They continue to employ Vizquel, Durham, and Aurilia as starting infielders even though they've proven over the last two years that none of them are worthy of that much playing time. Winn and Roberts are two light-hitting, aging CFs masking as corner outfielders. As bad as San Fran is, they really need to give up on the older players and play the rookies. Their push to get Bonds into the playoffs one more time is over, so why continue to play the washed-up veterans? Sadly, the rookies on the bench aren't exactly overflowing with potential. But, still, why not play them at 1/10 of the cost and see what you have? You got nothing to lose because you're going to be last anyway in this competitive division.

The lone bright spot is the Giants' young pitching. Cain and Lincecum are already better than pricey signee Zito. The two young starters could win 20 games each, but with the Giants' wretched offense, they'll have to settle for a 8-13 record and a 3.00 ERA. The Big Z is no better than a #3 starter, yet he's being paid as a #1. Still, he's good for a ERA in the high 3's, low 4's. The Giants are also deep with young arms in the pen. Wilson and Correia are a solid bullpen duo, while Correia can also spot start when needed. If pitching was the entire game, the Giants could win the division. Unfortunately, you have to play offense, too.

Longtime Detroit coach resigns

2008-03-07T16:56:00.002-05:00

After 15 years as the head coach at Detroit, Perry Watson resigned Wednesday. Already out since January 7 with an undisclosed illness, Watson made his absence permanent this week. A quiet resignation does not seem fitting considering the many years of success he had for the Titans.

With a 258-185 record and 3 conference championships, Watson leaves with plenty of accolades. He presided over terrific college players like Jermaine Jackson, Rashad Phillips, and Willie Green. Watson had a school-record four consecutive 20-win seasons from 1998-2001, including 25 in '98 and '99. Those two seasons also produced NCAA Tournament upsets of St. John's and UCLA. He followed that up with NIT appearances in '01 and '02.

Before his time at Detroit, Watson led Detroit Southwestern to over 300 wins and assisted Steve Fisher for the Fab Five years at Michigan. Obviously, that record speaks for itself in terms of successes and achievements. He's been a landmark in the Detroit basketball scene for the last quarter century. However, he is not without controversy.

For years at Detroit Southwestern, Watson was accused of recruiting, a practice that is illegal at public high schools. Nothing was ever proven, so we can't be sure if Watson did or did not. It just strikes me as surprising that one Detroit Public School League school could dominate an entire decade. Before the many closings, there were many more schools in the league than now, giving Watson more competition. Yet, for years, his teams were at or near the top. When he left the high school ranks to join Steve Fisher's staff at U of M in 1991, the whispers should have faded. After all, how often does an assistant coach get noticed? And, for awhile, they did. But, when Ed Martin's name and was brought up in the late 1990s, Watson's name surfaced right alongside. Watson was alleged to have known Martin throughout his time at Southwestern. Was it not a coincidence that Watson was hired at U of M the same year that his player Jalen Rose was beginning his freshman year? Something just seemed amiss about the way that was handled. Think about it. A longtime Detroit high school coach is hired as an assistant for Michigan. Coming in with that recruiting class are the city's two biggest young stars in Rose and Chris Webber. Granted, Michigan was only two years removed from a National Title and was bringing in much better players back then. But, I find it hard to imagine no rules being broken with Watson's hire and the subsequent involvement of Martin.

During Watson's time at U of D, there was little talk of recruiting violations. But really, there isn't quite the eye on Horizon League recruiting that there is in the Big 10. For his first 10 years, Watson continued his run of success. Postseason appearances, conference titles, coach of the year awards, NCAA tourney upsets, NBA players, everything a small low-major school could hope for, Watson accomplished.

Something happened though after 2002. Following his fourth postseason appearance with the Titans, Watson and Detroit fell from the top of the Mid-Continent Conference (now known as the Horizon League). 2002 was the Titans' first season under 20 wins in four years and Watson's dominance at Detroit was beginning to wane. From 2003-2007, Watson managed just a 48-74 record. Why the drastic fall-off? Detroit was a major power in its conference for almost a decade. It produced NBA players like Jermaine Jackson and Willie Green. For a low-major to have two NBA players is quite a feat. But, no one has come close recently. One case, in particular, is Brandon Cotton. One of the top players in the city, Cotton signed with Michigan St. originally, but transferred after getting hurt and receiving little playing time upon his return. At U of D, Cotton was a consistent 18-per-game scorer for three years, but he was mysteriously kicked off the team this fall. Nothing has ever been confirmed on the situation, from either Cotton or Watson. His leading scorer gone, Watson left the team in Jan. on his own mysterious leave of absence.

This strange season has epitomized what has happened to the program recently. As other teams like Butler, the Wisconsin schools, and new conference member Valparaiso have leapfrogged Detroit, the Titans have fallen on hard times. Detroit has always depended on bringing local guys who may have fallen below the MAC and Big 10 radar. However, recently it's been their inability to bring in players from outside the city that has hampered their growth. College basketball has expanded greatly even since 1993 when Watson began at Detroit. The Titans are operating as a low-major in a mid-major league. Butler and Valparaiso bring in recruits from other states and countries, supplementing their local guys. Watson used to be one of the best recruiters in the area because of his connections and roots in the city. But, the last four years have not been kind to his reputation. The players have stopped coming to the program, and it's been ugly for the basketball team.

Pistons-Celtics & Other NBA Thoughts

2008-03-06T16:56:00.002-05:00

The Pistons never seem to make it easy on themselves, do they? There just has to be this "we're underrated, no one respects us" mantra before they can win something. When they are highly ranked and expected to roll over the competition, they tend to take teams lightly. Complacency has been a major vice for Detroit ever since their 2004 title. Complete performances, when they play all four quarters well, are here and there. Even when they are 44-17 like this year, there is an underlying sense that could be better. A poor first quarter like the one against Seattle Tuesday will come out of nowhere. Or a stretch like the Orlando-Milwaukee back-to-back after the All-Star break. Last night, that inconsistent Pistons squad showed up once again for Boston.

If there is one Eastern Conference team not to take lightly, it's the Celtics. A poor quarter is tough to overcome because of Boston's troika of superstars. Any one of Pierce, Garnett, or Allen can score 20 points in a quarter like it's nothing. Unfortunately, the Pistons had two ugly performances in both the first and the fourth, scoring 13 and 11 points, respectively. That was ultimately too much to overcome. We shot just 36% for the game, and only 39% overall against Boston this year.

Granted, our shooting struggles may have been overlooked had we rebounded some of those misses. We lost the board edge 50-38 last night and 45-36 rpg over the series. With Garnett playing more at the top of the key, Wallace has to step away from the basket to guard him. That leaves the rebounding duties solely to McDyess and it looks like he can't handle it himself. Kendrick Perkins is averaging almost 12 rebounds a game against Detroit this season. Read that again. Kendrick Perkins, c'mon. That's double his season average. In Boston's other win, Glen Davis had 20 points on 8-10. Flip Saunders must make a defensive adjustment to solve this problem. Whether we need Maxiell, Johnson, or even Ratliff more on defense, we can't let Boston's secondary big men beat us. The Big 3 of Boston are going to get their points one way or another. But, to let Rondo, Perkins, or Big Baby beat us, it's unacceptable.

A wish for the upcoming playoffs: Please let LeBron and the Cavs stay in the 4 spot. If we stay in the 2 slot, we would face the winner of the 3-6 matchup in the second round. Orlando would currently be the third seed and we have owned them recently in the playoffs. Yes, we split the season series, each team stealing a road win, but the Magic doesn't have a player that can take over a game like LeBron can. Keeping LeBron in the 4 seed would have him face Boston in the second round. Basically, any way we can avoid playing Boston's Big 3 or Cleveland's Big 1 until the conference finals is a plus. Too often in past years, the Pistons have worn themselves out with long series in early rounds.

How's that Shaq trade looking now for Phoenix? A 3-5 mark with Shaq has dropped Phoenix to the 6th seed in the West. While Shaq has certainly played well enough (10.0 ppg, 11.3 rpg), the Suns have struggled to win without Shawn Marion's underrated defense and wing scoring.
How about the MVP race right now? LeBron puts up 50, 10 asts, and 8 rbs against NY last night. Chris Paul goes for 23 and 18 dimes against the Hawks. Kobe had 52 and 11 rbs Sunday against Dallas.
The race for the #1 overall pick in the Draft looks to be coming down to Miami, Memphis, Minnesota, and Seattle. The consensus seems to be that PF Michael Beasley and PG Derrick Rose are the top two players. Memphis is the only team that would obviously go big because of their Conley selection last year. The other 3 could conceivably go either way. Still, it doesn't have nearly the drama that Durant v. Oden had in 2007.

Brett Favre Retires

2008-03-04T18:24:00.000-05:00

Perhaps the most exciting player of the last 20 years, Brett Favre, hung up his cleats today. A 7-time Pro Bowler, Favre played 16 years in the NFL, all but one with the Green Bay Packers. He retires with the most TD passes, yards, completions, and attempts. However, he is also first in interceptions and third in fumbles.

Much like Cy Young, who retired with both the most wins and the most losses, Favre's more dubious records can be chalked up to longevity rather than ineptitude. His gun-slinging style may have produced the occasional turnover, but it also led the Packers in years when their running game or defense failed to produce. In fact, in Favre's 15 years with the Packers, his offense finished out of the top 10 only 4 times. The defense did so 9 times.

The weather in Green Bay was frequently bitter and unforgiving. Yet, there was Favre, starting every game for almost 15 years. He had a down year here and there (a QB Rating under 80 only 5 times), but his dependability and constant ability to win a game by himself was immeasurable. Between 1970 (Bart Starr's final season) and 1992 (Favre's first), Green Bay had only 3 winning seasons! This was a franchise that had become stale and boring. Their presence on the outlier of the American Midwest led to harsh weather and small revenue. Favre's arrival, along with the signing of Reggie White, boosted the Packers back into relevance. Fifteen years later, the Packers are next to only the Dallas Cowboys as America's Team.

As great as Favre as been for the city of Green Bay and its Packers, where does he rank among all NFL QBs? Purely statistically speaking, Favre is number one until Peyton Manning retires. And barring injury, there is no debate as to whether Manning will pass Favre. In 10 years, Manning has never thrown for below 3700 yards or 25 TDs in a season. When I rank my top QBs, I'm looking for guys who were consistently atop the leaderboards and won championships. Since the NFL passing game has changed so drastically, completion percentages have skyrocketed and INT totals have gone down. Teams now pass much more often, so I have to compare QBs to how they fared against their own competition. Going era-by-era, I'd say these are my top quarterbacks (in no particular order):

Sammy Baugh - best QB of 1940s, 2 NFL championships, excellent comp. % for his time
Sid Luckman - 3 NFL championships
Otto Graham - best QB of 1950s, 3 NFL championships, 4 AAFC championships
Johnny Unitas - 1 Super Bowl win, 2 NFL championships
Bart Starr - best QB of 1960s, 2 Super Bowl wins, 3 NFL championships, Montana of the 1960s
Len Dawson - one of most underrated QBs ever, 1 Super Bowl win, led in QB rating 6 times (tied with Young)
Roger Staubach - best QB of the 1970s, only 14 games started in his 20s, still won 2 Super Bowls
Joe Montana - best QB of the 1980s, simply a winner, 4 Super Bowl wins, kept S. Young on bench for four years
Dan Marino - never won the big one, great stat-wise
Steve Young - best QB of the 1990s, all-time leader in QB rating, 1 Super Bowl win
John Elway - 2 Super Bowl wins
Peyton Manning - 1 Super Bowl win, future record holder
Tom Brady - best QB of the 2000s, 3 Super Bowl wins, winner in Montana mold
Brett Favre - 1 Super Bowl win, multiple record-holder

Looking at these men, it's incredibly difficult to choose just the best. Starr and Montana won the most, but statistically men like Dawson and Young had better peaks and Manning and Favre had better sustained greatness. There's also the question of whether Montana and Starr benefited from the best supporting casts of their times. Ultimately, I have to choose Montana based on his 4 Super Bowl victories in only 11 years. But, it won't be long before Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are at the top. Favre's current legacy is almost more folk hero than NFL star. Fans conveniently ignore his penchant for making mistakes at the worst times. When you consider he only won 1 Super Bowl, remember how he collapsed in the second half of the NFC Title game this year. In one of his best years, he still managed to throw away the Packers' chances on their homefield with boneheaded passes. To me, that's not the best of all-time.

I want to know from the readers who the best ever is? Did I miss anyone? Is there someone on this list who shouldn't be?

Weekend Thoughts

2008-03-01T11:28:00.000-05:00

The Shaun Rogers era is officially over in Detroit. Even though talent-wise he was the Lions' best player, his work ethic and attitude towards management never stood up. Forced to get rid of him, Detroit was still able to get great value.
Rumored to be getting Jonathan Vilma earlier this week, then Domonique Foxworth, news came yesterday that Rogers was going to Cincinnati for two picks. With the trade nearly complete, the league didn't sign off because of wording in the agreement. Miraculously, Matt Millen actually got a better deal from Cleveland. Rogers is now officially going to the Browns for CB Leigh Bodden and a 3rd-rd pick. Considering Millen's draft history, I am quite thankful that we got Bodden instead of another pick. The last thing the Lions need is another draft pick to waste.

Leigh Bodden is not known by most people outside Cleveland, but the small-school standout from Duquesne is one of the best cover corners in the NFL. Twice the player that either Fernando Bryant or Travis Fisher is, Bodden had six interceptions and 88 tackles last season. He's been injury-prone, but he did play all 16 games in 2007. Only 26, Bodden immediately becomes our best defensive player. With him and Ernie Sims anchoring our D, we're off to a good start.

One of our biggest weaknesses a week ago, our secondary is now pretty strong. With Gerald Alexander, Dwight Smith, and Bodden we have three very talented backs. Now, we just have to fill the other corner slot. That will come in the form of our first-round draft pick, possibly Aqib Talib from Kansas.

In other Detroit news, the Pistons have brought back Theo Ratliff. The role of the 5th big man has been a pretty popular position among the fans. Elden Campbell and Dale Davis have previously served at the end of the bench. It used to require size and girth because of Shaq's presence in the East. Now, with Shaq out west, Detroit can afford to bring him someone with a little more athleticism and speed.

While many thought Detroit would simply bring back Davis again, I love Ratliff's addition much more. Davis has been sitting out all year, but claims to be ready to play. Ratliff, meanwhile has been with Minnesota so we know he's in game shape. Hurt much of the year, Ratliff is now healthy and playing well. He's shooting 51% and blocking 2 shots a game. I'm confident he can come in and defend when counted upon.

Lions off to good start

2008-02-28T16:21:00.000-05:00

Short post today, as I have to get off to Chelsea for a hockey game. But, I just wanted to point out that the Lions are already off to a great start in free agency. They've signed FA safety Dwight Smith and have re-signed CB Keith Smith. The free agent signing of Smith seems to indicate Kenoy Kennedy's sure departure from Detroit. D. Smith is a year younger than Kennedy and better in coverage. Our safety tandem now seems set with D. Smith at FS and Gerald Alexander on the strong side. Re-signing K. Smith was also a good move. While not quite a starter yet, he has the ability to play solidly in our nickel and dime packages as well as special teams. We certainly need the depth. Someone like Keith Smith, who is still young and already knows the system, is a plus signing.

Regarding the Shaun Rogers situation: there's no way a trade doesn't go through in the next month. His name is all over the trade winds. Denver, Jacksonville, and the NY Jets, are the teams most mentioned so far. The Jets might be packaging LB Jonathan Vilma and a draft pick in a trade. The Jaguars are rumored to be shopping a DT of their own in Marcus Stroud. Both players have struggled recently. Vilma is a 25-year-old ILB who would be a much better option than signing Al Wilson. However, he was hurt half of last year and had problems adjusting to a 3-4 defense. In Detroit, he would be back in the 4-3, so a return to an All-Pro level is possible. Stroud is a 29-year-old DT who saw his stats decline for three years. He has also missed 12 games the past two years. Given the choice, I would take Vilma and the pick (the Jets will throw in a pick because Vilma's contract only runs through 2008). In any case, I am impressed at the Lions' aggressiveness thus far. They aren't willing to simply discard Rogers. If they can get another Pro Bowl-caliber player in return, I would be very happy. Of course, with Matt Millen in charge, anything is possible.

The Tigers as seen through Baseball Prospectus 2008

2008-02-27T17:24:00.000-05:00

I received my copy of Baseball Prospectus 2008 in the mail yesterday. For those of you who don't know, BP 2008 is practically a bible for baseball fans. It previews the upcoming season, analyzing every major leaguer and basically any worthwile minor leaguer. A few of its unique qualities are its ability to predict a player's 2008 stats; compare that player to past players using stats, age, position, injuries, size; and its exclusize stats that adjust for level, park size, and opposition.
I thought I'd take a look at the Detroit Tigers section and see what stood out to me.

They show how the Tigers' defense in 2008 will be much better than the 2007 Marlins D. In fact, BP says, "Left side defenders Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, and Josh Willingham cost Willis at least a half-run in ERA more than average fielders would have, perhaps more." Even with Cabrera still behind him at 3rd, he gets Renteria at SS and Jacque Jones in LF. Those two are average and above-average on D, which should surely help Willis. So, when predicting Willis's 2008 performance, ignore that 5.17 2007 ERA and think a little lower. If he can lower his walk rate that has increased the last two years, Willis will be an excellent addition to our staff behind Verlander and Bonderman.

Curtis Granderson was recently signed to a long-term deal that will keep him in town until 2013. However, be cautious when looking for more of the same from Granderson in 2008. BP is skeptical about Granderson's continued improvement. They've projected him at a .267/.339/.467 (BA/OBP/SLG) line this year. That just about splits the difference between his '06 and '07 lines. Keep in mind, these projections I will mention are the mean projection of thousands that there system computes. So, Granderson can certainly outperform that, and likely will. It simply serves to remind us that he's not a complete player yet. His inability to hit lefthanders and his K/BB rate are big negatives. In fact, his top comparable is Andy Van Slyke. Van Slyke was a great player in the late 1980s-early 1990s for the Pirates. Like Granderson, he was a great CF who could steal bases, hit triples, HR, and 2Bs. But, he also struggled to hit lefties, and only once did he better his age-26 season. Granderson was 26 in 2007. Something to think about.

If you're looking for our top bench player, look no further than Ryan Raburn. As someone who can play all OF spots and 2B, I see no reason why Raburn shouldn't be on the major league roster in 2008. Over a full season of at-bats, BP projects him to hit 19 HR, 28 2B, and steal 14 bases. While he won't get enough plate appearances off the bench to see those types of numbers, it shows what he can do for the team. We can give someone the day off and not see much drop-off in talent. With the age in our starting lineup, Raburn is a terrific option off the bench.

I'm not too sure about my readers, but I was one of the biggest Chris Shelton fans. He was a solid hitter who could play a decent first base at a cheap price. In 2006, the Tigers gave up on the 26-year-old 1B who was hitting .273/.340/.466. It's not quite the power you want out of your corner infielders, but look who they replaced him with. Sean Casey slugged .364 and .393 the past two years. Well, what about his ability to get on base or play defense? According to BP, Shelton was the better fielder and Casey didn't reach base all that much better (.353). I think it's a shame Shelton didn't get a better chance in Detroit. Offense wasn't this team's problem in 2007, but there's still no need to make it worse. Shelton was and still is a better bet than Casey. Luckily Shelton is now in Texas where he will have a chance at the 1B job. Casey is in Boston where he'll try to find at-bats behind Youkilis and Ortiz. Good luck.

Another of my favorite overlooked players is Marcus Thames. Too often, Leyland looked to people like Timo Perez and Casey when he needed a pinch-hitter or a first baseman. Thames should have received much more time at first. Instead, Casey showed yet again that he has the weakest bat of any 1B in recent memory. Given the at-bats, Thames can slug over .500 and hit 25-30 HRs. Since he can't hit righthanders, the Tigers brought in Jacque Jones to do that job. Leyland needs to play Thames against all lefties and let him pinch-hit whenever possible. The man flat out rake. His top comparables are guys like Ron Kittle, Gus Zernial, Dave Kingman, and Glenn Davis. All of them were straight power hitters, nothing else. They weren't complete players by any means. But the men could hit HRs like it was T-ball. At age 31, Thames needs more chances sooner rather than later.

Quick, which pitcher had the worst year for the Tigers in 2007? I'm sure at least a few of you would say Jason Grilli. In fact, Grilli was actually a pretty decent pitcher. He lowered his walk and HR rate from 2006 while raising his K rate. It was his batting average on balls in play that affected his ERA and perceived performance. In reality, pitchers have little control on the balls hit in play. That average tends to fluctuate yearly. Stats like walks, HRs, and Ks, are under a pitcher's control. The rest tends to be reflective of the defense or park size. If Grilli continues his 2007 improvements, he could actually be a reliable later inning option with Zumaya out.

Our rotation is pretty solid and a good bet to stay healthy except for Kenny Rogers. At 43, the Tigers must be prepared to deal with a possible injury and/or ineffectiveness. Some of the contenders for the job are Yorman Bazardo, Zach Miner, and Macay McBride. Bazardo doesn't walk many batters, but he doesn't strike many out either. Others who have had that problem include Nate Cornejo and Todd Jones. One never made it, the other is barely hanging on. Miner is probably the best bet to be our "6th starter." He is a terrific groundball pitcher, rarely allowing a HR. He can also strike people out, something Bazardo can't do. But, watch out for McBride. Somewhat forgotten after struggling last year, he has all the tools to start in the majors. Converted to a lefty specialist by Atlanta, McBride has had control problems as a reliever. Now back to starting, McBride has the best pitches and K rate of the three candidates. Assuming he does well with a little refresher course in Toledo, McBride could be a solid league-average replacement for Rogers.

Interesting tidbits: Nate Robertson's top comparable is Kenny Rogers. Justin Verlander counts Josh Beckett and Don Newcombe among his most comparable pitchers. Not too bad, huh?

For all those concerned about Fernando Rodney: forget it. He's the same pitcher he was in 2006. His K, HR, and BB rates the last 3 years are nearly similar. Again, like Grilli, the only difference was his BABIP. In 2007, it was .306. In '06 it was .238. Assuming it regresses to the mean (and he's healthy), Rodney should have no problem as our top setup man in 2008. Still worried? Two of his four top comparables are Hoyt Wilhelm and Aurelio Lopez. Wilhelm was arguably the best reliever of the 1960s, while Lopez starred for the early 1980s Tigers.

Detroit Lions Off-Season Preview Part II

2008-02-26T17:42:00.000-05:00

Yesterday, I looked at the Lions' offense and what it needs to do this off-season to improve. Today, I will examine the other side of the ball. The defense needs much more attention than the offense. It will lose multiple free agents, as well as players who have already been released or are being shopped. With that being said, let's start with the defensive line.

DL
DE
Dewayne White
Ikaika Alama-Francis
Jared DeVries
Kalimba Edwards
UFA- Corey Smith

DT
Cory Redding
Shaun Rogers
Shaun Cody
RFA- Langston Moore

We have two starters solidified right now in White and Redding. White was second on the team in sacks in his first season coming over from Tampa Bay. He is a solid pass rusher and acceptable against the run. The other defensive end position is wide open. Francis is young and untested, but he could win the job. He earned more playing time as the season progressed, but still may need another year as a backup in the line rotation. DeVries has been around forever, it seems, but again, he's nothing more than a solid backup. He started a career-high 10 games in 2007, recording 6.5 sacks, but at age 32, it strikes me as very fluky. We cannot rely on him as a starter again. Even though we have Francis as a young end, I would still feel more comfortable with another draft pick or young free agent. Edwards is all but gone as he was inactive for the last four games. He's burned so many bridges in the organization with his failed potential that I see no way to bring him back.
At tackle, we have another troubling situation. Our one Pro Bowl-caliber defensive player, Rogers, has squabbled with management numerous times. His issues with weight, drugs, and work ethic have led the Lions to seek a trade. Recent rumors have him heading to Denver for a 2nd and/or 3rd-rd pick. Whether he ends up in Denver or somewhere else, suffice to say he won't be in Honolulu Blue in the fall. It's sad that we are going to give up such a talented player, but in a rebuilding organization, the last thing we need is a malcontent that will only contribute to the lousy atmosphere. Cory Redding is the definite starter at the other tackle. He improved his run defense in 2007, setting a career-high in tackles. However, he only recorded one sack, down from 8 in 2007. On a line with Rogers, one sack is pitiful. Hopefully, this was an aberration, as he was still making plays. I just hope he can make more of those plays in the backfield. Cody seems to be ready to step in as the new DT starter if Rogers leaves. He has shown he can be a solid run-stopper, but he has only 1.5 sacks in 37 games as a Lion. He was a DE most of his college career, so I see no reason why he can't be an effective pass rusher.
Overall, this is a line severely lacking in depth. We will probably end up starting a couple players that would be better served as backups. Amazingly, this won't be our priority in the 1st round (CB is #1). But, we need to address our depth here either through the draft or in free agency. As the Giants showed in the Super Bowl, an effective D-line rotation can alter ballgames. By trading away our best lineman, we are weakening an already feeble position.

LB
Alex Lewis
Paris Lenon
Ernie Sims
Anthony Cannon
Buster Davis
FA- Teddy Lehman, Boss Bailey

Our starting lineup currently consists of Ernie Sims on the outside and Paris Lenon in the middle. Bailey's departure opens a hole at the other outside spot. There's no need to look in-house. Lewis and Cannon are nothing more than depth and special teams fodder. At 6' 228, Cannon is likely too small to start, but he could be a nice backup. Lewis is almost the exact same size, and he has been able to carve out a major role on special teams. Davis is even smaller at 5'9 239, so I can't see him becoming a starter. He played only one game last season, spending the majority on the practice squad. He would have to seriously improve his game to warrant extensive playing time. The Lions have already started looking at free agent options on the outside. Former Bronco Al Wilson has been mentioned as a possible solution. One problem with that: He didn't play at all in 2007 because of a head injury late in 2006. At age 31, it would be interesting to see what Wilson has left. He could play the middle or the outside. Playing Wilson in the middle would push Lenon to the outside, a position he has played in the past. If healthy, Wilson is an All-Pro candidate, but there are no guarantees. Regardless of Wilson's presence, the Lions still need to address the depth (this will be a common phrase this spring in Allen Park).

DB
CB
Ramzee Robinson
Dovonte Edwards
LaMarcus Hicks
UFA- Travis Fisher, Keith Smith
RFA- Stanley Wilson

S
Kenoy Kennedy
Gerald Alexander
Patrick Body
Greg Blue
Daniel Bullocks
UFA- Idrees Bashir

After releasing Fernando Bryant, Detroit is severely lacking at the CB position. Our other starter, Fisher, and our nickel back, Smith, are free agents. Wilson was also a solid contribubtor before going down to injury in late November. He, too, is a restricted free agent. The players left on the roster are practice squad and special team types, only receiving playing time because of others' injuries. Our top priority will be to draft a corner at the #15 slot in the draft, regardless of who we can re-sign. Multiple mocks have us picking Aqib Talib of Kansas. Talib is a solid corner who has tremendous speed and coverage ability. We're probably going to take a few more DBs in later rounds as well to add depth. We absolutely need to re-sign our FA corners. Fisher and Wilson are certainly not top-notch corners. Smith is a solid nickel back and special teamer, if nothing else. But, the other FA DB options are limited.
Safety is actually a somewhat promising spot. While Kennedy will likely be bought out (he's 30 and has lost some speed and coverage ability), Gerald Alexander is ready to step in. A 2nd-rd pick out of Boise St., Alexander was one of the only Lions' draft picks to contribute heavily. He led all rookie safeties in tackles and started every game. Our free safety should be Daniel Bullocks. He missed 2007 with an injury, but he played very well in his rookie campaign in 2006, compiling 70 tackles. A solid core of Alexander and Bullocks is a good asset to build around.

Special Teams
Jason Hanson, K
Nick Harris, P
Don Muhlbach, LS

Harris has greatly improved his game since coming to Detroit in 2003. He has averaged about 44 yds/punt the past three years. He has not had one blocked as well. Harris is only 30, which is quite young in punter standards, so he should be in Detroit for a while.
There aren't many kickers that are the face of their franchise. But, Hanson's constant presence on the Lions is refreshing for most fans. Even at 38, Hanson's leg has lost little. He is still deadly accurate at 83% the past two years. He is even 6-10 from 50+, a remarkable stat for his age. There is no reason to doubt Hanson's reliability until he proves otherwise.
The only special teams area that needs addressing is the return game. Ever since Eddie Drummond began getting hurt every other play, Detroit has struggled to find a solid return man. Whether it's one of our diminutive backup wideouts or a free agent pickup, the Lions need to improve the return game. Our field position has suffered as we try to find an adequate replacement.

Overall, this is a defense in serious need of help. Our depth is lacking at every position, especially the defensive backfield. We've already lost Bryant and Bailey. We may soon lose Kennedy and Rogers through trades or release. If we can't adequately replace those players through the draft or free agency, next year could get ugly in a hurry. I don't care how good our offense can be. Without a defense to hold down the fort, we won't win too many games.

Detroit Lions Off-Season Preview Part I

2008-02-25T16:08:00.000-05:00

In a surprising development, the Detroit Lions finished yet another season below .500 and out of the NFL Playoffs. But, at 7-9, it was their best record of Matt Millen's tenure. Is this a sign of genuine improvement, or simply a high-water mark that won't be reached again? If you are a Lions fan, you probably already know the answer. I'm going to take a position-by-position look at the team, first offense, then tomorrow defense, to see what Detroit can do this spring.

QB
Jon Kitna
Drew Stanton
Dan Orlovsky, restricted free agent
Unrestricted FA- J.T. O'Sullivan

This is one of the most uninspiring crop of quarterbacks in the league. While Kitna is certainly not awful (he completed over 60% of his passes the past two years), he turns the ball over far too many times to be a starting QB. He has thrown more INTs than TDs the last two years and will be 36 when the 2008 season starts. A 36-year-old might be okay for a team actually in contention, but Kitna offers nothing to a team like Detroit. We should be building for the future, developing younger players. Instead, as Lions' management continues to inform us, Kitna will once again be our starter in '08. What could it hurt to try Stanton or Orlovsky? Although, I'm not as high on Orlovsky as I once was, considering he couldn't beat out J.T. O'Sullivan for the backup spot last season. Stanton should be given every opportunity to win the starting spot in camp. A young, mobile QB like Stanton would be great for the Lions. Behind our putrid offensive line, someone with Stanton's legs would be much more useful than Kitna (sacked 114 times in two years). Look for Detroit to go into camp with Kitna and Stanton 1-2, but don't I anticipate Stanton getting a fair shot.

RB
Kevin Jones
Brian Calhoun
Jon Bradley
UFA- Aveion Cason, Tatum Bell, T.J. Duckett

When healthy and used properly, Jones is one of the best backs in the league, I firmly believe that. Unfortunately, he's only played one full season, in 2004. When active, OC Mike Martz frequently overlooked him for the passing game. But, in the five games that Jones got 15+ carries in 2007, he averaged 87.4 yds. He's proven he can catch the ball out of the backfield, with 61 catches in 2006. It's his injuries and Martz's offense that have held him back. If healthy, and without Martz, Jones can put up 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns. But, the Lions will need a soldi backup as insurance. Our other young back, Brian Calhoun, has also been injury-prone however. He's played 11 games in two years since coming out of Wisconsin. He's a decent guy to keep around for returns and third-down plays because of his speed, but we can't count on him much longer. Look for the Lions to bring back Duckett as Jones' backup. His size is a perfect complement to Jones and Calhoun. Something changed with Duckett in 2007. He resurrected his career, averaging over five yds/carry for the first time as a pro. Even with Duckett, we should still look at drafting a back in the middle rounds because of Jones' and Calhoun's injury history. I can't see Martz favorite Cason sticking around, same with Bell. He has good talent, but something never clicked with him and the Lions' management. Chalk that one up as another bust for Millen: Dre Bly for Tatum Bell and George Foster? What did that get us? Foster was in and out of the lineup and Bell was inactive most of the year. All of this while Bly started all year for the Broncos.
At fullback, a position neglected by Martz, we have former D-lineman Jon Bradley and H-back Sean McHugh. Neither is a typical fullback, but combined the two are productive enough. Bradley is a bruising blocker that is good for short-yardage situations. McHugh is more of a pass-catcher at 6'5". Depending on which direction our new offense goes, we may need to pick up a more traditional FB, but for now, I like the platoon we have.

WR
Mike Furrey
Shaun McDonald
Roy Williams
Calvin Johnson
Brandon Middleton
Devale Ellis
FA- Troy Walters

On paper, this is a terrific wideout crew. We have a solid possession receiver in Mike Furrey, a guy who can over the middle in Roy Williams, and a deep threat in Calvin Johnson. We then have the requisite scatbacks, return-types in Middleton and Ellis. McDonald is expected to be traded this offseason as we look to clear the logjam at the position. Our new offense doesn't seem to require the same amount of receivers, so McDonald is expendable. Really, this group doesn't require much tinkering. Williams is rumored to be leaving after the season when is contract is up, so we might draft a WR in later rounds, but we have much greater needs elsewhere. With Johnson healthy, he and Williams should form a potent combo.

TE
Casey FitzSimmons
Dan Campbell
FA-John Owens

Another position overlooked by the Martz offense. These guys did their job adequately enough in limited time, but as full starters, they might not cut it. Campbell is one of the best blocking tight ends in the league, but missed the majority of last season with an injury. FitzSimmons is also primarily a blocking TE and special teams player. I would love to see us pick up a TE that can actually catch, but I'm not counting on it. Again, we have bigger needs on both lines and in the secondary. A TE who can stretch the middle of the field would be amazing for our wideout crew, but for now, having two great blockers might be more beneficial considering our porous offensive line.

OL
Tackles
Jonathan Scott
Jeff Backus
FA- Barry Stokes, George Foster

Guards
Edwin Mulitalo
Stephen Peterman
Manny Ramirez
Blane Saipaia
Frank Davis
FA - Damien Woody

Center
Dominic Raiola

Right now, our starting line would look like this
LT- Backus
LG- Mulitalo
C- Raiola
RG- Peterman
RT- Scott

Not exactly the mid-90s Cowboys is it? I don't see Woody coming back. He never fulfilled his potential as a free agent and bounced between tackle, guard, and the bench the last couple years. Our tackles are merely serviceable. Backus is nothing special, certainly not worthy of his first-round selection. Scott was injured for the last month of 2007, but would likely have taken over for Foster if not for that. For a Lions' 5th-round pick, Scott has proven to be quite a surprise. I would be shocked if he wasn't our best lineman in 2008. Raiola is probably our best at this point, but that's more of a default choice than anything else. He has played every game since being drafted in 2001, being consistently average or so. Compared to the rest of the people who have lined up around him, that's pretty good. Our guard position has been fluctuating for years now without any consistent play. Mulitalo somewhat solidified the LG spot in 2007. He was an anchor on Baltimore's line for years, but he's near the end of the line now at age 34. I'd like to see the Lions develop a younger guard here for 2009. On the right side, Peterman was a surprise last year. After being a 3rd-rd pick of Dallas in 2004, he experienced injuries and never got a fair chance. Coming to Detroit, he spent most of 2006 on the practice squad. Then, last year he started 13 games. He was an All-American at LSU his senior year, so he certainly has the ability. I need to see Peterman win the job with a full camp after taking over during the season because there were no other options. In the offseason, the Lions need to add depth, especially at the tackles. Even as a Michigan guy, I can't see Backus as a starting tackle for a playoff contender. I've heard rumors about signing the Jaguars' Maurice Williams, a solid guy who could play both sides. He would be a good addition, but I worry Millen will overpay.

With new offensive coordinator Jim Colletto, we should have a more balanced offense. Our receivers are the best part of this team, but we need to establish a running game as well. That way, Kitna isn't getting blitzed every down. Jones and Calhoun have the talent to get yards if healthy and given carries. But, it's tough to get excited about those guys when you know the man running the offense is Kitna. He's a 36-year-old who has never proven himself to be a playoff quarterback. He's a great backup because he has the ability to throw a few TDs and move an offense. But, over a full season, he turns the ball over far too often and doesn't know when to throw the ball away. This is getting depressing fast, so we'll take a break and go after the defense tomorrow.

NBA Trade Deadline Analysis

2008-02-21T16:24:00.000-05:00

Trade #1

San Antonio gets Kurt Thomas
Seattle gets Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, 2009 1st rd pick

I love this trade for both teams. Tim Duncan gets solid frontline help to go along with Fabricio Oberto. Now, the Spurs have a solid 3-man frontcourt to defend the West's big men like Boozer, Stoudemire, Shaq, Yao, and Dirk. Elson has fallen out of the rotation in favor of Matt Bonner, while Barry has been in and out of the lineup all year with injuries. In Barry's absence, Ime Udoka's improving play off the bench made Barry expendable.

Seattle gets rid of Thomas, an older veteran, to make way for younger players like Nick Collison, Robert Swift, and Johan Petro. They especially want to see what Swift can do, as he has just recently returned from injury. The Sonics get two expiring contracts in return as well as a late 1st rd pick. This continues their rebuilding process around Kevin Durant and Jeff Green.

Trade #2

New Orleans gets Bonzi Wells, Mike James
Houston gets Bobby Jackson, Adam Haluska, 2nd-rd pick, draft rights to Sergei Lishouk
Grizzlies get Marcus Vinicius, draft rights to Malick Badiane, cash considerations

I absolutely love what the Hornets have done here. In Tuesday's post, I called for New Orleans to get guard help and they did. They traded away Jackson, an undersized shooting guard, for Bonzi Wells, a big guard who can score in bunches. I think he might even start over Morris Peterson by the playoffs. If Wells can come anywhere close to what he did for the Kings in the 2006 Playoffs (23.2, 12.0 rpg), he will be well worth the acquisition. James will step in as Chris Paul's backup. He has proven he can score in the playoffs and his dogged defender. The Hornets have greatly improved their depth in this trade while giving up nothing of significant value.

Trade #3

Detroit gets Juan Dixon
Toronto gets Primoz Brezec

This trade really doesn't change either team much. Yet, I'm still confused over the intent. Detroit has a player much like Dixon sitting on their inactive list (Flip Murray). Why not just activate Murray and stash Brezec on the IL? Both players involved have expiring contracts so there was no need to clear cap space. I tend to question Dumars on his drafting, but his trades are usually pretty smart. This one leaves me confused. Even for Toronto, it's odd. Dixon wasn't getting much playing time, but Brezec won't offer anything that Maceo Baston or Nesterovic don't already have.

Trade #4

Houston gets Gerald Green
Minnesota gets Kirk Snyder, 2010 2nd rd pick

This is simply a trade of two guys who weren't happy in their current situation. Green wanted out of Minnesota, and Snyder out of Houston. Both teams met their demands and hopefully both players will be happy now. Wells' exit from the Rockets might clear some time for Green, as Houston is now full of short guards behind McGrady. But Snyder will have to hope for Minnesota to buy out Antoine Walker's contract before he gets any significant time.

Trade #5

Here's the biggie, 3 teams, 11 players:

Chicago gets Drew Gooden, Larry Hughes, Cedric Simmons, Shannon Brown
Cleveland gets Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak
Seattle gets Ira Newble, Adrian Griffin, Donyell Marshall

Let's get the Sonics out of the way first. They save about 5 million trading Marshall/Griffin for Wally/West and Newble's contract is up after this season. They continue to rid themselves of older veterans as West and Wally leave. That paves the way for Jeff Green to get more playing time. It also somewhat clears up their three-headed PG battle, leaving just Earl Watson and Luke Ridnour. I still see the Sonics addressing that position in the offseason.

Chicago is interesting to me here. I've always said they need more offense, and they accomplished that by getting Gooden and Hughes for Smith/Wallace. By jettisoning their starting frontcourt, they open up time for Joakim Noah and Ty Thomas. But, who is the center now? They are going to be very undersized at the post. I would assume Noah starts, but Aaron Gray could also get a look. Where does Hughes fit in with this backcourt? He has 3 yrs remaining on his contract, so it isn't like this is a rental. Coach Boylan will have to decide how to divide playing time between Hughes, Ben Gordon, Kirk Hinrich, Chris Duhon, and Thabo Sefolosha. The more I look at this, the more I like it. Wallace and Smith were decent players, but past their prime and blocking more deserving players. The young frontcourt guys now have the rest of the year to earn a starting job next season, while Boylan has time to sort out the backcourt. Instead of playing an offensive zero like Wallace, the Bulls are now free to open up the offense a bit more. They might have to sacrifice defensively, but the benefit to the offense will outweigh that.

As much as I hate to admit this, I like what Cleveland did as well. There is very little risk involved. Hughes has proven he can't play with LeBron. Mike Brown has never seemed too impressed with Gooden's defense or inconsistency. Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons haven't developed as quickly as the Cavs hoped. And Newble and Marshall are players with little value at this stage of their careers, Newble playing because of decent defense, Marshall because he can shoot a corner 3. Of all the players they got in return, only Wallace's contract (15m/3yrs) extends beyond 2009. And really, that just cancels out Hughes' contract (12m/3yrs). Smith and Wally have contracts that end in 2009 and West's contract is done after this season. The Cavs went farther than anyone expected with this group last season and couldn't realistically repeat that. They had to make a change, something to keep LeBron happy before he becomes a free agent.

They've given Ilgauskas some inside help with Wallace and Smith. Gooden and Smith are pretty similar players, but Wallace gives them a better defensive presence. At this point in their careers, Wallace is actually worse than Anderson Varejao. But Varejao has been out since Jan. 27 with an ankle sprain and Wallace gives them insurance in case he doesn't come back to full health. West will likely step right in as the starting point guard. He's not an ideal pass-first point guard, but because LeBron handles the ball so much, West's decent shooting ability and quickness will help off the ball. The Cavs, disliking Hughes so much, have gone the completely opposite direction with Wally Z. Hughes was a slasher, while Wally is a much better shooter. In fact, Wally has shot over 45% every full season he's played. Considering he offers little else, Cleveland has to hope Pavlovic or Devin Brown can pick up some of the athleticism factor from the bench. But, overall the Cavs needed to make a move to keep up with Boston and Detroit. It's a pretty dramatic makeover at this point in the season for a contender, but they weren't going to get past the Celts or Pistons with their current makeup.

Detroit Tigers Spring Training Preview

2008-02-20T17:11:00.000-05:00

Pitchers and catchers have already reported and position players must show up by Tuesday. With that in mind, I thought today would be a good time to examine the Tigers' spring training issues.

The starting lineup is essentially set as is:

C - Ivan Rodriguez
1B - Carlos Guillen
2B - Placido Polanco
SS - Edgar Renteria
3B - Miguel Cabrera
LF - Jacque Jones
CF - Curtis Granderson
RF - Magglio Ordonez
DH - Gary Sheffield

The batting order would look like this:

1. Granderson
2. Polanco
3. Cabrera
4. Ordonez
5. Sheffield
6. Guillen
7. Renteria
8. Jones
9. Rodriguez

Against lefties, I might think about switching Renteria and Granderson when a lefthander is on the mound.

From my point of view, this bench looks to be set as well. Assuming Vance Wilson is healthy, he's our backup catcher. Our backup infielders will be Brandon Inge and Ramon Santiago. Our OFs will be Marcus Thames and Ryan Raburn. Battling Raburn for a spot in the spring will be Freddy Guzman and Timo Perez. Guzman is a speedster who offers little else. Perez will look to capitalize on his amazingly fluky second half and win a spot. I hope we keep Inge as a backup, I really do. He can play outfield, third, and catcher, and probably the other infield positions in a pinch. Especially if Wilson doesn't come back at full strength or experiences an age-related decline, Inge can be a fine backup catcher. As a starting third baseman, Inge was well below-par offensively. However, as someone who can play multiple positions, especially catcher, Inge's power off the bench is extremely valuable. Plus, he is only 30 years old so, if he sticks around, he can be a bridge to our next young catcher after Pudge retires. If Inge is traded during camp, it will open up a bench spot for either Mike Hessman or Brent Clevlen. Both players have the power to contribute off the bench, but they don't offer Inge's versatility.

Leyland could also decide (please, please!!) that he doesn't need Santiago on the bench. Raburn and Inge can handle third and second, Guillen can handle short obviously. Santiago offers no offense and little versatility on defense. Perhaps with Zumaya's injury, Leyland will take a 12th pitcher and let Santiago go. As much as I don't like seeing teams carry 12 pitchers, especially in April when there are more off-days, Santiago's presence is redundant. Our bullpen is our weakness and we will need more reinforcements there than on offense.

I also am anxious to see how Leyland handles the LF spot. Jones looks to be the weak link of our offense at this point. In fact, three of his most similar players are Rondell White, Juan Encarnacion, and Bobby Higginson, all former underachieving Tiger OFs. Neither Jones nor Thames offer much in terms of batting eye or discipline at the plate. They are free swingers that will pop the occasional homer. But, Jones does his best against righties, while Thames mashes lefties. Hopefully, Leyland sticks with this platoon to maximize our lineup potential.

Another area of concern is Granderson's ability to hit lefties. As our leadoff hitter and tablesetter for such an impressive lineup, we need Granderson to improve that stat. His averages last year were .190/.225/.269 (AVG/OBP/SLG) against southpaws. Against righties, he hit .337/.393/.621, which frankly would have been Hall of Fame numbers over a whole season. If he wants to be an All-Star and help our offense reach its full potential, the Tigers need Granderson to become at least league-average against lefties.

I'm not too concerned with Guillen's move to first. I was impressed in his limited duty there last season and he didn't do anything to change my mind in Winter Ball or the World Baseball Classic a couple years ago. I am curious to see what Renteria will do in his return to the American League. The last time he was here in 2005 with Boston, he had the worst year of his career with 30 errors and 100 Ks. Now, after rejuvenating his career in Atlanta, which Renteria will we see? The one whose career was on the decline with St. Louis and Boston, or this new Renteria that walks more, regained power, and improved his defense?

As always, the issue with this Tigers squad will be the players' health. Our stars very fragile and we need to monitor their health throughout March. Any rest they can get is needed because our minor league system won't offer much in the way of reinforcements.

On to the pitching staff, our starting five looks to be set as well. If Leyland wants to alternate lefties and righties, he'll likely begin with Kenny Rogers, followed by Justin Verlander, Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman, than Dontrelle Willis. However, the more likely rotation will be Verlander, Rogers, Bonderman, Willis, Robertson. I'm not too concerned with the order, frankly. If anyone gets injured, we have Zach Miner, Denny Bautista, Jordan Tata, and Virgil Vasquez waiting in reserve.

The bullpen is the area with the most question marks heading into camp. A few jobs are locked down, but the back end is wide open. Todd Jones returns as the closer. As long as we bring him in with no one on base, anything else becomes dangerous. Fernando Rodney will be our top setup man for the 8th. Joel Zumaya is out until about midseason, so look for lefty specialists Bobby Seay and Tim Byrdak to pick up some of his role. Jason Grilli will also likely be back in long relief. Those five will comprise the main relievers. The sixth (or seventh) reliever who gets to stick around until Zumaya gets back is probably the biggest position battle of the spring. Those in contention include Yorman Bazardo, Zach Miner, Denny Bautista, Francisco Cruceta, Macay McBride, and Clay Rapada. Moreso than talent, a big factor in determining these spots will be who has options left. If someone can be sent to the minors without facing waivers first, it makes it much easier to send him down. Bazardo, Bautista, and Cruceta are out of options, therefore must go through waivers before being sent down. All three have pitched in multiple organizations, as teams have been in love with their potential, but let down by the results. Bautista and Cruceta are flamethrowers, but have shown little control. On the other hand, Bazardo is a sinkerballer who has a little too much control, surrendering too many HRs last year. I imagine at least one will make the team because of their situation. Miner has shown what he can do the last couple years. He's a serviceable arm out of the pen who can start when needed. But, I think Detroit will end up stashing him in Toledo and bring him up when injuries/doubleheaders occur. Rapada and McBride are two young lefties that are likely to be sent to Toledo as well as insurance for Byrdak and Seay. Obviously, you aren't going to find a perfect guy to round out the back end of a bullpen. When it comes down to it, Detroit will likely take some combo of Cruceta, Bazardo, and Bautista to round out the pen.

The End Is Near Pt. 2

2008-02-19T17:52:00.000-05:00

Today, I continue with my look at the NBA's second half. Here's a team-by-team look at the Western Conference.

Dallas Mavericks: I've already discussed the Jason Kidd trade and how I feel about losing Devin Harris. Even though some of you have told me, Dallas had to shake things up, I still see this as a lateral move. That being said, the new trade has them keeping Stackhouse, which helps greatly. Their shooting guard position has been weak and Stack needs to be there to provide scoring help off the bench. He's too old to start anymore, but his presence for 25 minutes a game is a plus. Without Diop on the bench, look for the Mavs to play more small-ball when Dampier is out of the game. This means more playing time for Brandon Bass and that can only be a good thing. Bass averages 8 points and 4.5 rebounds a game in only 20 minutes off the bench. At 6'8," he can defend the 3 or 4 while giving Dallas another offensive weapon.

Denver Nuggets: Reason #1 why this team won't do any damage in the playoffs -- Anthony Carter is their starting point guard. At 32, he has has career avgs. of 39% FG, 5 ppg, and 3.9 apg. Basically, somewhere between Mateen Cleaves and Eric Snow. I think Denver would be much better off playing AI at the point full-time and giving people like Linas Kleiza and J.R. Smith more PT on the wings. Stop wasting time with people like Carter and Yakhouba Diawara and give some time to the more talented players. So maybe George Karl doesn't like J.R. Smith, but too bad, he's effective. He can flat-out shoot, something Carter has never been able to do. If the Nuggets want to overtake Utah for the division title, they're going to have to replace Carter. Yes, he's having a career year, but so did Shane Halter and Deivi Cruz at one point. GMs and coaches have to recognize when career years are flukes, not the norm.

Golden St. Warriors: You always know what you're going to get with this squad -- run n' gun, shots from anywhere on the court, and little defense. Don Nelson has used this formula his whole career and it's gotten him plenty of playoff appearances, but no titles. Phoenix has given up this style of play and brought Shaq into the mix. The Warriors, though, will gut it out and keep running. I hated the Webber signing when it happened and I still don't like it. He's already taken a game off to get acclimated to the offense and get into shape. I just don't think he's built to run any longer. It'll be interesting to see what he can do the rest of the way. I'd hate to see him take playing time away from people like Andris Biedrins or Mickael Pietrus because, frankly, he's not nearly better than those two anymore. These guys won't surprise anyone in the playoffs this year like they did last season.

Houston Rockets: This is a team built around Yao and T-Mac, plain and simple. But it's Rick Adelman's plethora of guards that makes or breaks this squad. The play of people like Rafer Alston, Luther Head, Bonzi Wells, Mike James, and Aaron Brooks are crucial to the Rockets' success. The one player not mentioned in that group is Steve Francis. What has happened to Francis in the past 3 years is amazing. For someone who is only 30 years old, Francis has seen his career completely apart. He averaged 20, 6, and 6 in his first six seasons. Yet, now, after a season-ending injury, we're talking about Francis being washed-up. It's rare to see someone's career evaporate so rapidly. According to databasebasketball.com, three of Francis' most similar players are Anfernee Hardaway, Jamal Mashburn, and Kelly Tripucka. All of those guys were essentially done by the time they hit 31. But, those players all had major injuries that forced them to quit early. Francis has simply stopped being good. There's very little explanation for what's happened. Even though Francis has a bad rep for refusing to report to Vancouver when he was drafted, it's still sad to see someone's skills diminish so fast.

LA Clippers: Riddled with injuries, the Clippers have fallen back into NBA irrelevance after a couple years flirting with the playoffs. Without Elton Brand up front, the Clips have been unable to find a second solid scoring option behing Corey Maggette. But, with a season of misery comes a couple breakthroughs. Chris Kaman and Al Thornton have stepped up this season and given Clips fans hope for 2008-09. Kaman averages 16.4, 13.6, and 3 bpg as the Clips' only frontcourt option. His stats had been pretty stagnant since he entered the league, even going down last season. But, he has bounced back in a big way in Brand's absence. He has been pretty consistent throughout the year, suggesting this is no fluke. Thornton has recently stepped his game up in 2008, putting up 15 and 5. He's already 24, so there may not be much more improvement, but he has shown he can be a solid guy off the bench behind Maggette. The Clips can't let Brand come back to play this year because they don't need to risk another injury. Get Cassell out of town to a contender, draft a young point guard in the draft and be ready for next season.

LA Lakers: By now, everything that could be said about the Gasol trade has been said. I want to see what the Lakers will do when Bynum comes back from injury. How will they play Odom, Gasol, and Bynum together? Odom may not be quick enough anymore to play 3's on defense. Do they bring one of them off the bench? Or do they use Gasol and Bynum as weakside help for Odom? I'm sure Phil Jackson can find a way to make it work, but will the players like it? There are bound to be less touches and someone might complain. This team is so incredibly deep, it's amazing. Jackson can go with Radmanovic, Walton, and Turiaf in the frontcourt or Vujacic and Farmer in the backcourt. Those five comprise a pretty deep bench. They can stretch the floor 4-out and have Turiaf setting screens and getting loose balls. Like most teams with a great starting five, the bench can get overlooked, but this Lakers group shouldn't be taken lightly.

Memphis Grizzlies: The antithesis to the Lakers. Their starters are horrible, bench is even worse, and they're losing money in an arena that's about half-full. Rudy Gay and Mike Conley are the obvious future of the team, but everything else seems to be up in the air. Can any other team claim to have the two biggest draft busts of the decade (Milicic and Kwame Brown)? How about the most overpaid player in the league (Brian Cardinal)? They claim to be clearing cap room by getting rid of Gasol (and possibly Mike Miller soon), but what free agent is going to want to join a team that might be moving in two years? With no chance at the playoffs, they need to take the second half to decide what do with a frontcourt that has no starter-quality players and which backup point guard to keep (Kyle Lowry or Javaris Crittenton). One more thing, how do you think Juan Carlos Navarro feels? One of the combo guards in Europe, he comes over from Spain to join best buddy Pau Gasol on a team coming off 3 playoff appearances in 4 years. Now, he comes off the bench for a team going nowhere and his best friend is off to LA.

Minnesota Timberwolves: I think this team definitely has the start of something good. They have a great building block down low with Al Jefferson. He makes the Garnett trade worth it. A 23-year-old big man that averages 21 and 12 is a rare commodity. Guys like Ryan Gomes and Craig Smith are also solid players to have around as well. Gomes would probably be better off the bench in the future, though. Their PG situation, with Telfair and Foye, has been hampered by Foye's season-long injury. Just recently back, Foye has struggled to regain his rhythm. However, I think once he returns to form, a lineup of Foye, McCants, Brewer, and Jefferson will be strong. Now, they just need a center. Jefferson has been playing out of position so far. Drafting someone like DeAndre Jordan, Brook Lopez, or Hasheem Thabeet would help big-time. The second half should be used to sort out the playing time battle between Foye and Telfair and to give Corey Brewer more PT. His offense isn't there yet, but he's already a versatile defender.

New Orleans Hornets: The Hornets have four above-average to great starters, but little in the way of a bench. In David West, Peja Stojakovic, and Tyson Chandler, they have 3 injury-prone starters. If anything were to happen, their frontcourt would be severely taxed. Froncourt backups Melvin Ely, Hilton Armstrong, and Ryan Bowen are offensive blackholes and none of them play more than 14 minutes/gm. Their backup guards, Jannero Pargo and Bobby Jackson are better on offense than defense because of their size, forcing Chris Paul to play major minutes. He's in the middle of his worst shooting month, at only 44.7% from the field and 71% from the line. For most players, that's a decent line. For Paul, it's a sign of decline. The Hornets need to be careful in the second half. If their bench doesn't improve, watch for them to fall back to the middle of the Western standings.

Phoenix Suns: For the Suns, the major test will be incorporating Shaq into their lineup. Losing Marion will only serve to increase Hill and Diaw's role in the offense. Marion averaged 10 rpg, but that should easily be replaced by a combo of Shaq, Hill and Diaw. I have little to say about Phoenix that I haven't already said in previous columns. This team, with Shaq, Nash, and Hill, is built to win sooner rather than later. If it can't get done this year, it may never happen.

Portland Trail Blazers: While they have predictably fallen back to earth, the Blazers have set themselves up nicely for the future. They have a quality 5,4,3, and 2, along with a solid bench. Oden, Aldridge, Roy, and Webster will be a good lineup. Having Travis Outlaw as a 6th man is a nice luxury. The question is the point guard slot. Steve Blake is much better suited as a backup than a starter. They will be getting Rudy Fernandez from Spain next season, and at 6'6", Fernandez has the height to defend bigger guards that Blake doesn't have. This season was written off once Oden got hurt; the winning record has been a big surprise. Next year is when Portland will be expected to contend.

Sacramento Kings: The last remaining link to the Divac-Peja-Webber-Bibby years is finally gone. The Kings have stumbled along the past couple years without a major identity. Now, that Bibby is gone, they can finally move forward and build a more cohesive team. The next step will be to trade Artest and maybe Brad Miller. Building around Kevin Martin, Beno Udrih, and perhaps someone like Francisco Garcia or John Salmons should be the next step. Their frontcourt is a mess of bad contracts and past-their-prime players. The next leg of the rebuilding process must start with finding a way to rid themselves of Kenny Thomas, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, and Mikki Moore. It's sad to see Sacramento waste such a tremendous fan base like Arco Arena has. That was one of the toughest places to play back in 2002. Now, this team has little to root for.

San Antonio Spurs: Does this team have one more championship run left? Aging wings Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley, and Brent Barry can't be expected to play much longer. And how long can Tim Duncan continue to post 20 and 10 nights? Much like the Pistons, the Spurs have chosen to stand pat while other teams make major moves before the trade deadline. Thus far, that formula has worked for the Spurs. They've shown they can play fast with Manu and Parker running the floor or they can play slow and let Bowen and Duncan clamp down on D. There are no secrets with the Spurs by now. It usually comes down to what unsung bench player helps out in the playoffs. With Robert Horry playing fewer and fewer minutes, who will it be this year?

Seattle Sonics: The Sonics have an interesting mix of players. On the hand, they are gearing up for the future with Durant, Jeff Green, Nick Collison, and Chris Wilcox. Yet, they also give big minutes to older players like Kurt Thomas, Wally Szczerbiak, and Earl Watson. The second half will be a big test as to which vets stick around and who goes. Most likely, people like Thomas and Wally be let go as Seattle sticks with the young guns. However, Watson has earned the starting nod over incumbent Luke Ridnour and will probably stay. After three failed lottery picks at center (Robert Swift, Johan Petro, and Saer Sene), Seattle still needs to find a center so Collison and Wilcox can play their natural 4 spot and they can get rid of Thomas. While this was obviously a rebuilding year, the future looks good with Green and Durant. The rest of the picture is still fuzzy, though.

Utah Jazz: Quietly, Utah is one of the best teams in the West once again. They are deep at every position and can play a variety of ways. Guys like Harpring, Millsap and Boozer allow Utah to play tough down low against stronger teams. Conversely, Utah has newfound athleticism in guards Ronnie Brewer, Ronnie Price, and C.J. Miles. Before, the Jazz struggled to play up-tempo, but these young guards have allowed Sloan to pick up the pace a bit. Though Okur has struggled most of the year, he, along with Kyle Korver, can spread the floor with long-range shooting and allow Boozer to score easier down low. In my opinion, Utah can win the West and it wouldn't be a surprise. They can match up with anyone in the league because of their depth across the board.

The End is Near

2008-02-18T14:50:00.000-05:00

Now that we've passed the All-Star Break, what types of storylines will emerge as the NBA hits its stretch run? I'm going to take a team-by-team look to find out. First the Eastern Conference, tomorrow the West.

Atlanta Hawks: Well look what we have here. A Hawks team that actually wants to contend? After years of living in the basement since the days of Mookie Blaylock and Steve Smith, Atlanta has finally positioned itself to be a contender. Maybe not a title contender, but their trade for Mike Bibby at least gives them a shot at the 5th seed. Without giving up any players of importance, Atlanta acquired that point guard they should've drafted 3 years ago (Paul or Williams). Acie Law IV isn't the answer yet, and while Bibby isn't the player he was six years ago, he's also playoff-tested and has shown the ability to run a high-octane offense.

Boston Celtics: The key down the stretch will be the C's bench. In the preseason, no one knew what to expect beyond the Big 3. Now, as Rondo has proven capable at the point, Boston needs people like Leon Powe and Glen Davis to provide help up front. They have come up big occasionally when Garnett has sat out. But, what will they do come playoff time? Rather, will Rivers trust them in the playoffs? Many coaches shorten the bench in May, but with Boston's Big 3 being older and having played so 35+ minutes per game, that bench will be counted upon.

Charlotte Bobcats: With as much talent as their starting five has, I'm surprised they haven't won more games, esp. in the East. Richardson and Wallace on the wings, with Okafor up front should be enough for more victories. There are two problems, though, that seem to hurt them. Okafor has never been, and never will be, a go-to post scorer. He gets his 12-15 points/gm without many plays run for him. It's J-Rich and Wallace that get the most scoring opps. The Cats need a post scoring option that can create his own offense. Their bench is also non-existent. Matt Carroll is the only bench player averaging over 4.4 points/gm. And Carroll is just a spot-up shooter. It makes me sick to even look at the bench. Othella Harrington and Derek Anderson are about 10 years beyond their prime. Earl Boykins no longer has the speed to make up for his stature. Adam Morrison and Sean May are great college players, but aren't going to cut it as pros (even when healthy). The other 3 are young big men Jared Dudley, Jemareo Davidson, and Ryan Hollins. All 3 have their uses on defense, but none is going to provide much offense. So, maybe the Cats can sneak in as an 8 seed, but beyond that, this team isn't set up to go very far in the future.

Chicago Bulls: This is a team without an identity. Coaches Boylen and Skiles have flip-flopped lineups all year, never settling on a working rotation. Kirk Hinrich has had a miserable year. Yea, Ben Gordon and Luol Deng are nice to have on the perimeter, but with no viable post options, spacing and easy shots become a difficulty. Perhaps because of his name, hair, or contract, Ben Wallace continues to get heavy playing time in the post. At ten games under .500, I want to see Ty Thomas and Joakim Noah get a little more PT. Really, is Joe Smith the answer at PF? No, as many teams have found out. He had a good couple months, but this team isn't going to win anything this year. Why not let Noah and Thomas play up front? Looking back, Pau Gasol would've played pretty nicely in this frontcourt, too bad they turned it down.

Cleveland Cavaliers: For the past three years, this team has gone largely unchanged. It's LeBron, Big Z, Gooden, Hughes, and Snow (now Gibson). James has proven he can carry the team to the Finals all by himself, so GM Danny Ferry basically said, 'Let's see you do it again.' They haven't improved this team at all, even missing out on the rumored Bibby trade. I want to see what Larry Hughes can do the rest of the way. A lottery pick out of St. Louis, Hughes once put up 20/gm in Washington. Now, whether it's his injuries or inability to play with LeBron, Hughes has struggled mightily in Ohio. However, in February he has put up 19/gm and 5 boards. That's the type of production Cleveland needs if it wants to take out Boston or Detroit.

Detroit Pistons: I've talked about this team recently, but if I want to pick one storyline for the 2nd half, it's the continued emergence of the bench. We all know what the starters give us. The bench is the question mark. Will Saunders continue to give them minutes so they can find a rhythm? Will he trust them in big playoff games? I'm anxious to see what Saunders does with Lindsey Hunter once the playoffs come. How much PT will he steal from Stuckey? I know his defense is a plus, but I cringe every time he shoots. For short bursts, I'd love to see Hunter and Afflalo attack on D, but anything more might cripple our offense.

Indiana Pacers: Sometimes I forget this team still exists. Seriously, how boring can one team be? Mike Dunleavy is your 2nd-leading scorer? I have no idea why they haven't gotten rid of O'Neal and Tinsley yet. Their injury concerns and contracts must be too much for anyone else to take on. As weird as this is, O'Neal is already 29 and on the downside of his career. Injuries have sapped his aggressiveness, forcing him into a jump-shooter. Now, Chris Webber and Antonio McDyess were able to effectively make the transition into that role. I'm curious to see if O'Neal can do the same. But the Pacers need to realize he's not a leading man anymore. And until that happens, this team won't go anywhere.

Miami Heat: Unless you lose Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen, it's pretty tough to go from Champs to chumps in two years. Miami has done exactly that, though. It's aging core from the title team got older and their bench wasn't strong enough to help. Shaq and Zo inevitably suffered injuries and Jason Williams showed once again that he can't be a dependable point. They traded one player Riley didn't like (Antoine Walker) for someone else he doesn't like (Ricky Davis) and a center who doesn't rebound (Mark Blount). I like what Dorell Wright and Daequan Cook can do off the bench, unfortunately Wright has had to start and neither is a point guard. Marcus Banks isn't the answer, either. Now, Miami has four guys who can play the wing with Marion and Wade starting, but no one who can effectively play center or point guard. Sadly, those are the two toughest positions to find. I'd almost rather see Miami get Derrick Rose in the draft than Michael Beasley. Point guard is a bigger need than PF, Haslem has manned that spot capably.

Milwaukee Bucks: A theme in the East, teams going nowhere. The Bucks aren't particularly bad, nor are they that good either. Although Yi has been playing the 4, I think he'll eventually end up at 3, where his slashing ability plays a little better. I expected Charlie Villanueva to develop better than he has. He had a good rookie year in Toronto, even putting up 50 one game. But, the trade to Milwaukee seems to have stunted his growth. If V can't put up better numbers in the 2nd half, I think Milwaukee needs to address his position in the draft. Perhaps Donte Greene out of Syracuse, or maybe grab Hasheem Thabeet from UConn and shift Bogut to 4.

New Jersey Nets: I like what the Nets are doing here. I mentioned this in previous Jason Kidd post, but I want to say it again. Getting Devin Harris and two picks for Kidd is brilliant. They still have Jefferson and VC on the wings. They're developing Sean Williams and Josh Boone inside. Plus, they still have Nenad Krstic, who once healthy, is an above-average center that can score and defend. This will be a dangerous team as a 7 or 8 seed in the East, although I think they'll eventually be battling Atlanta for the 5th spot behind Cleveland.

New York Knicks: Eddy Curry averages 4.8 rpg, David Lee 8.3. Who do you think starts for New York? Exactly. The Knicks management is clueless. Quentin Richardson, who has made a living off his head/fist pounding thing he did Darius Miles six years ago, has started every game. And he scores 7 ppg on 35% shooting!! There's really very little to say about the Knicks. Until Isiah Thomas leaves, the Knicks won't improve. Thomas is horrible at what he does, and much like he did the CBA, he has run the Knicks into the ground and it's going to take a long time before it gets better.

Orlando Magic: Who would've thought Rashard Lewis would be the Magic's third-leading scorer when he came over from Seattle? Probably the same amount of people that knew Hedo Turkoglu would be scoring 20/gm. I think the only thing holding this team back is a quality power forward and consistent point guard play. They've got away without a PF because Turkoglu and Lewis are both tall enough to grab some boards, but defensively, Howard has to take on double duty. Brian Cook and Adonal Foyle aren't the answers. Jameer Nelson has been in and out of the lineup this year, but he's shown he can handle the role. With a combo of Nelson, Arroyo, and Dooling, there's no reason Orlando should have a problem offensively. It's defense where they have problems. All 3 are too small to defend big guards like Billups, perhaps why Orlando was swept out of the playoffs last year.

Philadelphia 76ers: Quietly, the Sixers have snuck into the 8th spot in the East. Moreso out of default than anything else, but Philadelphia has found a good 1-2 combo in Iguodala and Miller. They also have terrific athletes off the bench that have the potential to grow into more complete players. When the inevitable Andre Miller trade happens, Philly has their new PG in Louis Williams. More of a scorer than a traditional point, Williams still averages 3.3 assists in only 22 minutes. I also like Thaddeus Young and Rodney Carney. Young should be Philly's starting PF for years to come. He's already taken the role from one-dimensional Reggie Evans, putting up season-highs in February of 12 ppg and 6.6 rpg. Though A.I. has been gone fora year, Philly has adjusted nicely, and I can see the core of Iguodala, Young, and Williams fitting together well.

Toronto Raptors: This is a team all about balance. They have nine guys over 6 points per game and only one over 12.5. Bosh clearly leads the team, but Toronto's array of guards and wings complements him nicely. After a surprising division title last year, Toronto has been eclipsed by the Celts in '08. Yet, this is still a dangerous squad. Jose Calderon was the best player in the East not on the All-Star team. He shoots 54%, dishes out 9 a game, and only turns it over 1.6 times per game. He's incredibly efficient and his pairing with T.J. Ford makes this the best point guard combo in the league. With Anthony Parker, Delfino, and Kapono on the wings, they have plenty of options. The Raptors are still hurting when it comes to the 4. Bosh is playing out of position at center because Andrea Bargnani has not progressed as most had hoped. He's regressed in almost all major categories in his 2nd season. And at 6'10" 250, he has the size to draw defenders away from Bosh. If he can do that, Toronto is a much better squad.

Washington Wizards: Frankly, I'm surprised Washington is still around in the playoff hunt. Arenas only played 8 games, leaving Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison to pick up the slack. Those two have done their usual work. It's been the supporting cast that has impressed me. Andray Blatche and Brendan Haywood have turned in remarkable seasons and will be the key for Washington down the stretch. With Arenas out, Washington has been more of an inside team. Haywood is averaging career highs in points, rebounds, shot attempts, and minutes played. For a guy known mostly for fighting with Etan Thomas over playing time, Haywood has been a major plus for the Wizards. Off the bench, young Andray Blatche has been the catalyst. He only played 12 minutes/gm last season, but he now plays 20/gm. With Butler out most of Feb., Blatche stepped up with 10.8 ppg and 8.5 rpg. His size (6'11") and ability to play the wing has made him dangerous to defend. In the past, Washington has lacked much depth behind its Big 3. Now, with Blatche and Haywood playing well, the Wizards are a different team. Unfortunately, Arenas's injury has hindered the team's progress as a whole.

All-Star Break NBA Awards

2008-02-15T15:50:00.000-05:00

I know it's a little past the true midseason point, but since I was writing then, I want to take today to hand out my award predictions for this NBA season.

MVP:

Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
Also Considered: LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett

With all apologies to Steve Nash and what's left of Jason Kidd, Chris Paul is now the best point guard in basketball. Paul is averaging over 20 ppg and 10 apg, a rarity in the NBA. He's shooting 48% from the field, another incredible feat for a guard. He also makes 35% of his 3's and 87% from the line. He does all this while playing 38 minutes/gm. In a stocked Western Conference, Paul has taken the Hornets all the way to the top. They're leading a Southwest division that includes Dallas and San Antonio, the last two Western Champs. While James may lead the league in Player Efficiency Rating at 30.4, Paul sits in 3rd behind Amare Stoudemire. I value Paul's ability to win in the Western Conference, while James sits in fourth in East. Paul also turns the ball over less than James while shooting nearly the same percentage playing point guard.

Rookie of the Year

Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
Also Considered: Kevin Durant, Luis Scola, J.C. Navarro

While I think Durant will eventually win the award and be the better pro going forward, I like Horford's play this year more. Durant is shooting the ball 17 times a game because he's allowed to and Seattle doesn't have any other options. I'm not going to reward him for scoring 19/gm on only 40% shooting. He doesn't contribute any besides his scoring at this point. At 6'9" he should be grabbing more than 4 rebounds/gm. To me, Horford has been the better player. On the Hawks where he is only the fourth or fifth option behind Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, and Marvin Williams, and maybe even Josh Childress, Horford has still put in 9 pts/gm. He also grabs 10 rebounds a game as well. He does this while only playing 31 minutes/gm, hardly equal to the 35-40 minutes that most starters play. Horford ranks in the top 15 in rebounds/48 minutes and offensive rebounds/gm. His ability to score and rebound gives Atlanta a lot more than what Durant gives Seattle.

Most Improved Player

Andrew Bynum, L.A. Lakers
Also Considered: Hedo Turkoglu, Rudy Gay, Chris Kaman

Why did L.A. trade for Pau Gasol? Would they have done it if Bynum had not gotten hurt? I'm not so sure. Bynum's absence was a big blow to the Lakers and it showed just how valuable he has become. Bynum averages 13.1 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 2.1 bpg, and shoots 64% from the field. Those are incredible numbers from a 20-year-old. This is a guy who had to fight Kwame Brown for playing time last year. Now, Bynum is a viable option in the triangle offense, not just some stiff for Bryant to use as screens. His size and ability to draw double teams opens up room on the perimeter for Farmar, Walton, and Radmanovic. Draft experts knew he'd be a project when he was picked three years ago, but I'm not sure many would imagine him coming along so quickly.

Coach of the Year

Nate McMillan, Portland Trail Blazers
Also Considered: Byron Scott, Reggie Theus

Without Greg Oden, many thought the Blazers would tag along with the Sonics and T'Wolves at the bottom of the standings. Instead, the Baby Blazers have actually spent time in first place in their division. Though they've recently fallen back to earth a bit, they are still five games over .500 in the competitive West. Led by the combo of LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy, Portland used a 13-game winning streak to vault itself into contention. McMillan has done his best to keep them there, although their lack of a third scoring threat has hurt somewhat. Travis Outlaw and Martell Webster are decent on the wings, but they aren't yet consistent enough to help. Aldridge could use Oden to help inside, instead he has former lottery picks Channing Frye and Joel Pryzbilla. Frye can't play inside, relying on a jumper instead. Przybilla has always been a good shot-blocker, but that's all he's ever been. For McMillan to have this team where they are, it's surprising.

Another Day, Another NBA Blockbuster

2008-02-13T17:32:00.000-05:00

Seems like we get one of these every day doesn't it? The NBA, especially the Western Conference, has been rocked the past two weeks by three major trades.

After the Lakers stole Pau Gasol from Memphis for basically nothing, Phoenix gave up a relatively young All-Star Shawn Marion for a past-his-prime Shaquille O'Neal. I've already given my thoughts on that trade, and I still don't like it for Phoenix. Today, we get news that Dallas has traded for Jason Kidd. As John Hollinger quickly noted today, this reeks of panic.

Dallas gives up Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse, DeSagana Diop, Devean George, Maurice Ager, $3 million, and two future first-round picks for Kidd, Malik Allen, Antoine Wright, and second-round pick.

Ever since this was first talked about in the off-season, I have thought it was idiotic for the Mavericks. Clearly this a trade of Kidd for Harris. Many people involved with the trade think the Nets will buyout Stack's contract, allowing him to potentially resign with the Mavs after 30 days. The other players are involved mainly for contractual purposes. Why are they giving up their young 26-year-old for a 36-year-old? Even if you believe that Kidd brings "intangibles" and "leadership" that Harris doesn't have yet, Dallas is still giving up a great bench scorer in Stackhouse and a superb inside defender in Diop. Who else can score off Dallas's bench besides Jason Terry? Eddie Jones and Trenton Hassell aren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard at this point in their careers. There's no guarantee that Stack comes back to Dallas. He could wind up with plenty of other contenders, Detroit anyone?

I also find it funny that Dallas would let go of Diop even though Shaq is now back in the West. Remember when teams would stock up on back-of-the-bench seven-footers to give more fouls on Shaq? Why else would Detroit hold on to Elden Campbell and Dale Davis? Dallas used to use stiffs like D.J. Mbenga and Shawn Bradley for those reasons as well. At least Mark Cuban shares the same opinion as me on one thing. Shaq is no longer the dominating force of old. Erick Dampier is apparently good enough if the matchup occurs.

But, back to main point of the trade, Harris for Kidd. Devin Harris is a young fourth-year point guard in the midst of his best season yet. He's currently averaging 14.4 ppg, 5.3 apg, and shooting 48% from the field. Kidd, in his 14th year, is averaging close to a triple-double (11.3 ppg, 10.4 apg, 8 rpg). However, he turns the ball over 3.6/gm and shooting only 37% from the field. The big reason for his monster rebounding totals are his horrible frontcourt. With Nenad Krstic sidelined, people Jason Collins and Malik Allen have played far too often. As John Hollinger noted, since Josh Boone began playing more, Kidd's totals have predictably gone down. Frankly, I wouldn't trade Harris straight-up for Kidd. Kidd has more experience you say? Harris went to the finals two years ago with Dallas and lost. Kidd went to the Finals twice with New Jersey and lost twice. I doubt one more Finals loss is worth it. If Cuban wasn't willing to commit to Harris learning and growing, why didn't he just keep Steve Nash four years ago instead of drafting Harris? Now, Harris has grown into his starting role, averaging career highs, and you want to get rid of him for a washed-up Kidd? This whole trade confuses me. Cuban is giving up too many good players and draft picks for a player that won't contribute as much as his name hints at.

As for the Nets, I love what they're doing here. They now have two potentially great point guards in Marcus Williams and Harris. Without giving up any of their core, they just made their team younger and more explosive. They won't need Kidd's rebounding as younger players like Sean Williams and Josh Boone improve at power forward. Their frontcourt gets much deeper with the addition of Diop as a defensive presence to back up the offensive-minded Krstic. Although likely near the bottom of the round, they still get two first-round picks as well. For once, teams won't be able to double off Kidd onto Jefferson and Carter. Harris is too quick and too good of a shooter to allow that. His ability to penetrate is also much better than Kidd's as well. This will add an entirely new dimension to the Nets.

NBA All-Star Game Thoughts

2008-02-12T17:45:00.001-05:00

Courtesy of Bill Simmons's latest links column on ESPN, I have found this link from NBA.com. It lists the top 10 plays from each All-Star game dating back to 1969. It's really quite amazing to watch the game transform and see how the players' styles differ. The game was so much quieter and slower in the 1970s. It would take people like George Gervin, Julius Erving, and Magic Johnson to liven it up a bit. It took me about two hours, but I watched all of the videos from each game and made some notes. Hope you enjoy, and please, watch these videos yourself, they're unbelievable.

Having watched basketball most of the 90s, I found it odd seeing certain players as All-Stars. It's hard for me to remember ever thinking of these people as All-Star quality. Good players, yes. All-Stars, no. Yet, here they are: Cliff Robinson, Horace Grant, Jeff Hornacek, Hersey Hawkins, Antonio Davis, Wally Szczerbiak, Vin Baker, Anthony Mason, Jamaal Magloire, Kenyon Martin, Mark Eaton, and Jeff Ruland.
Some players just don't fit as All-Stars either, as good as they may be in the regular season. Spot-shooters and lumbering centers need not apply. I'm thinking here of Richard Hamilton, Joe Dumars, Reggie Miller, Mitch Richmond, and Rik Smits. Watching those players in the All-Star Game didn't seem right. Maybe I'm just used to what the game has become -- a dunk contest. When the game meant something, I'm sure those guys would've fit right in.
Speaking of Smits, check out the 1998 game to see him throw a behind-the-back pass to Jayson Williams for a dunk. Read those two names again. Not sure those two ever hung out outside of that play, huh? Can you imagine the Dunking Dutchmen and murderer Jayson Williams drinking a few beers together?
Who was better at the post-dunk celebration? Shaq or Shawn Kemp? O'Neal had that swagger down pat, but Kemp's crotch-grabbing and utter disdain for anyone who got in his way was priceless.
I know this has been said ever since Dirk Nowitzki came in the league, but he reminds me so much of Larry Bird. It's just that it's unfair to Bird since he actually won something during his career. But, the way they move so awkwardly while still scoring the ball is unfathomable. They are the two least graceful wing players I've seen in the NBA.
Going with the graceful topic, how about Shaq running the break. It seems like he breaks it out every year. Say what you will about his body falling apart now, but the man could run like a guard until about three years ago.
Vince Carter had a highlight dunk seemingly every year this decade. Yet, what has he done in games that matter? It's a shame Carter didn't get to go this year, we'll never know how many meaningless dunks he could've put down.
I loved watching the 2003 game live and it brought back some good memories as I watched it again. That was Michael Jordan's last game and it came down to the final seconds. Jordan had a fadeaway that put the East on top with 5 seconds left, but the West ultimately won. His other highlight during the game was a simple baseline layup that would have been a power dunk or reverse layup five years earlier. The fadeaway showed what Jordan added to his game as he aged; the layup showed what his game lost as he aged.
One of the best things to watch in the early 90s games was the battle between Shaq and Ewing on the East and Olajuwon and Robinson in the West. Those four had some great plays against one another from 1993-1995, and even more in the years before Shaq joined in.
It was sad to watch Penny Hardaway, Grant Hill, and Ralph Sampson perform so well knowing their careers would be ruined by injuries later. Hardaway was to be the next great tall PG after Magic. He and Shaq were ready to dominate the East and take the Bulls' throne. Yet, Penny's injuries and Shaq's departure to LA ultimately sealed the Magic's fate. Hill was much like LeBron James, just not quite as strong. But, his ability to slash to the hole, play point guard and grab seven boards a game was a necessity for the mid-90s Pistons. Sampson was a 7'4" giant out of Virginia that was supposed to team with Olajuwon to lead Houston to a title. Yet, Sampson could never stay healthy long enough with such a long, skinny frame.
The announcers are quite prevalent in the videos as well. Most of the voices are recognizable, as they rarely change. It's Brent Musberger, Bob Costas, and Marv Albert for the most part. The best is when Magic Johnson does the color in 1993-94. Just sit back and listen to some of the stuff he says, or tries to say. One year, Mike Fratello calls Charles Barkley, "an unusual physical specimen." When watching Barkley play, you sort of get that feeling as well. For someone standing 6'5", Barkley was an amazing dunker, rebounder, and shot-blocker. It also helped that he looked like a runaway freight train on the court. With a body like Kirby Puckett and a scowl like Ray Lewis, it's no wonder he scored so many points.
For an All-Star game to have success, many experts have said teams need great point guard play. Watching this series of videos, it's quite obvious that the best plays tend to come from a select few point guards. In fact, it's about one per generation. Recently, Jason Kidd has been the best at throwing the alley-oops and leading the break. Before that was Isaiah Thomas and Magic Johnson. Thomas was probably the best I've seen at throwing the court-length bounce pass and the baseball-style bullet pass into the post. Magic made more dekes, ball fakes, head fakes, and general trickery than any other guard. It's a wonder more teammates didn't get hit in the head. Lastly, Nate "Tiny" Archibald was the man in the 1970s.
These guys also had to have someone throw to. I also noticed four players stand out on the wing, again, one from each generation. Recently, it's been Kobe Bryant. His All-Star certainly reflects his overall play, unlike someone like Vince Carter. Before Kobe there was Jordan of course. Then there was Dr. J himself, Julius Erving. When everyone else seemed to be playing below the rim, Dr. J was playing above it. His style of play was just so much different from the majority of guys in his time. He dunked over Artis Gilmore (7'2") and Kareem. Granted, David Thompson and George Gervin were no slouches. In fact, Gervin and Erving teamed up a couple times and from what I saw, I don't think you can get a better or more athletic pair of wings, even now. The earlier years didn't share the same type of athleticism, but Oscar Robertson was easily the best all-around player out there.

Who is the Best Golfer of All Time?

2008-02-11T15:32:00.000-05:00

A recent debate between friends of mine at a local bar inspired today's post. Simply, who is the best golfer of all time? Is it Tiger Woods or Jack Nicklaus? Much like arguments in other sports, this debate spans different eras, styles of play, levels of competition, equipment and playing surface changes, and medical advances. I will attempt to divide up this post into separate issues that I believe make up the basis of the argument. If there are any other issues to be raised at the end of the post, please let me know.

First, let's examine where Tiger stands statistically compared to Nicklaus at the same time in their careers.

Woods has won 62 PGA Tour events (13 majors) in his 12-year career. Nicklaus won 73 times (18 majors) in his 22-year career. When Nicklaus was 32, he had won 38 events, including nine majors. Even for those who support Nicklaus, this part of the argument is pretty one-sided. Woods has been on a remarkable pace ever since he entered the Tour. For NFL running backs, 32 is the end of the line. For golfers, it's the prime of their career. As shown in the stats above, Nicklaus had a Hall of Fame career just between the ages of 32-40.

Now, Woods's future, and where he ultimately places himself on golf's leaderboard, will depend on how he performs in his 30s and 40s. His work ethic is unquestionably the best in pro golf. How many players at the top of a sport will willingly throw away a whole season reworking a swing that had already won a few majors? Some so-called experts said Woods's dedication would wane after his marriage and subsequent birth of his daughter. Yet, just like Nicklaus, he has managed to work a family life around his golf life just fine. That development will play no part in Woods's future.

With the way Woods keeps himself in shape and how he always is looking to improve, I have no doubt that Tiger will continue to find success as he ages. Strength training and conditioning are much more important and widely known today than they were during Nicklaus's heyday in the 60s and 70s. These techniques will only serve to keep Tiger's body healthy and young as he ages. That will allow him to push the majors and PGA Tour wins record out of reach by the time he hits 45. Now, we shouldn't punish Nicklaus for not being able to use these modern medical advances. His win at the 1986 Masters at age 46 should only prove that he was one of the best golfers of all time. I just want to point out how far Tiger can take these records because of the new technology and techniques. But, as I showed in the aforementioned stats, Tiger's accomplishments at similar points in their careers shows how much better Tiger is than Jack.

Another point of contention is level of competition each man has faced. Woods is facing players from across the globe every time he tees it up. The Tour now attracts golfers from Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, United Kingdom, and Spain. In fact, the 2008 PGA Tour lists 78 international members from 19 different countries. For a comparison, in 1970 there were seven international winners on the Tour. In 2007, that number was up to 13. Basically, Woods is playing against a much larger pool of players than Nicklaus was. In simple economic terms of supply and demand, the expanding talent base leads to higher competition. The Tour doesn't expand as more countries turn out top golfers. Those golfers just have to be better and better to find a spot on the Tour. When looking at it from this point of view, it's amazing that Woods has accomplished so much while constantly facing the world's best.

When I say the world's best, it's usually quite true. Because of the large purses at today's events, Woods can afford to pick and choose what events he plays in now. Therefore, he typically skips many of the PGA Tour events in preparation for the majors or World Golf events. These tournaments are the creme of the crop in golf. Only the best golfers are invited and the courses are some of the toughest in the world. For much of Nicklaus's career, he did not have this option. He played in many more events than Tiger, which his why he accumulated more top-10s and runner-up finishes. Nicklaus's backers like to cite those stats when arguing his case. But, really what matters most -- wins or times in the top 10? The answer is easy.

Finally, I want to address one more point. I have heard from some Nicklaus supporters that he played with inferior equipment on less refined courses than Woods. Here's my response to that, "So did everyone he played with." It wasn't like Nicklaus was putting up those win totals while everyone else was using equipment from 2008. I don't have much more to say about this silly argument. This is not like basketball where you can argue that Rodman was a better rebounder than Chamberlain even though Wilt routinely pulled down 25 rebounds a game. The game was different than; people missed more shots while shooting more times. We're talking golf where individual stats like greens/fairways in regulation dont't make or break a golfer. It's an individual sport that rewards one thing: wins.

How did Nicklaus stack up against his contemporaries and how Woods do against his? Nicklaus won less often than Woods did through the age of 32. Woods also does it against tougher competition from a larger talent base around the world. To me, there is little question as to who is the better golfer.

2004 Pistons v. 2008 Pistons

2008-02-08T15:38:00.000-05:00

With no major news coming out of Detroit today, I thought I'd take a look at the current Pistons and compare them with our most recent title team of 2004.

Center
Antonio McDyess v. Ben Wallace

McDyess --- 9.6 ppg, 49% FG, 8.8 rpg, 1.4 apg, .9 spg, .6 bpg, and 1.o tpg in 31.2 mpg
Wallace --- 9.5 ppg, 42% FG, 12.4 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.8 spg, 3 bpg, 1.5 tpg in 37.7 mpg

McDyess easily wins the offensive end of the battle, putting up the same amount of points in far less minutes. His ability to hit the 17 ft. jump shot spreads out the defense and allows for movement in our offense. With Wallace, the Pistons were constantly playing 4-on-5 and getting stagnant in the halfcourt. However, Wallace's defense was huge for the Pistons, effectively neutralizing the opponents' inside presence. It was not always the man Wallace was guarding, though. Big Ben was at his best coming from off the ball to make a steal, block, or weakside rebound. With Dice's knee problems and declining speed, he can be beat by quicker big men in the post.

Power Forward
Rasheed Wallace v. Rasheed Wallace

Wallace 08 --- 12.9 ppg, 43% FG, 7.3 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.35 spg, 1.6 bpg, and 1.3 tpg in 31.8 mpg
Wallace 04 --- 13.7 ppg, 43% FG, 7 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.1 spg, 2.1 bpg, and 1.3 tpg in 30.7 mpg

It's actually quite eerie how similar his stats are. Normally a player in his 30s would show more decline in his stats, but Wallace has stayed remarkably consistent. He may not have been worth the contract he signed after our title, but it was needed to keep him (and his defensive presence) on our team. His backup, Mehmet Okur, was allowed to sign with Utah because of his poor defense, and he's done nothing to change that reputation in Salt Lake.

Small Forward
Tayshaun Prince v. Tayshaun Prince

Prince 08 --- 13.4 ppg, 44%FG, 4.8 rpg, 3 apg, .5 spg, .4 bpg, and 1.1 tpg in 33.8 mpg
Prince 04 --- 10.3 ppg, 47% FG, 4.8 rpg, 2.3 apg, .8 spg, .8 bpg, and 1.5 tpg in 32.9 mpg

Again, we see a player who has stayed very similar to his '04 counterpart. There are some telling signs of growth, though. Prince has raised his scoring average three points, which is actually a dropoff from the past three seasons. From watching him play, I don't see his talent declining. Rather, I think teams are placing more emphasis on stopping him, and he has had to take tougher shots against stronger defenders. As a defender, his steals and blocks have gone down, but again, I think teams are more aware of him and don't test him as much. This theory works on baseball outfielders as well. How else to explain someone like Alfonso Soriano at the top of the assist leaderboard? It's because teams test him regularly, knowing he isn't a true outfielder. As opponents get more and more data on the player, they test him less often, resulting in fewer assists (or in Prince's case, steals).

Shooting Guard
Richard Hamilton v. Richard Hamilton

Hamilton 08 --- 18.7 ppg, 50% FG, 3.3 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.1 spg, .2 bpg, and 1.9 tpg in 35.3 mpg
Hamilton 04 --- 17.6 ppg, 46%FG, 3.6 rpg, 4 apg, 1.3 spg, .2 bpg, and 1.5 tpg in 35.5 mpg

Seeing a trend yet? This group of Pistons is remarkably consistent, proving why they've stayed at the top for so many years. One major change for Hamilton over the last four years has been his improved three-point shooting. Hamilton averaged 15 shots a game in 2004 and this year. But, those shots have been dispersed differently. In '04, he shot less than one 3-pointer per game, making 27%. This year, he's shooting 2 a game, making 47%! In fact, Hamilton led the league in 3FG% last year and will participate in the 3-point contest at the All-Star Game. This has made Hamilton a much more versatile player and harder to shut down.

Point Guard
Chauncey Billups v. Chauncey Billups

Billups 08 --- 17.6 ppg, 45% FG, 3 rpg, 7.1 apg, 1.3 spg, .2 bpg, and 2.1 tpg in 34 mpg
Billups 04 --- 16.9 ppg, 39% FG, 3.5 rpg, 5.7 apg, 1.1 spg, .1 bpg, and 2.4 tpg in 35.4 mpg

In Billups, I see a player who was struggling to fit in Larry Brown's slower-paced offense. While he did lead Detroit to a title, he is a much better player than he was then. He has a become a more efficient, smarter point guard. Perhaps this was due to Brown's relentless teaching or maybe it's because of Flip Saunders' more open offense. Either way, Billups scores more, passes better, and turns the ball over less than he did four years ago.

Bench
Forwards & Centers
Mehmet Okur, Corliss Williamson, Elden Campbell v. Jason Maxiell, Jarvis Hayes, Amir Johnson

Okur --- 9.6 ppg, 46%FG, 5.9 rpg in 22 mpg
Maxiell --- 8 ppg, 52%FG, 5.3 rpg in 23 mpg

Williamson --- 9.5 ppg, 51%FG, 3.2 rpg in 19.9 mpg
Hayes --- 6.7 ppg, 44%FG, 2.4 rpg in 16.1 mpg

Campbell --- 5.6 ppg, 44%FG, 3.2 rpg in 13.7 mpg
Johnson --- 2.7 ppg, 52%FG, 2.9 rpg in 8.5 mpg

In 2004, the Pistons bench was used to compensate for B. Wallace's inept offensive game. Big mean like Okur and Corliss could score quickly and in many different ways. Okur was deadly from 3-point range for a man his size. Corliss was Maxiell when Baby Max was still in college. Williamson struggled defending the quicker 3's on the perimeter, but could was also fast enough to beat the bigger 4's and 5's inside. Campbell was our size off the bench, used to defend people like Ilgauskas and Shaq. However, at that point in his career, his offense was limited to tip-ins and putbacks.
This season, our frontcourt doesn't have to score as much off the bench. Maxiell and Johnson are relied upon mainly for their energy and quickness. Maxiell is a monster on the boards, but at times can be out of position due to his aggressiveness. Johnson has just begun to get playing time, but isn't consistent because of foul trouble. When he does get extensive time, he can rebound well and shows developing post moves. Hayes is something Detroit lacked in 2004: a wing that can defend well and shoot the 3. He's shown a great fadeaway in the post and the speed to defend players Corliss never could.

Guards
Mike James, Lindsey Hunter v. Rodney Stuckey, Arron Afflalo

James --- 6.3 ppg, 40%FG, 3.7 apg in 19.7 mpg
Afflalo --- 3.4 ppg, 43%FG, 1.6 rpg in 11.5 mpg

Hunter --- 3.5 ppg, 34%FG, 2.6 apg in 20 mpg
Stuckey --- 4.7 ppg, 35%FG, 2.2 apg in 15.1 mpg

Our guard group is quite interesting. James and Hunter were known for their trapping and relentless defense off the bench. James was a shooter who could get hot quickly, but he was also too small to defend some of the bigger guards. In 2004, Hunter was beginning the decline phase of his career. He averaged under 7 ppg for just the second time in his career and couldn't shoot consistently anymore. However, his defense was still good enough to give him playing time.
We go from two old guards to two rookies. Afflalo has proven to be one of our team's best defenders. If Prince is off the floor, Afflalo can defend the other team's best wing and we don't miss a beat. His scoring isn't quite there yet, but as long has plays top-notch defense, the scoring is just an added bonus. Stuckey is our scoring guard off the bench. His defense isn't nearly as good as Hunter or James, but offense is his calling card. His ability to penetrate and score at the basket is something the Pistons have lacked off the bench for years.

Final Opinion
The 2004 Pistons rode an amazing defense and timely offense to the NBA title over the Lakers. Hindered by a blackhole at center, their offense struggled to find a rhythm many times during the year. When it mattered most, though, the Pistons used defense and takeaways to create easy scoring opportunities for themselves.
This year, our defense is down slightly, but still near the top of the league. Our increased pace just makes it look like worse than it is. But, with a vastly improved offense, I think the 2008 Pistons are the better of the two teams. We're younger and more athletic off the bench and our veteran starters have shown little sign of decline.

Odds and Ends for a Thursday

2008-02-07T13:49:00.000-05:00

There's a lot of topics that I want to talk about today, so I thought I'd do a little bullets format today to get through them all. Hope you enjoy.

Shaq to Phoenix: Was it really needed Phoenix? This is a Suns team that only missed the Western Conference Finals last year because of bogus officiating by Tim Donaghy. They gave away their best post defender, Kurt Thomas, in the offseason to save money, and now they bring in Shaq, who's making 20 mil/yr? Obviously, Shaq is the better player, but he is worth the extra money, giving up Shawn Marion, and the 2 first round picks given to Seattle? No, absolutely not, not at this point in his career. O'Neal has produced at carer-lows for a second consecutive season and shows no signs of being able to run in Phoenix's offense. I watched today's press conference and Shaq said all the right things about wanting to make his teammates better, igniting the break, etc. But, when it comes to the actual game, he is a shell of his former self and can no longer defend the West's elite big men like Tim Duncan, Yao Ming, and Carlos Boozer. O'Neal is basically a last-ditch effort by Steve Kerr to get this current Suns core to the Finals. Nash, Hill, and Bell aren't getting any younger, and Marion had already expressed his desire to follow Joe Johnson out of the Southwest. Kerr had to do something because Marion was going to leave this summer anyway. But, to give up an electric wing who can rebound like a PF for an aging overweight and gimpy center reeks of panic.
Also, as bad as this looks for Phoenix, this trade was amazing for Miami. To get out of O'Neal's final two years and get Marion and Marcus Banks in return was a steal. Banks will get every opportunity to unseat Jason Williams at point guard because, seriously, is Chris Quinn really their PG of the future? Marion can still opt out of his contract this summer, but that gives Miami the ability to either resign him and build around him and Wade or let him go and use the cap space to sign someone else. Faced with the unenviable task of rebuilding an aging and one-dimensional roster, Pat Riley and Heat ownership just swindled the Suns into taking away their biggest problem.
The Pistons didn't surprise me last night against Miami. This Pistons team of recent memory has always played up/down to its opponents. Witness the Bobcats surprisingly good record against Detroit in past years. Detroit just doesn't seem to care when it comes to playing the lower rung of the NBA. Wade got his 30 points, that's not the problem. The problem comes when people like Mark Blount, Dorell Wright, and Alexander Johnson combine for 39 points and 21 rebounds. These games are inevitable in the long NBA winter, but the Pistons are a good enough team to at least win by 10.
Welcome back Dickie V. It was a perfect scenario for his return from vocal chord surgery in Chapel Hill last night. Unfortunately, the magnitude was lessened a bit by Ty Lawson's injury. That combined with backup PG Bobby Frasor's leg injury earlier this year, and UNC was down to 3rd-string PG Quentin Thomas. His inexperience was obvious all game long, as evidenced by his 6 turnovers and 4 fouls. What surprised me more was the production from the Heels' other guards, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green. They shot 4-24 in a game where Duke shot 45% just from long range. Their inability to match the Duke guards killed UNC when it needed big shots. The Heels' advantage inside was also limited throughout the game. In pregame predictions, the media constantly hyped UNC's inside prowess compared to Duke's superior guard play. Even though Tyler Hansbrough put up 28 and 18, he scored much of that on jump shots and was only 4-9 from the FT line. His supporting cast was nonexistent. Deon Thompson was plagued with foul trouble all game long and Alex Stepheson was a turnover machine in his 13 minutes (5 miscues). With the inside threat neutralized, Duke used its versatility and balance (6 players in double figures) to wear down UNC and pull away in the end.
A few posts ago, I talked about the brilliance of K-St forward Michael Beasley. What'd he do last night? Oh, nothing except 35 points on 15-21 shooting, 13 rebounds, 3 steals, and 2 3-pointers. And his supporting cast continues to help him as Bill Walker put up 17 and 9 and Jacob Pullen scored 11 and dished out 8 assists.
Anyone looking for baseball steroid coverage or Patriots spy scandal news won't find anything here. This thing is an absolute joke. Our government has larger problems than some ballplayers using steroids or NFL teams spying on other teams. Until something is definitively proven and the actual sport is affected, I don't care. I root for Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa. I could care less about steroid usage, which wasn't even illegal in baseball when they allegedly used it. And besides, what is a Cortisone shot? It's a steroid and nobody seems to care about those. It's modern medicine and it's going to keep progressing and there's nothing baseball can do to stunt it. Better surgical procedures, LASIK, contacts, playing conditions, travel accomodations, and video equipment have all made today's players better. Why only look at steroids?

The Agony That Is Michigan Basketball

2008-02-06T15:43:00.000-05:00

Another game, another excrutiating loss for the Boys in Maize & Blue. Michigan fell to rival Ohio St. last night in Columbus 65-55. What started out so promising turned into a painful double-digit loss.

Michigan stayed close the entire game, in fact holding the lead for a large portion of the game. However, the success was more of a mirage than anything. The only reason they stayed as close as they did was because Ohio St. played so poorly.

Ohio St.'s best players, Kosta Koufos (4-13) and Jamar Butler (4-12), shot bad enough that Michigan was able to hang around. Butler was at least able to contribute nine assists and key late-game three over Ekpe Udoh. But, the Buckeyes also turned it over 13 times against a Michigan team that isn't exactly a defensive power. Freshman guard Evan Turner was the main culprit with four turnovers --- compared to his zero points and 14 minutes.

With Koufos and Butler held in check most of the game, one would think the Wolverines could take charge and build a lead, right? Sadly, that was not the case. Much like Ohio St., Michigan's stars didn't come to play either. Manny Harris, the leader of the players-only meeting Monday that was supposed to pump up the team, scored only seven points in 35 minutes. DeShawn Sims had six on 2-7, and Ron Coleman could only manage three on 1-8.

Thankfully, and quite surprisingly considering every other game this year, Michigan's supporting cast provided some offense. Kelvin Grady, Jevohn Shepherd, and Anthony Wright combined for 25 points on 8-16 shooting. Of those three, Grady's contributions are the only ones likely to continue.

Another problem is our utter lack of inside scoring. Othello Hunter, more of a Horace Grant than a Greg Oden, had 15 and 12 against Michigan's soft interior. Sims is a wing masquerading as PF this year; Zach Gibson is not nearly strong enough to defend Big 10 centers; Udoh is really our best defender inside, but his shot-blocking passion sometimes puts him out of position to defend properly.

That problem extends to offense as well, because Sims and Gibson are more jump-shooters than post-up players. Udoh, again, is our best player down low, but his footwork and post moves are not yet dependable enough. This leaves our guards and wings to launch threes until their arms fall off. Michigan leads the conference in three-point attempts, while our actual 3FG% is 10th! If that's the way our offense is going to run, there is no reason to think we can win any close games. As soon as the shots stop falling, our offense collapses. Sadly, most of our games begin like this, leaving little doubt as to the game's outcome.

Our record sitting at 1-9 in conference, I've taken to looking ahead to next year already. But, unless these players dramatically change their games in the offseason, something I've seen very little of from past Michigan players, we're staring at another losing season. The only players guaranteed to leave are Coleman and David Merritt. Neither player will be missed as Coleman should never have been more than a bit bench player and Merritt was a walk-on who should not have been forced to play major minutes. Our starting lineup will once again feature Sims, Grady, Harris, and Udoh. Those four seem to be a solid core to build around. They're all versatile and athletic, but they need to work on their shooting and not turning the ball over. Coming off the bench will be Gibson, Shepherd, and Anthony Wright again. They will be joined by transfer Laval Lucas-Perry in January. Incoming freshmen include 7'0" center Ben Cronin, who looks to be a project, and 6'2" shooter Stuart Douglass. Again, though, unless our inside players bulk up and defend better, we'll be exposed once more.

Bob Knight Resigns

2008-02-04T19:55:00.000-05:00

First reported by the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal, Texas Tech basketball coach Bob Knight resigned today. His son, Pat, a longtime assistant and former player under his dad at Indiana, will take over.

Frankly, the numbers speak for themselves when talking about Knight. 902 wins, 11 Big Ten titles, 3 NCAA titles, and 5 Final Fours.

But when it comes to my own personal opinion of him, I never liked the guy. Why?

I am a Michigan man. Knight coached at Indiana until 2001, and as a rule I don't root for any other Big 10 teams.
Knight hasn't been that successful since I started following sports in 1992. After 1994, Indiana never advanced past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. During his time at Texas Tech, the Red Raiders made it past the first weekend once in three tries. While I no doubt appreciate his career-long success, his recent history hasn't been kind.
The guy is a jerk. Choking, hitting players, throwing chairs, and berating students on campus derail his legacy for me. I just don't like him or his teams on the court enough for me to overlook that side of his personality.

While today may be a sad day for most college basketball fans, I'm happy to see Knight go. His act made him bigger than his teams and that trait has only spread in recent years. With more and more exposure, coaches create these personas that allow them to gain popularity and command more money. Men like Rick Majerus, Bob Huggins, Nick Saban, Dennis Franchione, and Bobby Petrino make mockeries of the NCAA with the way they sell themselves as bigger than their teams. Of course, none of these men have the same violence in their attitudes that Knight has, the spectacle they create in the media is no doubt intentional and certainly reeks of Knight's influence.

Granderson Here To Stay

2008-02-04T17:56:00.000-05:00

While most people are talking Super Bowl today, I feel there's nothing left to say that hasn't already been said. The Detroit media has mostly concerned itself with Tom Brady and his Michigan ties. Other than perhaps seeing Amani Toomer do well, there wasn't much for us Detroiters to root for.

There was development that came out of Downtown today that does matter, though. The Tigers locked up centerfielder Curtis Granderson for five more years at about 6 million per. This does a couple of things for the team.

1. We keep Granderson on our team through his prime. By the time the contract is over, he'll be 32 and likely on the downside of his career. While that may seem sudden, keep in mind that he will be 27 next month already. Though he has only played two full major league seasons, he spent four years in college and another four years in the minors.

2. We keep Granderson at a below-market price. As a FA, Granderson would no doubt earn more than 6 million per year. However, by signing him before he hits the open market, we can keep him at a reduced rate. With our rapidly increasing payroll, it pays to be smart about contracts like this. The Yankees had not learned that lesson until recently, forgoing younger players and signing older veterans at double the cost.

3. Granderson can stick around as our bridge to the next great Tigers teams. Let's face it, the Tigers window of opportunity is slim right now. Our best players are old and injury-prone. Gary Sheffield is 39 and coming off a second-half of the season where he hit .172. Magglio Ordonez is 34 and just had his first fully healthy year since 2003. Carlos Guillen is 32 and injuries have diminished his range to the point that he now plays 1b. Finally, Pudge is 36, and while still durable, age has greatly lessened his impact on the offense.

Our minor league system has also been weakened heavily by the past two seasons worth of trades. Players like Humberto Sanchez, Jair Jurrjens, Andrew Miller, Gorkys Hernandez, and Cameron Maybin have all been shipped out in various traders. Because of these losses, and the inevitable declines in our current stars, Granderson will be counted on to be our offensive superstar in 2009 and beyond.

4. This may just be an extension of #3, but Granderson's dependability in the next 5 years will be a a major boost to restocking the rest of the team. Many baseball experts believe great teams are built on pitching and defense (especially D up the middle). We have the young pitchers in Verlander, Bonderman, and Rick Porcello to build on. We have the CF, now we just need to find that young catcher and SS to replace Pudge and Renteria. Those pieces might not be in our upper levels of the minors yet, but the fact that we already have half the puzzle helps a lot.

Pistons-Lakers Thoughts

2008-02-01T10:45:00.000-05:00

The Pistons made the Lakers look like the worst team they can be last night. Even in a one-point loss, L.A. showed how easily it can be beat.

Kobe Bryant got his 39, but it took him 25 shots and 11 turnovers (an NBA season-high) to do so. It was his teammates that failed to come through when he struggled. Derek Fisher had 15 and Ronny Turiaf had 12, but those two players aren't exactly creating their own shots. Where was Lamar Odom and Vlad Radmanovic? Or how about Kwame Brown doing something productive in the absence of Andrew Bynum?

It really is quite sad to watch Lamar Odom become a shell of his former self these days. He's rebounding at a solid 9.5/gm, but he only scores 13/gm. That's unacceptable for someone with his talent. Odom can be scoring 20/gm easily. Unfortunately, he has never been able to do so. 17 has been his highwater mark, once with the Clips and once with the Heat. He can't even blame this on the triangle offense or playing with Kobe. He only has to look at himself for that. This is someone who is 6'10" and never shot over 47%!

Enough of that, how about the Pistons' play? Save for a miserable third quarter, Detroit played well against one of the top teams in the West. Their defense shut down L.A.'s supporting cast and came through big when it mattered most. With four seconds left, L.A. had a chance to grab the lead, but Detroit did what his best in these moments. It took the ball out of Kobe's hands quickly, forcing the Lakers to change their plans without warning. Odom had to throw up an awkward-looking three and it found nothing but air.

The true theme for the Pistons should really be its bench, though. With McDyess and Wallace shooting poorly, the Pistons looked for more offense out of its backups. Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo were glad to help out. Both had 10 points on 7-9 shooting and only 2 turnovers. For Afflalo, this is nothing new. But Stuckey had been in a slump of late. After going 5 games and only totaling 4 points, he has now put in 17 in his last two. The Pistons need this Stuckey, the one that drive and dish and create opportunities at the stripe. Basically, we need Stuckey to show how much we don't need whatever is left of Lindsey Hunter in the playoffs.

Amir Johnson also continued his recent surge, grabbing nine rebounds in 13 minutes. Perhaps Johnson's presence is affecting Maxiell more than I thought. Baby Max only had one point on 0-4 shooting. Again, I hope he's just hitting a wall and he can bounce back after the All-Star break.

Photo credit: AP Duane Burleson

Beasley Is A Beast

2008-01-31T10:51:00.000-05:00

Even though the game wasn't televised nationally, I hope everyone realizes by now who the national player of the year should be. Freshman forward Michael Beasley is showing why he is the projected #1 pick in the 2008 NBA Draft. With his 25 point, 6 rebound, and 4-4 from long range performance, Beasley keyed an upset over undefeated Kansas that sent Wildcat students running onto the court. Voters may be loathe to give the Player of the Year to another freshman (Kevin Durant won last season), but Beasley has been a monster from Day One. Only once has he scored under 10 points, and just twice has he pulled down less than 10 rebounds. Just compare his numbers to the past two great one-and-done frosh, Durant and Carmelo Anthony.

Anthony, 2003
22.2 pg, 10.0 rpg, 2.2. apg, .9 bpg, 1.6 spg, 45% FG, 36.4 mpg

Durant, 2007
25.8 pg, 11.1 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.9 bpg, 1.9 spg, 47% FG, 35.9 mpg

Beasley, 2008
25.3 pg, 12.4 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.7 bpg, 1.3 spg, 56% FG, 30.0 mpg

Even just looking at Big 12 play, Beasley has stepped up his scoring to 28/gm, while still rebounding at 9.8/gm.

It seems pretty clear to me who the best of the three is. In 6 less minutes per game, Beasley is outscoring, outrebounding and outshooting Anthony and Durant. Yes, yes, I know he plays closer to the basket than the other two, but he's also 20-46 from 3pt land.

Beasley needs his teammates to step up their games if he wants a shot at a national title, a la Melo. Anthony was helped by Hakim Warrick, Gerry McNamara, and Kueth Duany on the perimeter and the often overlooked duo of Craig Forth and Jeremy McNeil inside. Even though Warrick is the only NBAer from that group, the other guys did enough to help secure the title. Warrick's championship-saving block on Kansas's Michael Lee for example.

Durant was done in by lack of support in his NCAA tourney loss to USC last season. Some may blame the offense on revolving around Durant too much, but there's no excuse for the lack of help he received. Durant put up 30 and 9, A.J. Abrams scored 20, and no one else had more than 6. They were especially exposed inside as Taj Gibson totaled 17 and 14 against Texas's weak interior.

Beasley can already count on sophomore forward Bill Walker as his running mate. As for everyone else, that's yet to be determined. Granted, the Wildcats are 5-0 in Big 12 play and seem to have a relatively easy road ahead. But, to sustain their spot at the top, they're going to need other people to step up. Freshman guard Jacob Pullen did his part last night, scoring 20 points off the bench. That type of production, along with increased inside help from lumbering center Ron Anderson will go along way towards helping Beasley win a title.

Pistons-Pacers thoughts

2008-01-30T10:54:00.000-05:00

Now you see him, now you don't.

With Rasheed Wallace, you never know which persona will show up at any given time. Is he the sulking, moody Wallace who will badger refs instead of playing hard? Or is he the inside-outside threat that can change games with his shot-blocking ability and a variety of post moves?

Last night in the Pistons' 110-104 win over the Pacers, he was a little of both.

Against an Indiana lineup that boasted Troy Murphy and Jeff Foster as its only two viable post players (Jermaine O'Neal sat with an injury), Wallace exploded after a quiet first quarter. He put up 24 pts, 10 bds, and 3 blks, including a 5-5 showing in the 2nd quarter.

Defensively, however, Sheed, along with McDyess, still had problems guarding the Pacer big men. Murphy and Foster used their jump-shooting ability to score 29 points and created enough havoc to grab 21 rebounds.

This should never happen against a Detroit defense. Granted, the Pistons held Danny Granger to 5-15 shooting, but the 104 points were the 2nd-highest given up by the Pistons all season. Travis Diener poured in 18 points and Mike Dunleavy put up 25. I know Dunleavy is having his best year yet, but Tayshaun and Hayes should still be able to hold him under 20.

Speaking of Jarvis Hayes, welcome back to the offense. The former Georgia Bulldog scored 13 points, his best outing since New Year's Eve. Detroit needs Hayes off the bench, especially as younger guys like Maxiell and Stuckey are hitting the wall. Those two aren't quite used to this extended playing time and it's showing in their stats.

Maxiell only averaged 6.9 ppg in January, his worst month this season (7.8 Nov, 10.1 Dec). His rebounds are also down to 4.6 in the month, compared to 5.5 and 5.8 earlier in the year. Some of this could be due to Walter Herrmann and Primoz Brezec coming in, or Amir Johnson working his way into the rotation. But, really, Maxiell has stayed in his spot as the 1st big off the bench, those three aren't effecting Maxiell too much.

Though, I am impressed by Amir's recent surge. His increased PT may have come from Joe Dumars' orders, not natural progression, but I'm still glad to see it. In the last 3 games, all Pistons wins, Johnson has averaged about 12 mpg, 4 ppg, 5 rpg, and 2 bpg. This is what Pistons fans have been waiting for out of Johnson. He has the talent to contribute to a championship-caliber team, he just needs the playing time. With Nazr Mohammed gone, and Brezec behind Amir on the bench, Johnson is finally putting up some promising numbers.

Santana Trade Finally Done?

2008-01-29T18:26:00.000-05:00

It was recently announced that, pending a physical and a new contract extension, Johan Santana has been traded to the NY Mets for OF Carlos Gomez and P Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey.

We all know what the Mets are getting: the best pitcher in baseball. And at age 29, Santana is in the prime of his career while switching to a weaker league and a pitcher's park. Looking at the Mets' rotation, Santana will slot in as the #1 pitcher in front of John Maine, Oliver Perez, and a bunch of question marks. The back of the rotation will be filled by Pedro Martinez, Orlando Hernandez, Mike Pelfrey, and perhaps Jason Vargas. Regardless, Santana and Maine will have to carry the bulk of the staff because of the inconsistency of Perez and the injury concerns of Pedro and El Duque.

Clearly, the Mets needed to make this move more than the Yankees or Red Sox. That's why when it came right down to it, the Yankees and Red Sox backed off and the Mets stepped up. The Twins were also more willing to send Santana to the NL rather than strengthening the AL powers.

This process took as long as it did simply because the Twins knew they had to get the best value they could. You're never going to get fair value giving away the game's best pitcher, but the Twins tried to get as close as they could. On the surface, this collection doesn't seem to stack up to the Red Sox and Yankees' previous offers. This makes me wonder how much the Twins needed to see Santana in the NL.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Phil Hughes are far superior talents to Carlos Gomez and Phil Humber. Ellsbury is an on-base machine with developing power, while Gomez has struggled to maintain his plate discipline. With newly-signed boppers like Morneau and Cuddyer in the middle of their order, the Twins would benefit from a CF that can get on base consistently. Plus, Ellsbury and Hughes have already proven themselves to be a bona fide major league starters while Gomez and Humber have struggled in their brief stints in the Show. Humber even had trouble producing in AAA, with a 4.27 ERA and 21 HR allowed in 139 innings.

The other two minor league pitchers that the Twins picked up, Guerra and Mulvey, are still a long way from the majors. Guerra, a big 6'5" righty, spent 2007 in High-A FSL for the St. Lucie Mets. He only allowed a .240 OBA and had a great groundball-flyball ratio, but he surrendered 25 walks in 89 innings leading to a 4.01 ERA. He also had control problems in 2006, walking 43 in 89 innings.

Mulvey, a 2nd round pick in 2006, spent the bulk of '07 in Double A. He kept the ball in the park, giving up just 4 HR. However, he wasn't fooling too many people either, allowing a .252 OBA, and doesn't project as more than a middle of the order starter.

I think the Twins missed on this trade as both the Yankees and Red Sox offers were better.

C-Webb to the Warriors

2008-01-29T02:03:00.000-05:00

For my first post, I thought I would address Chris Webber's imminent signing with the Golden St. Warriors. Beyond the fact that Webber and Nelson had a tenuous, to say the least, relationship in the past, the former Michigan forward simply cannot run anymore. In an offense like NellieBall, can Webber serve a purpose? Or, is he even needed? Let's take a look at some stats to find out.

After never posting a FG% below 46% in his first 10 seasons, Webber hasn't shot better than 45% in his past 4 years. His PPG also bottomed out at 11.2 in '07. He has basically been reduced to a spot-up jump shooter with little ability to create his own shot or drive to the basket. And, really, don't the Warriors already have one of those in Austin Croshere. Croshere is just as injury-prone and gimpy as Webber with the same mid-range jumper. Webber obviously has superior passing and rebounding, but is that edge enough to risk messing with the Warriors' fast-paced style?

There's no way around it, Webber cannot run in the Warriors' current offense. It isn't like Nelson can sub on the fly like hockey and throw C-Webb into the game when the fastbreak fails. The Warriors offense, built around quick jump shots and transition offense, might work if C-Webb could sit in the frontcourt all game long. But, while Monta Ellis and Baron Davis are speeding downcourt and dishing to Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington, Webber will be left in the dust at halfcourt still catching his breath.

In reality, Golden St.'s offense needs no help. It's averaging 110 pts/100 possessions and has an EFG% of 51%, which takes 3-pointers and free throws into account. The problem is its defense.
It's giving up 109 pts/100 poss. and allowing an EFG% of 50%. According to 82games.com, the Warriors have given up the highest PER (Player Efficiency Rating) from opponents' C and PF positions. Webber can never solve these problems. These days, he'd have a hard time defending my grandma, let alone Amare Stoudemire or Tim Duncan.

While Webber may be a flashy name, he won't elevate Golden St. past the Lakers in the Pacific. What the Warriors really need is for their younger bigs, Andris Biedrins and Brandan Wright, to step up their defense. Unfortunately, their lack of size and Webber's lack of speed will ultimately hurt Golden St. in the end.